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Tropical/extratropical forcing on wintertime variability of the extratropical temperature and circulation

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Abstract

The secular trends and interannual variability of wintertime temperatures over northern extratropical lands and circulations over the northern hemisphere are examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1961 to 2010. A primitive equation dry atmospheric model, driven by time-averaged forcing in each winter diagnosed from the NCEP reanalysis, is then employed to investigate the influences of tropical and extratropical forcing on the temperature and circulation variability. The model has no topography and the forcing is thus model specific. The dynamic and thermodynamic maintenances of the circulation and temperature anomalies are also diagnosed. Distinct surface temperature trends over 1961–1990 and 1991–2010 are found over most of the extratropical lands. The trend is stronger in the last two decades than that before 1990, particularly over eastern Canadian Arctic, Greenland, and Asia. The exchange of midlatitude and polar air supports the temperature trends. Both the diagnosed extratropical and tropical forcings contribute to the temperature and circulation trends over 1961–1990, while the extratropical forcing dominates tropical forcing for the trends over 1991–2010. The contribution of the tropical forcing to the trends is sensitive to the period considered. The temperature and circulation responses to the diagnosed tropical and extratropical forcings are approximately additive and partially offsetting. Covariances between the interannual surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies for the NCEP reanalysis from 1961 to 2010 are dominated by two leading modes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection patterns. The diagnosed extratropical forcing accounts for a significant part of the NAO and PNA associated variability, including the interannual variability of stationary wave anomalies, as well as dynamically and thermodynamically synoptic eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The tropical forcing contributes to the PNA related temperature and circulation variability, but has a small contribution to the NAO associated variability. Additionally, relative contributions of tropical Indian and Pacific forcings are also assessed.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful for helpful discussion and comments from G.J. Boer and J. Cole in this study. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and comments, which helped to improve the paper.

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  1. Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada

    Bin Yu

  2. Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada

    Hai Lin

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  1. Bin Yu
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Correspondence to Bin Yu.

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Yu, B., Lin, H. Tropical/extratropical forcing on wintertime variability of the extratropical temperature and circulation. Clim Dyn 40, 1183–1200 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1367-3

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