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Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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Abstract

In this study, we have investigated the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the North Indian Ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and seasonal predictability. A statistical seasonal prediction model was developed for the NIO region tropical cyclone genesis, trajectories and landfalls using the Southern Oscillation index (SOI: as a metric of ENSO) as a predictor. The forecast model utilised kernel density estimation (KDE), a generalised additive model (GAM), Euler integration, and a country mask. TCs from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre were analysed over the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. KDE was used to model the distribution of cyclone genesis points and the cyclone tracks were estimated using the GAM, with velocities fit as smooth functions of location according to ENSO phase and TC season. The best predictor lead time scales for TC forecast potential were assessed from 1 to 6 months. We found that the SOI (as a proxy for ENSO) is a good predictor of TC behaviour 2-months in advance (70% skill). Two hindcast validation methods were applied to assess the reliability of the model. The model was found to be skillful in hindcasting NIO region TC activity for the pre and post monsoon season. The distribution of TC genesis, movement and landfall probabilities over the study period, as well as the hindcast probabilities of TC landfall during ENSO events, matched well against observations over most of the study domain. Overall, we found that the phase of ENSO has the potential to improve NIO region TC seasonal forecast skill by about 15% over climatological persistence.

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(figure reproduced from Wahiduzzaman et al. 2017)

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(figure reproduced from Wahiduzzaman and Yeasmin 2019b)

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Acknowledgements

Tasmania Graduate Research Scholarship from the University of Tasmania, Australia and Postdoctoral Research Funding from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China supported Md Wahiduzzaman. Authors are thankful to Professor Neil J Holbrook and anonymous reviewers for their helpful discussion which improved the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Md Wahiduzzaman & Jing-Jia Luo

  2. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Md Wahiduzzaman & Simon J. Wotherspoon

  3. Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

    Eric C. J. Oliver

  4. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Eric C. J. Oliver

  5. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS, Australia

    Simon J. Wotherspoon

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  1. Md Wahiduzzaman
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  4. Jing-Jia Luo
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Correspondence to Jing-Jia Luo.

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Wahiduzzaman, M., Oliver, E.C.J., Wotherspoon, S.J. et al. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 54, 1571–1589 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05075-7

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