Abstract
The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of V1 and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level than in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Huang S. S., et al., (1992), The effects of the Arctic sea ice on the variations of general circulation and climate, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 6: 1–14 (in Chinese).
Lau N. C., (1985), Modelling the seasonal dependence of atmospheric response to observed El Ninos 1962–1976, Mon. Wea. Rev., 113: 1970–1996.
Meehl G. A., (1994), Influences of the land surface in Asian summer monsoon: External conditions versus internal feedback, J. of Climate, 7: 1033–1049.
Shukla J. and Mooley D. A., (1987), Empirical prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115: 695–703.
Slingo J. M., et al., (1996), Intraseasonal oscillation in 15 Atmospheric General Circulation Models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject, Climate Dynamics, 12: 325–357.
Sperber K. R. and Palmer T. N., (1995), Interannual tropical rainfall variability in General Circulation Model simulations associated with the AMIP, To be published in J. Climate.
Tang M. C., et al., (1982), The thermal model for long range rainfall prediction, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 40: 62–71 (in Chinese).
Yeh T. C., et al., (1984), The effect of soil moisture on the short-term climate and hydrology change-A numerical experiment, Mon. Wea. Rev., 112: 474–490.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
This research was supported by the state key program for basic research ‘Climate Dynamics and Climate Prediction Theory′.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Huijun, W., Feng, X. & Xunqiang, B. The interannual variability and predictability in a global climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 14, 554–562 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2