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Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings

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Abstract

Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2 = 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the British Council Program’s Newton-al Farabi Institutional Links award #172727191 to M.G. Macklin. The development of the tree-ring network was funded in part by U.S. National Science Foundation BCS award #1122359 to I.P. Panyushkina. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment program, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    Irina P. Panyushkina & D. M. Meko

  2. School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7TS, UK

    M. G. Macklin

  3. Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, 4222, New Zealand

    M. G. Macklin

  4. Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Llandinam Building, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DB, UK

    W. H. J. Toonen

  5. Z.H. Zhiembaev Research Institute of Plant Protections and Quarantine, Kazybek Bi 1, Almaty, 050070, Kazakhstan

    N. S. Mukhamаdiev, N. Z. Ashikbaev & A. O. Sagitov

  6. RAN Institute of Geography, Staromonetnyi Pereulok 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    V. G. Konovalov

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  1. Irina P. Panyushkina
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  2. D. M. Meko
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Correspondence to Irina P. Panyushkina.

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Panyushkina, I.P., Meko, D.M., Macklin, M.G. et al. Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings. Clim Dyn 51, 3161–3177 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4072-z

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