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Evaluation of Track and Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean Using NCUM Global Model

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Abstract

The performance of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting-UK Met office (NCUM) global model in prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) at 25-km resolution is evaluated on the basis of 43 forecasts for 11 TCs. For this purpose, the analyses are carried out based on (1) basins of formation, (2) straight-moving and recurving/looping TCs, and (3) TC intensity at model initialization. The overall performance of NCUM global model has been found reasonably well in predicting TCs over NIO basin as it demonstrates a good skill irrespective of the region of formation, nature of movement, and intensity. The model has reasonably well predicted the tracks of the TCs in maximum number of the IC runs at different stages of the storms. The mean Direct Position Errors (DPEs) (skill with reference to CLIPER model) over the NIO vary from 97 to 248 km (5–57%) for 12–72-h forecast lengths. The NCUM model is found to be more skillful for track prediction of TCs when initialized at the Severe Cyclone Stage rather than at the Cyclonic Stage or lower. Therefore, the DPEs are lesser with higher model ICs run in each TC case. The model is more capable to predict the landfall location than the landfall time of the storms. The results also show that, on average, forecast tracks as predicted by NCUM lie to the right (i.e., model shows eastward bias of the best-track position) in all simulations for all the basins. The analysis of Along-Track errors reveals that the model forecast positions are biased to the south of (behind) the observed positions. It is evident that the NCUM forecasts are slower relative to the actual translation speed of the system for all forecast lengths, and the NCUM model predicts a delayed landfall. It is observed that the NCUM model has less predictability of intensity prediction of intense storms.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the IMD for providing the best-tracks and CLIPER model data of the TCs which is used in the present study to validate the model simulations. The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G, IMD, New Delhi for his immense help in clarifying the doubts throughout the research period. The authors also thank the scientists from UK Met Office. We express our sincere thanks to anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions for improvement of the manuscript.

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  1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, 201309, India

    Ashish Routray, Devajyoti Dutta & John P. George

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Routray, A., Dutta, D. & George, J.P. Evaluation of Track and Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean Using NCUM Global Model. Pure Appl. Geophys. 176, 421–440 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1924-8

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