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A convection-permitting model for the Lake Victoria Basin: evaluation and insight into the mesoscale versus synoptic atmospheric dynamics

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Abstract

Aiming for an improved understanding of the different factors that determine the regional climate of the Lake Victoria Basin, the COSMO-CLM regional climate model is set up in a tropical, convection-permitting configuration and is directly nested in a recent reanalysis product (ERA5). The convection-permitting simulation outperforms state-of-the-art climate integrations that rely on convection parametrisations. Yet the domain-averaged model precipitation is larger than in the multi-observational ensemble, but the latter shows large spread. Overestimations of outgoing TOA shortwave and longwave radiation are much reduced compared to the COSMO-CLM CORDEX-Africa integration, but still suggest a general underestimation of the cloud fraction or frequency. Comparing the control with a no-lake simulation, the presence of Lake Victoria implies strong intensification of over-lake rainfall, but it only slightly increases the total domain-averaged precipitation. In addition, the easterly trade winds are shown to largely affect the mesoscale circulation and precipitation patterns. During daytime, fast trades and anabatic slope winds trigger convection at the lee-wind slopes, and subsidence over the basin. Slow trades allow the stationary air to produce spontaneous convective cells and to develop anabatic winds that result in orographic precipitation. During night-time, trade winds curl around the eastern branch of the East African Rift, generating a southerly and northerly evening convergence front entering the Lake Victoria Basin. Thus, our results highlight the key importance of the easterly trade winds and the complex orography in determining the total accumulation and location of precipitation in the Lake Victoria region.

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Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by internal KU Leuven C1 project foundation and BELSPO through the research project REACT. The authors would like to thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing the ERA5 reanalysis data. We would also like to express our gratitude to the COSMO-CLM community (http://www.clm-community.eu) for their efforts in both providing the model source code and helping to post-process ERA5 data. The computational resources and services used in this work were enabled by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputing Center). We also thank the reviewers for their positive feedback to and critical analysis of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200e, Leuven, Belgium

    Jonas Van de Walle, Oscar Brousse, Niels Souverijns & Nicole P. M. van Lipzig

  2. Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

    Wim Thiery

  3. Department of Geography, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany

    Matthias Demuzere

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  1. Jonas Van de Walle
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  6. Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
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Van de Walle, J., Thiery, W., Brousse, O. et al. A convection-permitting model for the Lake Victoria Basin: evaluation and insight into the mesoscale versus synoptic atmospheric dynamics. Clim Dyn 54, 1779–1799 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05088-2

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