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Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

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Abstract

A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr. Kossin and Dr. Vimont for their input and guidance. They also would like to thank Dr. Emanuel for providing the genesis potential index datasets. The authors would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for its very insightful comments. Finally, we would like to thank Erin Thomas for the English corrections. The reanalysis datasets were acquired from the Climate Data Guide and the Research Data Archive, developed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) which, includes the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The reanalysis MERRA was acquired thanks to the dissemination of the data by the Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO) and the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC). ERA-Interim data was obtained from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data server. SJC acknowledges support from NOAA Grant NA11OAR4310093.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Space and Science Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Anne Sophie Daloz

  2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

    Suzana J. Camargo

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  1. Anne Sophie Daloz
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  2. Suzana J. Camargo
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Correspondence to Anne Sophie Daloz.

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Daloz, A.S., Camargo, S.J. Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?. Clim Dyn 50, 705–715 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3636-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3636-7

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