Abstract
The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in sub-seasonal forecasting with the Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were assessed for June–September (JJAS) from 1991 to 2010 over the western North Pacific (WNP). The performance of GloSea5 was examined for its ability to reproduce observed TC climatology as well as changes in TC genesis with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a 1998/1999 climate regime shift (e.g., frequency, genesis spatial distribution). GloSea5 showed skillful performance in predicting the frequency and genesis spatial distribution of TCs in climatology and both ENSO phases; this performance was best during periods of La Niña. Environmental fields related to TC genesis (e.g., sea surface temperature [SST], vertical wind shear [VWS], 850-hPa wind and relative vorticity) were also reasonably captured, despite some systematic biases in SST, low-level circulation, relative vorticity, and VWS. GloSea5 performed well in terms of characteristic of changes in TC genesis before and after the regime shift. However, there were biases in TC frequency before the regime shift and changes in TC-related environmental fields. Our results imply that GloSea5 with a high predictive skill for TC genesis over the WNP can be used as an operational model for sub-seasonal TC forecasting, although it requires continuous improvements to reduce systematic errors.
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Data availability
JTWC best track data can acquired from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center website (https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks). OISST v2 data can be obtained from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory website (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html). ERA5 data can be downloaded from the ECMWF website (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5). Data used in this study can be provided upon request to the corresponding author.
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This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI (KMI2020-01214).
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The authors confirmed contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: TK and D-HC; data production and collection: TK, EK, S-ML, JL, and K-OB; analysis and interpretation of results: TK, EK, ML, and D-HC; write the manuscript text: TK and D-HC; prepared figures: TK, EK. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
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Kim, T., Kim, E., Lee, M. et al. Characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific related to extreme ENSO and a climate regime shift in sub-seasonal forecasting with GloSea5. Clim Dyn 61, 2637–2653 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06705-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06705-x