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The intensified impact of El Niño on late-summer precipitation over East Asia since the early 1990s

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Abstract

This study reveals a pronounced enhancement of the relationship between the winter El Niño and the following late-summer precipitation over East Asia since the early 1990s. Before the early 1990s, precipitation anomalies over East Asia were weak during the decaying phase of El Niño. In contrast, after the early 1990s, an evident dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies was observed, with centers of action over the central and southern parts of East Asia. The El Niño-induced atmospheric convection and anticyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) moved to the west after the early 1990s. Correspondingly, a Pacific-Japan-like atmospheric meridional wave pattern excited by the WNP anomalous convection shifted westward toward East Asia after the early 1990s. This resulted in an increased impact of the winter El Niño on the subsequent East Asian summer precipitation. The westward movement of WNP convection was related to the change in the El Niño decay time, which became shorter after the early 1990s. Specifically, sea surface temperature (SST) warming was still apparent in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) before the early 1990s, while after the 1990s, the EEP was dominated by SST cooling, and significant SST warming could be observed in the maritime continent. The prominent SST warming in the maritime continent was accompanied by marked upward motion and excessive rainfall anomalies, which further contributed to the westward shift of the WNP convective center by modulating the local Hadley circulation. Further analysis indicated that the strengthening of El Niño-induced SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean might have partly contributed to the rapid decline of the El Niño events after the early 1990s.

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Acknowledgements

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and comments, which helped to improve the paper. This study was supported jointly by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant no. 2016YFA0600604), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41721004, 4191101005, and 41961144016), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

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  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

    Jinling Piao, Wen Chen, Shangfeng Chen & Hainan Gong

  2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Wen Chen & Xiaolong Chen

  3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Wen Chen, Shangfeng Chen & Xiaolong Chen

  4. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Bo Liu

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Piao, J., Chen, W., Chen, S. et al. The intensified impact of El Niño on late-summer precipitation over East Asia since the early 1990s. Clim Dyn 54, 4793–4809 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05254-x

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