Abstract
The westerly wind on the poleward side of the summer polar jet stream (PJS) over the Western Hemisphere has significantly weakened since the 1980s. A weak summer PJS causes warming surface temperatures and deficient precipitation over Alaska and western North America, favoring extreme wildfire events. This study investigates influences of Arctic sea ice loss on the summer PJS variability over the Western Hemisphere. Regression analysis first provides observational evidence that Arctic sea ice reduction is related to a weakening summer Western Hemisphere PJS at interannual time scales. Atmospheric model ensemble simulations are then used to demonstrate that Arctic sea ice loss significantly contributes to observed Western Hemisphere Arctic warming and reduced meridional temperature gradient between midlatitudes and the pole in the lower and middle troposphere, acting to weaken the troposphere zonal wind and vertical wind shear from 55° to 75°N, and about 20–30% of observed weakened summer PJS trend during 1979–2014. Observational analysis and the model-based results also indicate that a significant portion of the observed trends of the PJS and vertical wind shear during 1979–2014 might be attributed to the decadal variability of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the future climate, as more and more ice melts in the summer, the weakening effect of sea ice on the PJS will continue and will be superimposed onto the natural decadal variability of the PJS.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All datasets supporting this study are publicly available. ERA5 data is available from the ECMWF website at https://www.ecmwf.int/. The AMIP simulations are downloaded from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) (https://psl.noaa.gov/repository/). The monthly sea ice extent indices are calculated from sea ice concentration data derived from passive microwave satellite data with the Bootstrap algorithm and downloaded from https://nsidc.org.
References
Archer CL, Caldeira K (2008) Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophys Res Lett 35:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033614
Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Molteni F (2010) Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: implications for long-range predictions. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:1655–1664. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661
Barnes EA, Screen JA (2015) The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it? Wires Clim Change 6:277–286. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880
Belmecheri S et al (2017) Northern Hemisphere jet stream position indices as diagnostic tools for climate and ecosystem dynamics. Earth Interact 21:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-16-0023.1
Blackport R, Kushner PJ (2016) The transient and equilibrium climate response to rapid summertime sea ice loss in CCSM4. J Clim 29. 401–417. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1
Blackport R, Screen JA (2020) Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude 15 atmospheric waves. Sci Adv 6(8):eaay2880
Blackport R, Screen JA, van der Wiel K et al (2019) Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on 19 coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nat Clim Change 9:697–704. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4
Cohen J et al (2014) Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nat Geosci 7:627–637. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234
Cohen J et al (2020) Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nat Clim Change 10(1):20–29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y
Coumou D, Capua GD, Vavrus S et al (2018) The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-17 latitude summer circulation. Nat Commun 9(1):2959. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8
Crawford AD, Serreze MC (2015) A new look at the summer arctic frontal zone. J Clim 28:737–754. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00447.1
Crawford AD, Serreze MC (2016) Does the summer Arctic Frontal Zone influence Arctic Ocean cyclone activity? J Clim 29:4977–4993. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0755.1
Deser C, Tomas RA, Alexander M et al (2010) The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J Clim 23:333–351. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1
Deser C, Tomas RA, Sun L (2015) The role of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the zonal-mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 28:2168–2186. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00325.1
Francis JA, Vavrus SJ (2012) Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 39:L06801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000
Francis JA, Chan W, Leathers DJ et al (2009) Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36:L07503. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037274
Francis JA, Vavrus SJ, Cohen J (2017) Amplified Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather: new perspectives 47 on emerging connections. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Climate Change 8(5):e474. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.474
Garcia-Serrano FJC, Gastineau G et al (2015) On the predictability of the winter euro-atlantic climate: lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea ice. J Clim 28:5195–5216. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1
Graversen R, Mauritsen T, Tjernström M et al (2008) Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 451:53–56. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06502
Hersbach H et al (2018) Operational global reanalysis: progress, future directions and synergies with NWP. ECMWF ERA report series, N27
Honda M, Inue J, Yamane S (2009) Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 36:L08707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037079
Hurrell JW, Hack JJ, Shea D et al (2008) A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary data set for the Community Atmosphere Model. J Clim 21:5145–5153. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1
Jain P, Flannigan M (2021) The relationship between the polar jet stream and extreme wildfire events in North America. J Clim 34:6247–6265. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0863.1
Kang C, Wu Q et al (2023) Has Arctic sea ice loss contributed to weakening winter and strengthening summer polar front jets over the Eastern Hemisphere? Clim Dyn 60:2819–2846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06444-5
Kim B, Son SW, Min SK et al (2014) Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss. Nat Commun 5:4646. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646
Knudsen E, Orsolini Y, Furevik T, Hodges K (2014) Observed anomalous atmospheric circulation in summers of unusual Arctic Sea ice reduction. J Geophys Res 16:2014. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022608
Liu J, Curry JA, Wang H et al (2012) Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snow. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:4074–4079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.111491010
Liu Y, Key JR, Wang X, Tschudi M (2020) Multidecadal Arctic sea ice thickness and volume derived from ice age. Cryosphere 14:1325–1345. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1325-2020
Meredith MM et al (2019) Polar regions. In: Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Tignor M, Poloczanska E, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Nicolai M, Okem A, Petzold J, Rama B, Weyer NM (eds) IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H et al (2014) Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geosci 7:869–873. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2277
