Climate Dynamics

, Volume 49, Issue 4, pp 1289–1304 | Cite as

Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability

  • Chiho Tanizaki
  • Tomoki Tozuka
  • Takeshi Doi
  • Toshio Yamagata
Article

Abstract

Using outputs from an ocean general circulation model, the relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is examined systematically based on two metrics. One metric quantifies the relative importance of the surface heat flux term against the oceanic terms, while the other metric compares the contribution from the horizontal advection and vertical diabatic terms. It is revealed that the anomalous cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean associated with the positive IOD varies with events and four representative events are investigated in more detail. During the 1991 IOD, the horizontal advection term made the largest contribution to the eastern cooling, and the vertical diabatic term was equally important in the early stage of the development. In the 1994 event, negative SST anomalies were generated by the surface heat flux term at first, and then matured by the vertical diabatic term. Anomalous cooling during the 1997 IOD was mainly produced by the vertical diabatic term. In 2012, anomalous surface heat flux and horizontal advection played the crucial role in the development of the eastern pole, but the vertical diabatic term opposed to the anomalous cooling. Furthermore, the dependence of the seasonal prediction skill by a global ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model on the generation mechanisms was examined. It is demonstrated that events with the vertical diabatic term playing a more important role in the development of the eastern pole are better predicted than those with the vertical diabatic term making relatively small contribution or opposing the occurrence.

Keywords

Indian Ocean Dipole Mixed-layer heat balance Seasonal prediction Metric Ocean general circulation model Coupled general circulation model 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Application LaboratoryJAMSTECYokohamaJapan

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