Abstract
Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas. Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance. Using two dynamical forecasting systems, one from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM2-HR) and the other from the Met Office (GloSea5), this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows. Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows, but they underestimate the intensity. The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance. Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train, rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows, but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes. The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.
摘要
东北冷涡是引发中国北方地区低温过程和强降水的一个重要的气旋性环流系统. 对东北冷涡进行精准预测具有重要的现实意义. 本文评估了两个动力预测模式BCC-CSM2-HR和GloSea5对初夏东北冷涡的模拟能力和次季节预测技巧. 研究发现, 两个模式可以较好模拟出冷涡的空间结构但会低估冷涡的强度. BCC-CSM2-HR和GloSea5模式对东北冷涡强度的预测时效分别为10.2天和11.4天. 进一步分析表明, 两个模式可以模拟出东北冷涡形成、 快速增强、 消散的三阶段物理过程. 但是模式对各个阶段的物理过程模拟偏弱. 分析指出, 模式对欧亚大陆温带急流和东亚副热带急流的低估可能是导致冷涡演变过程中局地波流相互作用模拟偏弱的原因之一.
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Acknowledgements
This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFA0718000), NSF of China under Grant No. 42175075, and the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund.
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Article Highlights
• Both the BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5 systems have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows, but they underestimate the intensity.
• The subseasonal prediction skill limit for cut-off low intensity is about 10.2 days and 11.4 days in BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5 respectively during early summer.
• The models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train, rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the cut-off low evolution, but the models underestimate the amplitudes.
This paper is a contribution to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China.
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Nie, Y., Wu, J., Zuo, J. et al. Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2127–2134 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2197-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2197-9