Abstract
Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosol, and land use/land cover change (LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), changes in surface air temperature and precipitation over China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099 are analyzed using multimodel climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show that the climate responses to forest changes are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario. Deforestation would increase the mean, interannual variability, and the trend of surface air temperature under the low radiative forcing scenario, but it would decrease those indices under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario. The changes in temperature show significant spatial heterogeneity. For precipitation, under the low radiative forcing scenario, deforestation would lead to a significant increase in northern China and a significant decrease in southern China, and the effects are persistent in the near term (2021–40), middle term (2041–70), and long term (2071–99). In contrast, under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation increases in the near term and long term over most parts of China, but it decreases in the middle term, especially in southern, northern, and northeast China. The magnitude of precipitation response to deforestation remains comparatively small.
摘要
人类活动通过温室气体 (GHG)、 气溶胶和土地利用/土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 显著影响地球气候. 为研究不同共享社会经济路径 (SSPs) 下森林变化对区域气候的影响, 利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6) 的子计划--土地利用模式比较计划 (LUMIP) 的多模式模拟结果, 分析了 2021–2099 年不同辐射强迫情景下中国地表气温和降水的变化. 结果表明, 在低辐射强迫情景下, 区域气候对森林变化的响应更为显著, 毁林将导致中国的年平均气温显著上升, 气温的年际变率和长期趋势增加; 而在中/高辐射强迫情景下, 毁林会造成中国大部分地区的平均气温及其年际变率和长期趋势下降. 对于降水量变化的影响, 在低辐射强迫情景下, 毁林将导致中国北方地区降水显著增加, 南方地区降水显著减少, 且其影响在近期 (2021–2040年)、 中期 (2041–2070年) 和长期 (2071–2099年) 三个不同阶段都持续存在; 而在中/高辐射强迫情景下, 中国大部分地区的降水量在短期和长期内增加, 但在中期减少, 特别是在中国华南、 华北和东北地区, 但降水变化的幅度远小于低辐射强迫情景下的变化强度.
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Data Availability Statement The CMIP6 model data used in this study can be accessed at the ESGF portal (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/).
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Acknowledgements
This study is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 41975081, the Research Funds for the Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Nanjing University, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 020914380103).
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• The temperature and precipitation changes in China due to deforestation have different responses under different climate warming backgrounds, and the responses are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario.
• Deforestation would lead to an increase in the annual mean surface air temperature and its interannual variability and trend in all seasons under the low radiative forcing scenario, and these changes show significant regional differences.
• Deforestation would lead to a significant increase (decrease) in precipitation in northern (southern) China under the low radiative forcing scenario. In contrast, the responses of temperature and precipitation changes are uncertain under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario.
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Huang, Y., Huang, A. & Tan, J. The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 1073–1088 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2230-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2230-z