Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using outputs from an ocean general circulation model, the relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is examined systematically based on two metrics. One metric quantifies the relative importance of the surface heat flux term against the oceanic terms, while the other metric compares the contribution from the horizontal advection and vertical diabatic terms. It is revealed that the anomalous cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean associated with the positive IOD varies with events and four representative events are investigated in more detail. During the 1991 IOD, the horizontal advection term made the largest contribution to the eastern cooling, and the vertical diabatic term was equally important in the early stage of the development. In the 1994 event, negative SST anomalies were generated by the surface heat flux term at first, and then matured by the vertical diabatic term. Anomalous cooling during the 1997 IOD was mainly produced by the vertical diabatic term. In 2012, anomalous surface heat flux and horizontal advection played the crucial role in the development of the eastern pole, but the vertical diabatic term opposed to the anomalous cooling. Furthermore, the dependence of the seasonal prediction skill by a global ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model on the generation mechanisms was examined. It is demonstrated that events with the vertical diabatic term playing a more important role in the development of the eastern pole are better predicted than those with the vertical diabatic term making relatively small contribution or opposing the occurrence.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Annamalai H, Potemra J, Murtugudde R, McCreary JP (2005) Effect of preconditioning on the extreme climate events in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 18:3450–3469

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112:C11007. doi:10.1029/2006JC003798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African short rains: a CGCM study. J Clim 18:4514–4530

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera S, Ratnam J, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2013) Origin of extreme summers in Europe: the Indo-Pacific connection. Clim Dyn 41:663–676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanke B, Delecluse P (1993) Variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated by a general circulation model with two different mixed layer physics. J Phys Oceanogr 23:1363–1388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charnock M (1955) Wind stress on a water surface. Q J R Meteorol Soc 81:639–640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doi T, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2013) Predictability of the Ningaloo Niño. Sci Rep 3:2892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du Y, Cai W, Wu Y (2013) A new type of the Indian Ocean Dipole since the mid-1970s. J Clim 26:959–972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Endo S, Tozuka T (2016) Two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Clim Dyn 46:3371–3385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng M, McPhaden MJ, Xie SP, Hafner J (2013) La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011. Sci Rep 3:1277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer AS, Terray P, Guilyardi E, Gualdi S, Delecluse P (2005) Two independent triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a coupled GCM. J Clim 18:3428–3449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gent PR, McWilliams JC (1990) Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J Phys Oceanogr 20:150–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) Predictability of North Atlantic multidecedal climate variability. Science 275:181–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guan Z, Yamagata T (2003) The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia: IOD teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2002GL016831

    Google Scholar 

  • Halkides DJ, Lee T (2009) Mechanisms controlling seasonal-to-interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 114:C02012. doi:10.1029/2008JC004949

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halkides DJ, Waliser DE, Lee T, Menemenlis D, Guan B (2015) Quantifying the processes controlling intraseasonal mixed-layer temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res Oceans 120:692–715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iizuka S, Matsuura T, Yamagata T (2000) The Indian Ocean SST dipole simulated in a coupled general circulation model. Geophys Res Lett 27:3369–3372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kataoka T, Tozuka T, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2014) On the Ningaloo Niño/Niña. Clim Dyn 43:1463–1482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kritman BP, Shukla J, Huang B, Zhu Z, Schneider EK (1997) Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system. Mon Weather Rev 125:789–808

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitus S, Boyer TP (1994) World Ocean Atlas 1994, Temperature, vol 4. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 4. 117 pp

  • Levitus S, Burgett R, Boyer TP (1994) World Ocean Atlas 1994, Salinity, vol 3. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 3, p 99

  • Luo JJ, Masson S, Roeckner E, Madec G, Yamagata T (2005a) Reducing climatology bias in an ocean-atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J Clim 18:2344–2360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera S, Shingu S, Yamagata T (2005b) Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J Clim 18:4474–4497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera S, Yamagata T (2007) Experimental forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J Clim 20:2872–2880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2008) Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophys Res Lett 35:L14S02. doi:10.1029/2007GL032793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2011) Impact of global ocean surface warming on seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. J Clim 24:1626–1646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moisan JR, Niiler PP (1998) The seasonal heat budget of the North Pacific: net heat flux and heat storage rates (1950-1990). J Phys Oceanogr 28:401–421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morcrette JJ, Smith L, Fouquart Y (1986) Pressure and temperature dependence of the absorption in longwave radiation parameterizations. Beitr Phys Atmos 59:455–469

