Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A process-based decomposition of decadal-scale surface temperature evolutions over East Asia

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study partitions the observed decadal evolution of surface temperature and surface temperature differences between two decades (early 2000s and early 1980s) over the East Asian continent into components associated with individual radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) processes in the context of the coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM). Rapid warming in this region occurred in late 1980s and early 2000s with a transient pause of warming between the two periods. The rising CO2 concentration provides a sustained, region-wide warming contribution and surface albedo effect, largely related to snow cover change, is important for warming/cooling over high-latitude and high-elevation regions. Sensible hear flux and surface dynamics dominates the evolution of surface temperature, with latent heat flux and atmospheric dynamics working against them mostly through large-scale and convective/turbulent heat transport. Cloud via its shortwave effect provides positive contributions to warming over southern Siberia and South China. The longwave effect associated with water vapor change contributes significant warming over northern India, Tibetan Plateau, and central Siberia. Impacts of solar irradiance and ozone changes are relatively small. The strongest year-to-year temperature fluctuation occurred at a rapid warming (1987–1988) and a rapid cooling (1995–1996) period. The pattern of the rapid warming receives major positive contributions from sensible heat flux with changes in atmospheric dynamics, water vapor, clouds, and albedo providing secondary positive contributions, while surface dynamics and latent heat flux providing negative contributions. The signs of the contributions from individual processes to the rapid cooling are almost opposite to those to the rapid warming.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bao X, Zhang F (2013) Evaluation of NCEP–CFSR, NCEP–NCAR, ERA-Interim, and ERA-40 reanalysis datasets against independent sounding observations over the Tibetan Plateau. J Clim 26:206–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai M, Lu J (2009) A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part II: method demonstrations and comparisons. Clim Dyn 32:887–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J-P, Chen I-J, Tsai I-C (2016) Dynamic feedback of aerosol effects on the East Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 29:6137–6149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J, Deng Y, Lin W, Yang S (2017) A process-based assessment of decadal-scale surface temperature evolutions in the NCAR CCSM4’s 25-year hindcast experiments. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0869.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung CE, Ramanathan V, Carmichael G, Kulkarni S, Tang Y, Adhikary B, Leung LR, Qian Y (2010) Anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing in Asia derived from regional models with atmospheric and aerosol data assimilation. Atmos Chem Phys 10:6007–6024

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteor Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng Y, Park T-W, Cai M (2012) Process-based decomposition of the global surface temperature response to El Niño in boreal winter. J Atmos Sci 69:1706–1712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng Y, Park T-W, Cai M (2013) Radiative and dynamical forcing of the surface and atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with the northern annular mode. J Clim 26:5124–5138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan A, Xiao Z (2015) Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan. Plateau? Sci Rep 5:13711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng J-M, Wang Y-L, Ma Z-G, Liu Y-H (2012) Simulating the regional impacts of urbanization and anthropogenic heat release on climate across China. J Clim 25:7187–7203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu Q, Liou KN (1992) On the correlated k-distribution method for radiative transfer in nonhomogeneous atmospheres. J Atmos Sci 49:2139–2156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu Q, Liou KN (1993) Parameterization of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds. J Atmos Sci 50:2008–2025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu ZZ, Yang S, Wu R (2003) Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2003JD003651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Z, Zhang C, Hu Q, Tian H (2014) Temperature changes in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets. J Clim 27:1143–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu X, Yang S, Cai M (2016) Contrasting the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño: process-based feedback attribution. Clim Dyn 47:2413–2424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu X, Li Y, Yang S, Deng Y, Cai M (2017) Process-based decomposition of the decadal climate difference between 2002–13 and 1984–95. J Clim 30:4373–4393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeong J-H, Ou T, Linderholm HW, Kim B-M, Kim S-J, Kug J-S, Chen D (2011) Recent recovery of the Siberian high intensity. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D23102. doi:10.1029/2011JD015904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufman YJ, Tanre D, Boucher O (2002) A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system. Nature 419:215–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Li C, Chen H, Tsay SC, Holben B, Huang J, Li B, Maring H, Qian Y, Shi G, Xia X, Yin Y, Zheng Y, Zhuang G (2011) East Asian studies of tropospheric aerosols and their impact on regional climate (EAST-AIRC): an overview. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D00K34. doi:10.1029/2010JD015257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Lau WKM, Ramanathan V, Wu G, Ding Y, Manoj MG, Liu J, Qian Y, Li J, Zhou T, Fan J, Rosenfeld D, Ming Y, Wang Y, Huang J, Wang B, Xu X, Lee SS, Cribb M, Zhang F, Yang X, Takemura T, Wang K, Xia X, Yin Y, Zhang H, Guo J, Zhai PM, Sugimoto N, Babu SS, Brasseur GP (2016) Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia. Rev Geophys 54. doi:10.1002/2015RG000500

  • Liu B, Zhou T (2017) Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown. Sci Rep 7:40947

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Qi Y, Li Y (2004) Taking China’s temperature: daily range, warming trends, and regional variations, 1955–2000. J Clim 17:4453–4462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu B, Zhou T, Lu J (2015) Quantifying contributions of model processes to the surface temperature bias in FGOALS-g2. J Adv Model Earth Syst 7:1519–1533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu J, Cai M (2009) A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part I: formulation. Clim Dyn 32:873–885

