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Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

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Abstract

Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks.

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Notes

  1. Note that, when comparing with ERA15, Ringer et al. (2006) found that HadGAM1 underestimated the TEKE in the storm track regions. We have analysed the energy cycle in both ERA15 and ERA40 and find that both the TAPE and TEKE are smaller in ERA40 than in ERA15. This is unexpected given that the horizontal resolution of ERA40 is higher than that of ERA15 and may suggest the presence of noise in ERA15. Ultimately, it should be remembered that approximations are made in these calculations and while qualitative comparisons can be used as an aid to interpretation, quantitative comparisons should be viewed with caution.

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the UK Government Meteorological Research programme. The authors would like to thank Kevin Hodges for his help and for the use of the TRACK software. Assistance from Ruth McDonald is also gratefully acknowledged and help from Mark Ringer is appreciated. The development of HadGEM1 and HadAM3 represents the work of a large number of people to whom the authors are indebted. Useful comments from two anonymous reviewers are also much appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

    C. Z. Greeves, V. D. Pope, R. A. Stratton & G. M. Martin

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  1. C. Z. Greeves
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  2. V. D. Pope
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  3. R. A. Stratton
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  4. G. M. Martin
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Correspondence to G. M. Martin.

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Greeves, C.Z., Pope, V.D., Stratton, R.A. et al. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models. Clim Dyn 28, 683–702 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0205-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0205-x

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