    Google Scholar 

  • Murtugudde R, McCreary JP, Busalacchi AJ (2000) Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997–1998. J Geophys Res 105:3295–3306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pacanowski RC, Griffies SM (1999) MOM 3.0 manual. GFDL ocean group technical report 4, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 680 pp. Available from GFDL, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08542

  • Pacanowski RC, Philander SGH (1981) Parameterization of vertical mixing in numerical models of tropical oceans. J Phys Oceanogr 11:1443–1451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quadfasel D, Cresswell GR (1992) A note on the seasonal variability of the South Java Current. J Geophys Res 97:3685–3688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosati A, Miyakoda K (1988) A general circulation model for upper ocean simulation. J Phys Oceanogr 18:1601–1626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roullet G, Madec G (2000) Salt conservation, free surface and varying volume: a new formulation for ocean GCMs. J Geophys Res 105:23927–23942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole events on global climate. Clim Res 25:151–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi L, Hendon HH, Alves O, Luo JJ, Balmaseda M, Anderson D (2012) How predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole? Mon Weather Rev 140:3867–3884

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smagorinsky J (1963) General circulation experiments with the primitive and climate variability. Rev Geophys 47:RG1002. doi:10.1029/2007RG000245

    Google Scholar 

  • Stevenson JW, Niiler PP (1983) Upper ocean heat budget during the Hawaii-to-Tahiti Shuttle Experiment. J Phys Oceanogr 13:1894–1907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1779–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tozuka T, Luo JJ, Masson S, Yamagata T (2007) Decadal modulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the SINTEX-F1 coupled GCM. J Clim 20:2881–2894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tozuka T, Yokoi T, Yamagata T (2010) A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome. J Geophys Res 115:C04005. doi:10.1029/2009JC005547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tozuka T, Kataoka T, Yamagata T (2014) Locally and remotely forced atmospheric circulation anomalies of Ningaloo Niño/Niña. Clim Dyn 43:2197–2205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tozuka T, Endo S, Yamagata T (2016) Anomalous Walker circulations associated with two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/2016GL068639

    Google Scholar 

  • Ummenhofer CC, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Risbey JS, Sen Gupta A, Taschetto AS (2009) What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophys Res Lett 36:L04706. doi:10.1029/2008GL036801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valcke S, Terray L, Piacentini A (2000) The OASIS coupler user guide version 2.4. CERFACE technical report TR/CGMC/00-10, 85 pp

  • Vinayachandran PN, Saji NH, Yamagata T (1999) Response of the equatorial Indian Ocean to an unusual wind event in 1994. Geophys Res Lett 26:1613–1616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wajsowicz RC (2005) Potential predictability of tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 32:L24702. doi:10.1029/2005GL024169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ (1995) The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteorol Atmos Phys 56:33–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wittenberg AT, Rosati A, Delworth TL, Vecchi GA, Zeng F (2014) ENSO modulation: is it decadally predictable? J Clim 27:2667–2681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Xie SP, Wu L, Kosaka Y, Lau NC, Vecchi GA (2015) Seasonality and predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode: ENSO forcing and internal variability. J Clim 28:8021–8036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokoi T, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2012) Seasonal and interannual variations of the SST above the Seychelles Dome. J Clim 25:800–814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan C, Tozuka T, Miyasaka T, Yamagata T (2009) Respective influences of IOD and ENSO on the Tibetan snow cover in early winter. Clim Dyn 33:509–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and insightful comments. The present research was supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science through Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 16H04047 for T. T. and Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) 16K17810 for T. D. Also, the present research was partly carried out for the iDEWS project supported by SATREPS Program of JICA/AMED in Japan and ACCESS (NRF/DST) in South Africa, and the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1405) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. The OGCM was run on SR16000 system of the Information Technology Center, the University of Tokyo under the cooperative research with Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo. The SINTEX-F1 seasonal climate prediction was conducted on the Earth Simulator at JAMSTEC. We are grateful to Drs. Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastian Masson, and our European colleagues of INGV/CMCC, L’OCEAN, and MPI for their contribution to developing the prototype of the systems.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

    Chiho Tanizaki & Tomoki Tozuka

  2. Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

    Tomoki Tozuka, Takeshi Doi & Toshio Yamagata

Authors
  1. Chiho Tanizaki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Tomoki Tozuka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Takeshi Doi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Toshio Yamagata
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tomoki Tozuka.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tanizaki, C., Tozuka, T., Doi, T. et al. Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability. Clim Dyn 49, 1289–1304 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3382-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3382-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation