Abstract
Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event (PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings. The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-hPa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anstey, J. A., and Coauthors, 2013: Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118, 3956–3971, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50231.
Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo, and R. García-Herrera, 2011: The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224.
Barriopedro, D., R. García-Herrera, and R. M. Trigo, 2010: Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part I: A novel detection scheme. Climate Dyn., 35, 1373–1391, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5.
Bueh, C., J. B. Peng, Z. W. Xie, and L. R. Ji, 2018: Recent progresses on the studies of wintertime extensive and persistent extreme cold events in China and large-scale tilted ridges and troughs over the Eurasian Continent. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 42, 656–676, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006.9895.1712.17249.
Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, C. Cassou, P. Yiou, V. Masson-Delmotte, and F. Codron, 2010: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613.
Chen, Y. N., D. H. Luo, and L. H. Zhong, 2021: North Atlantic multidecadal footprint of the recent winter warm Arctic-cold Siberia pattern. Climate Dyn., 57, 121–139, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-021-05698-9.
Cheung, H. H. N., and W. Zhou, 2016: Simple metrics for representing East Asian winter monsoon variability: Urals blocking and western Pacific teleconnection patterns. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33, 695–705, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5204-6.
Cheung, H. H. N., W. Zhou, S. M. Lee, and H. W. Tong, 2015: Interannual and interdecadal variability of the number of cold days in Hong Kong and their relationship with largescale circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 1438–1454, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00335.1.
Compo, G. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The twentieth century reanalysis project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776.
Davini, P., and F. D’Andrea, 2016: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements? J. Climate, 29, 8823–8840, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1.
Ding, Y. H., Z. Y. Wang, Y. F. Song, and J. Zhang, 2008: Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 66, 808–825, https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0577.-6619.2008.05.014. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Ding, Y. H., and Coauthors, 2014: Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change. J. Meteor. Res., 28, 693–713, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4046-y.
Dole, R. M., 1986a: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 178–207, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(19.86)114<0178:PAOTEN>2.0.CO;2.
Dole, R. M., 1986b: The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific. Advances in Geophysics, 29, 31–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60034-5.
Dole, R. M., and N. D. Gordon, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical northern hemisphere wintertime circulation: Geographical distribution and regional persistence characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1567:PAOTEN>2.0.CO;2.
Duan, A. M., and Coauthors, 2022: Sea ice loss of the Barents- Kara Sea enhances the winter warming over the Tibetan Plateau. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00245-7.
Dunn-Sigouin, E., and S. W. Son, 2013: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118, 1179–1188, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50143.
Ebita, A., and Coauthors, 2011: The Japanese 55-year reanalysis “JRA-55”: An interim report. SOLA, 7, 149–152, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2011-038.
Eyring, V., S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2016: Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.
Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The community climate system model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.
Gong, D. Y., S. W. Wang, and J. H. Zhu, 2001: East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2073–2076, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012311.
Guan, X. D., J. P. Huang, R. X. Guo, and P. Lin, 2015: The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere. Scientific Reports, 5, 12669, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669.
Han, Z., and S. L. Li, 2013: Impact of Arctic sea ice on the high pressure over the Ural Mountains during January 2008. Climatic and Environmental Research, 18, 671–680, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12038. (in Chinese with English abstract)
He, S. P., Y. Q. Gao, F. Li, H. J. Wang, and Y. C. He, 2017: Impact of Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 164, 48–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.10.014.
Huang, J. P., Y. K. Xie, X. D. Guan, D. D. Li, and F. Ji, 2017: The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 48, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3085-8.
Iles, C., and G. Hegerl, 2017: Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 114010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152.
Jin, C. H., B. Wang, Y. M. Yang, and J. Liu, 2020: “Warm Arcticcold Siberia” as an internal mode instigated by North Atlantic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086248, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086248.
Kim, J. W., S. W. Yeh, and E. C. Chang, 2014: Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Climate Dyn., 42, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1730-z.
Lei, T., S. L. Li, F. F. Luo, and N. Liu, 2020: Two dominant factors governing the decadal cooling anomalies in winter in East China during the global hiatus period. International Journal of Climatology, 40, 750–768, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6236.
