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Dynamical influence of West Pacific Typhoons on the 2018 historic flood of Kerala as revealed by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

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Abstract

The remote influence of west Pacific typhoons on the historic Kerala flood in the 2018 Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season is investigated using the weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The flood occurred as a result of vigorous monsoon intra-seasonal activity with some districts receiving excess rainfall exceeding 405%. Observational data reveals that a deflection of the monsoon low level jet (LLJ) occurred from south westerly to north westerly direction together with a slow-down of cloud movement over the central Kerala region due to a split in the LLJ core nearby the Arabian sea coast. The split and deflection of LLJ core produced cyclonic vorticity along 10° N latitude which favored severe convection. Nevertheless, a detailed analysis of the flow pattern reveals that the simultaneous formation of a low-pressure system (near Orissa coast in the Bay of Bengal) and several typhoons in the west-Pacific Ocean had a crucial role in the deflection and hence the production of cyclonic vorticity. By employing the tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in WRF-ARW, the formation of a west-Pacific typhoon was suppressed and subsequently a comparison was made against the control run in order to quantify the typhoon’s effect on the Kerala rainfall. It is found that the presence of low-latitude typhoon was primarily responsible for the deflection of the monsoon LLJ and hence the production of cyclonic vorticity through remote forcing. The study thus provides an insight into the teleconnection of west-Pacific typhoons on the intraseasonal variation of ISM and associated extreme rainfall events.

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(Source: KITAMOTO Laboratory website http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/~kitamoto/)

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(Source: KITAMOTO Laboratory website http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/~kitamoto/)

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Data availability

The datasets analyzed during the current study are publicly available from: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim; (URL: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?type=dataset). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° × 2.5°) is available at: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.surface.html#detail. The ST Radar data of Cochin University of Science and Technology is available upon reasonable request due to Institute’s data sharing policy. Further, WRF Model output can be obtained from the Corresponding Author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Director, ACARR for the encouragements and support. The data from IMD, NCEP/NCAR and ERA reanalysis schemes are acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge the WRF Model developed by NCAR.

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The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Author notes

  1. Someshwar Das

    Present address: South Asian Meteorological Association (SAMA), New Delhi, India

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, 682022, India

    P. P. Musaid, M. G. Manoj & K. Mohanakumar

  2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, India

    P. P. Musaid, Subrat Kumar Panda & Someshwar Das

  3. SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur, Chennai, India

    P. P. Musaid

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Contributions

The conception and design of the study was done by MGM. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by PPM and MGM. The first draft of the manuscript was prepared by PPM and MGM, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to M. G. Manoj.

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Musaid, P.P., Manoj, M.G., Panda, S.K. et al. Dynamical influence of West Pacific Typhoons on the 2018 historic flood of Kerala as revealed by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Clim Dyn 61, 1663–1681 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06648-9

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