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Teng H (2012) Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region. Geophys Res Lett 39:L22705. doi:10.1029/2012GL053423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park H-S, Sohn BJ (2010) Recent trends in changes of vegetation over East Asia coupled with temperature and rainfall variations. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D14101. doi:10.1029/2009JD012752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park T-W, Deng Y, Cai M (2012) Feedback attribution of the El Niño–southern oscillation–related atmospheric and surface temperature anomalies. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D23101. doi:10.1029/2012JD018468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park T-W, Deng Y, Cai M, Jeong J-H, Zhou R (2013) A dissection of the surface temperature biases in the community earth system model. Clim Dyn 43:2043–2059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V, Carmichael G (2008) Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon. Nat Geosci 1:221–227

  • Ren G, Zhou Y, Chu Z, Zhou J, Zhang A, Guo J, Liu X (2008) Urbanization effects on observed surface air temperature trends in North China. J Clim 21:1333–1348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren R, Sun S, Yang Y, Li Q (2016) Summer SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean and the seasonal timing of ENSO decay phase. Clim Dyn 47:1827–1844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romanovsky VE, Drozdov DS, Oberman NG, Malkova GV, Kholodov AL, Marchenko SS, Moskalenko NG, Sergeev DO, Ukraintseva NG, Abramov AA, Gilichinsky DA, Vasiliev AA (2010) Thermal state of permafrost in Russia. Permafr Periglac Process 21:136–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenfeld D, Andreae MO, Asmi A, Chin M, de Leeuw G, Donovan DP, Kahn R, Kinne S, Kivekäs N, Kulmala M, Lau W, Schmidt KS, Suni T, Wagner T, Wild M, Quaas J (2014) Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions. Rev Geophys 52:750–808

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Behringer D, Hou Y-T, Chuang H-y, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, Mendez MP, Dool Hvd, Zhang Q, Wang W, Chen M, Becker E (2014) The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seinfeld JH, Carmichael GR, Arimoto R, Conant WC, Brechtel FJ, Bates TS, Cahill TA, Clarke AD, Doherty SJ, Flatau PJ, Huebert BJ, Kim J, Markowicz KM, Quinn PK, Russell LM, Russell PB, Shimizu A, Shinozuka Y, Song CH, Tang Y, Uno I, Vogelmann AM, Weber RJ, Woo J-H, Zhang XY (2004) ACE-ASIA: regional climatic and atmospheric chemical effects of Asian dust and pollution. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:367–380

  • Serreze MC, Walsh JE, Chapin FS, Osterkamp T, Dyurgerov M, Romanovsky V, Oechel WC, Morison J, Zhang T, Barry RG (2000) Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Clim Chang 46:159–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun Y, Zhang X, Ren G, Zwiers FW, Hu T (2016) Contribution of urbanization to warming in China. Nat Clim Chang 6:706–709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JXL, Gaffen DJ (2001) Late-twentieth-century climatology and trends of surface humidity and temperature in China. J Clim 14:2833–2845

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang A, Zeng X (2012) Evaluation of multireanalysis products with in situ observations over the Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D05102. doi:10.1029/2011JD016553

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Yan Z, Jones PD, Xia J (2013) On “observation minus reanalysis” method: a view from multidecadal variability. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:7450–7458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xia X (2010a) A closer looking at dimming and brightening in China during 1961–2005. Ann Geophys 28:1121–1132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xia X (2010b) Spatiotemporal changes in sunshine duration and cloud amount as well as their relationship in China during 1954–2005. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D00K06. doi:10.1029/2009JD012879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Ren R (2017) On the contrasting decadal changes of diurnal surface temperature range between the Tibetan Plateau and southeastern China during the 1980s–2000s. Adv Atmos Sci 34:181–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang D, Kane DL, Hinzman LD, Zhang X, Zhang T, Ye H (2002) Siberian Lena River hydrologic regime and recent change. J Geophys Res Atmos 107(D23):4694. doi:10.1029/2002JD002542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, Hou Y, Chen B (2011) Observed surface warming induced by urbanization in east China. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D14113. doi:10.1029/2010JD015452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Ren R, Cai M, Rao J (2015) Attributing analysis on the model bias in surface temperature in the climate system model FGOALS-s2 through a process-based decomposition method. Adv Atmos Sci 32:457–469

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ye K, Wu R, Liu Y (2015) Interdecadal change of Eurasian snow, surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation in the late 1980s. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:2738–2753

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The ERA-Interim dataset was provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project combined precipitation dataset was provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Lin and Yang are supported by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (Grant 2014CB953904), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 91637208, 41690123, and 41690120), and the “111-Plan” Project of China (Grant B17049). Chen and Deng are supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants AGS-1147601, AGS-1354402, and AGS-1445956).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510275, Guangdong, China

    Junwen Chen, Wenshi Lin & Song Yang

  2. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA

    Junwen Chen & Yi Deng

Authors
  1. Junwen Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yi Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wenshi Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Song Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Junwen Chen or Wenshi Lin.

Additional information

This paper is a contribution to the special issue on East Asian Climate under Global Warming: Understanding and Projection, consisting of papers from the East Asian Climate (EAC) community and the 13th EAC International Workshop in Beijing, China on 24–25 March 2016, and coordinated by Jianping Li, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Wei-Chyung Wang, Kyung-Ja Ha, Tim Li, and Akio Kitoh.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chen, J., Deng, Y., Lin, W. et al. A process-based decomposition of decadal-scale surface temperature evolutions over East Asia. Clim Dyn 51, 4371–4383 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3872-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3872-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation