Abstract
Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upper-level and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid- and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.
摘要
农业骤旱表征为土壤水分迅速变干,对农业影响巨大。骤旱爆发后,干旱条件将持续数周至数月,不利于自然生态系统和农作物种植。在未来气候变暖的情景下,罕见的农业骤旱事件频发将产生重大的社会影响。本研究采用10个耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP) 的气候系统模式来研究全球21世纪农业骤旱的变化。 不同地理区域和气候带之间的比较表明,个别骤旱事件发生之前会出现异常低的相对湿度和降水,其长期趋势受温度、相对湿度和土壤湿度变化的控制。由于这些过程的变化,预估分析表明21 世纪中高纬度地区上层和根区农业骤旱的发生频率将增加一倍以上,欧洲温带地区和南美洲、欧洲和南部非洲的湿润地区将是农业骤旱影响的热带区域。
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Acknowledgements
Emily BLACK was supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science through the NERC National Capability International Programmes Award (NE/X006263/1), the Global Challenges Research Fund, via Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) (NE/R000034/1) and the Natural Environmental Research Council and the Department for Foreign International Development through the SatWIN-ALERT project (NE/R014116/1).
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Article Highlights
• Agricultural flash drought is an extreme, high-impact phenomenon, characterized by sudden and intense dry-down of soil moisture.
• The risk of agricultural flash drought will worsen over the 21st century, with new hot spots developing in Eurasia, South America, and Australia.
• Agricultural flash droughts are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation.
• Long-term trends in agricultural flash drought are governed by changes in temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Causes, Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past, Present, and Future.
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Black, E. Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 209–220 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2366-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2366-5