Li, C. Y., and P. Xian, 2003: Atmospheric anomalies related to interdecadal variability of SST in the North Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915510.
Li, F., Y. J. Orsolini, H. J. Wang, Y. Q. Gao, and S. P. He, 2018b: Atlantic multidecadal oscillation modulates the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2497–2506, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076210.
Li, S. L., 2004: Impact of northwest Atlantic SST anomalies on the circulation over the Ural Mountains during Early Winter. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 971–988, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2004.971.
Li, S. L., and L. R. Ji, 2001: Persistent anomaly in Ural area in summer and its background circulation characteristics. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 59, 280–293, https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2001.030. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Li, S. L., D. Li, and Y. Chen, 2018a: Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in winter intraseasonal variability over Ural. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11, 445–453, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1526035.
Li, Y., S. G. Wang, R. H. Jin, J. Y. Wang, and J. P. Li, 2012: Abnormal characteristics of blocking high during durative low temperature, snowfall and freezing weather in southern China. Plateau Meteorology, 31, 94–101. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Liu, J. P., J. A. Curry, H. J. Wang, M. R. Song, and R. M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 4074–4079, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114910109.
Liu, Y. Y., L. Wang, W. Zhou, and W. Chen, 2014: Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns: Spatial structures, temporal variability, and associated winter climate anomalies. Climate Dyn., 42, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2163-z.
Luo, B. H., D. H. Luo, A. G. Dai, I. Simmonds, and L. X. Wu, 2021: A connection of winter Eurasian cold anomaly to the modulation of Ural blocking by ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094304.
Luo, B. H., D. H. Luo, A. G. Dai, I. Simmonds, and L. X. Wu, 2022: Decadal variability of winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasia dipole patterns modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Earth’s Future, 10, e2021EF002351, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002351.
Luo, D. H., Y. Yao, A. G. Dai, I. Simmonds, and L. H. Zhong, 2017: Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to arctic warming. Part II: A theoretical explanation. J. Climate, 30, 3569–3587, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0262.1.
Luo, D. H., Y. Q. Xiao, Y. Yao, A. G. Dai, I. Simmonds, and C. L. E. Franzke, 2016: Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: Blockinginduced amplification. J. Climate, 29, 3925–3947, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0611.1.
Ma, X. Q., Y. H. Ding, H. M. Xu, and J. H. He, 2008: The relation between strong cold waves and low-frequency waves during the winter of 2004/2005. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 32, 380–394, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.02.16. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.1175/15200477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2-.
Masato, G., B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings, 2013: Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 7044–7059, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1.
Matsueda, M., 2011: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046557.
Miller, R. L., G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson, 2020: A new variable-threshold persistent anomaly Index: Northern Hemisphere anomalies in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 43–62, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0144.1.
Mizuta, R., and Coauthors, 2012: Climate simulations using MRIAGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 233–258, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A12.
Mokhov, I. I., M. G. Akperov, M. A. Prokofyeva, A. V. Timazhev, A. R. Lupo, and H. Le Treut, 2013: Blockings in the Northern hemisphere and Euro-Atlantic region: Estimates of changes from reanalysis data and model simulations. Doklady Earth Sciences, 449, 430–433, https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X13040144.
Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geoscience, 7, 869–873, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2277.
Otto, F. E. L., N. Massey, G. J. Van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones, and M. R. Allen, 2012: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050422.
Palmer, T. N., and Z. B. Sun, 1985: A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperature in the North-West Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 947–975, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147003.
Peng, J. B., and C. Bueh, 2011: The definition and classification of extensive and persistent extreme cold events in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4, 281–286, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2011.11446943.
Quenouille, M. H., 1952: Associated Measurements. Academic Press, 242 pp.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.
Schiemann, R., and Coauthors, 2017: The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. J. Climate, 30, 337–358, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1.
Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115–118, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1109496.
Tao, S. Y., and J. Wei, 2008: Severe snow and freezing-rain in January 2008 in the Southern China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 13, 337–350. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v42i3.11882.
Walsh, J. E., 2014: Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes. Global and Planetary Change, 117, 52–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.003.
Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2014: The East Asian winter monsoon: Re-amplification in the mid-2000s. Chinese Science Bulletin, 59, 430–436, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-0029-0.
Wang, Y. H., C. He, and T. M. Li, 2019: Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian spring circulation and ENSO: Is it modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation? International Journal of Climatology, 39, 172–187, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5793.
Wang, Z. Y., S. Yang, and B. T. Zhou, 2017: Preceding features and relationship with possible affecting factors of persistent and extensive icing events in China. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 4105–4118, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5026.
Wei, K., W. Chen, and W. Zhou, 2011: Changes in the East Asian cold season since 2000. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 69–79, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9232-y.
Wu, B. Y., J. Z. Su, and R. H. Zhang, 2011: Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56, 3220–3228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4696-4.
Wu, J., Y. N. Diao, and X. Z. Zhuang, 2016: The relationship between the Ural blocking in boreal winter and the East Asian winter monsoon. Climatic and Environmental Research, 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15172. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Xia, S., P. Liu, Z. H. Jiang, and J. Cheng, 2021: Simulation evaluation of AMO and PDO with CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in historical experiment. Advances in Earth Science, 36, 58–68, https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2021.004. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Xia, S., P. Liu, Z. H. Jiang, L. Tao, and H. Song, 2022: Evaluation and projection of the AMO and PDO variabilities in the CMIP5 models under different warming scenarios part1: Evaluation. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 97, 101260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101260.
Xie, Y. K., J. P. Huang, and Y. Z. Liu, 2017: From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 1758–1773, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4809.
Xu, M., W. S. Tian, J. K. Zhang, T. Wang, and K. Qie, 2021: Impact of sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara seas on the variation of the East Asian trough in late winter. J. Climate, 34, 1081–1097, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0205.1.
Yan, Z. W., J. J. Xia, C. Qian, and W. Zhou, 2011: Changes in seasonal cycle and extremes in China during the period 1960–2008. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-0006-3.
Yang, X. Y., and X. J. Yuan, 2014: The early winter sea ice variability under the recent Arctic climate shift. J. Climate, 27, 5092–5110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00536.1.
Yao, Y., D. H. Luo, A. G. Dai, and I. Simmonds, 2017: Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to arctic warming. Part I: Insights from observational analyses. J. Climate, 30, 3549–3568, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0261.1.
Yao, Y., W. Q. Zhang, D. H. Luo, L. H. Zhong, and L. Pei, 2022: Seasonal cumulative effect of Ural blocking episodes on the frequent cold events in China during the early winter of 2020/21. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 609–624, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1100-4.
Ye, K. H., and G. Messori, 2020: Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation drive the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern. J. Climate, 33, 5565–5587, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0403.1.
Ye, K. H., T. Jung, and T. Semmler, 2018: The influences of the Arctic troposphere on the midlatitude climate variability and the recent Eurasian cooling. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123, 10 162–10 184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028980.
Zhang, X. D., C. H. Lu, and Z. Y. Guan, 2012: Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 044044, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044044.
Zhao, L., W. Dong, X. F. Dong, S. P. Nie, X. Y. Shen, and Z. N. Xiao, 2022: Relations of enhanced high-latitude concurrent blockings with recent warm Arctic-cold continent patterns. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 127, e2021JD036117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036117.
Zhao, P., S. Yang, R. G. Wu, Z. P. Wen, J. M. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2012: Asian origin of interannual variations of summer climate over the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 25, 6594–6609, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00617.1.
Zhou, W., J. C. L. Chan, W. Chen, J. Ling, J. G. Pinto, and Y. P. Shao, 2009: Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3978–3991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2952.1.
Acknowledgements This study was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606403), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41790473) and the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8234068).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Article Highlights
• The occurrence frequency of a Ural persistent positive height anomaly event (PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000.
• The shift in the PDO to its negative phase and the sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas are conducive to the occurrence of a Ural PAE.
• The AMO shift from a negative to positive phase since the late-1990s promotes a southward shift in the location of a Ural PAE.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on the Ocean, Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Climate: In remembrance of Professor Yongqi Gao’s key contributions.
Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2365-6.
Electronic supplementary material
376_2023_2365_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lei, T., Li, S. The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2365-6
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2365-6