Mori M, Kosaka Y, Watanabe M et al (2019) A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling. Nat Clim Change 9(2):123–129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3
Murray D et al (2020) Facility for weather and climate assessments (FACTS): a community resource for assessing weather and climate variability. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 101:E1214–E1224. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0224.1
Neale RB et al (2010) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 4.0), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-XXX+STR, 206 p, Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res, Boulder, Colo
Neale RB et al (2012) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 5.0), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-486+STR, 289 p, Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res, Boulder, Colo
Ogawa F et al (2018) Evaluating impacts of recent Arctic sea ice loss on the northern hemisphere winter climate change. Geophys Res Lett 45(7):3255–3263. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502
Overland JE, Francis JA, Hall R et al (2015) The melting Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns: Are they connected? J Clim 28:7917–7932. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1
Peings Y, Magnusdottir G (2014) Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline: A numerical study with CAM5. J Clim 27:244–264. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00272.1
PerlwitzJ HM, Dole R (2015) Arctic tropospheric warming: causes and linkages to lower latitudes. J Clim 28:2154–2167. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00095.1
Petrie RE, Shaffrey LC, Sutton RT (2015) Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:2070–2076. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2502
Reed RJ, Kunkel BA (1960) The Arctic circulation in summer. J Meteor 17:489–506. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1960)0172.0.CO;2
Rikus L (2018) A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets. Clim Dyn 50:2285–2310. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2560-y
Roeckner E et al (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: model description Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Tech. Rep. 349, p 127
Rogers E, Bosart LF (1986) An investigation of explosively deepening oceanic cyclones. Mon Wea Rev 114:702–718. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)1142.0.CO;2
Saha S et al (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
Sanders F (1986) Explosive cyclogenesis in the west-central North Atlantic Ocean, 1981–84. Part I: Composite structure and mean behavior. Mon Wea Rev 114:1781–1794. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)1142.0.CO;2
Sanders F, Gyakum JR (1980) Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “Bomb.” Mon Wea Rev 108:1589–1606. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)1082.0.CO;2
Screen JA (2013) Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation. Environ Res Lett 8:044015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015
Screen JA, Blackport R (2019) Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models? Nat Clim Change 9(12):934–936. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0635-1
Screen JA, Deser C, Simmonds I (2012) Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10709. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051598
Screen JA, Simmonds I, Deser C, Tomas R (2013) The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 26:1230–1248. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1
Screen JA, Deser C, Simmonds I, Tomas R (2014) Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability. Clim Dyn 43:333–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1830-9
Serreze MC, Lynch AH, Clark MP (2001) The arctic frontal zone as seen in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. J Clim 14:1550–1567. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009
Serreze MC, Barrett AP, Stroeve JC et al (2009) The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere 3:11–19. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2
Smith DM et al (2017) Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: the importance of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the background state. J Clim 30:4547–4565. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0564.1
Tang Q, Zhang X, Francis JA (2014) Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere. Nat Clim Change 4:45–50. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2065
Trenberth K, Serreze MC, Holland MM et al (2014) Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat Clim Change 4:911–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341
Vaughan DG et al (2014) Observations: cryosphere. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 317–382. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1
Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Wallace JM, Held IM, Thompson DWJ et al (2014) Global warming and winter weather. Science 343:729–730. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6172.729
Wang K, Deser C, Sun L et al (2018) Fast response of the tropics to an abrupt loss of Arctic Sea ice via ocean dynamics. Geophys Res Lett 45(9):4264–4272. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077325
Wu B, Li Z (2021) Possible impacts of anomalous Arctic sea ice melting on summer atmosphere. Int J Clim 2021:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7337
Wu Q, Zhang X (2010) Observed forcing-feedback processes between Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and Arctic sea ice coverage. J Geophys Res 115:D14119. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013574
Wu Q, Cheng L, Chan D et al (2016) Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979–2012. Geophys Res Lett 43:2792–2800. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068059
Zhang PY et al (2018) A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss. Sci Adv 4:eaat6025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3624-y
Zhang PY, Wu K, Smith L (2018) Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model. Clim Dyn 50:527–539. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat6025
Zou Y, Rasch PJ, Wang H, Xie Z, Zhang R (2021) Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic. Nat Commun 12:6048. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26232-9
Acknowledgements
We are grateful for the insightful and constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers. This work is funded by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (Grant 91837206). All calculations were carried out at TianHe-1 (A) of National Supercomputer Center in Tianjin.
Funding
This work is funded by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (Grant 91837206) .
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
QW designed and wrote the paper. KC, YC and YY performed statistical analyses and prepared Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16. All authors analyzed and discussed the results, commented on the manuscript, and contributed to the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Wu, Q., Kang, C., Chen, Y. et al. Significant weakening effects of Arctic sea ice loss on the summer western hemisphere polar jet stream and troposphere vertical wind shear. Clim Dyn 61, 4491–4513 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06812-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06812-9