Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

  • Published:
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Impacts of land models and initial land conditions (ICs) on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Two land models, the Oregon State University (OSU) land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory (Noah) land model, were used to get parallel experiments. The experiments also used land ICs from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS).

Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model’s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in El Niño years, compared to La Niña years, and the Noah model performed better than the OSU model in monsoon predictions for individual years. These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Annamalai, H., S. Xie, and J. P. McCreary, 2005: Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J. Climate, 18, 302–319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanford, H. F., 1884: On the connexion of Hamalayan snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, 37, 3–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett, T. P., L. Dumenil, U. Schlese, E. Roecker, and M. Latif, 1989: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 661–685.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang, C.-P., P. Harr, and J. Ju, 2001: Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 14, 2376–2380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, W., 2002: The impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the cycle of East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 595–610. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, W., D. Zhu, H. Liu, and S. Sun, 2009: Land-air interaction over arid/semi-arid areas in China and its impact on the East Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Calibration of the Land Surface Model (BATS) using multicriteria methods. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26, 1088–1098, doi 10.1007/s00376-009-8187-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ek, M. B., and Coauthors, 2003: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan, Y., and H. van den Dool, 2008: A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D01103, doi 10.1029/2007JD008470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fein, J. S., and P. Stephens, 1987: Monsoons. Wiley, New York, 384pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • FOCRAII, 2006: Second Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia. 6–8 April 2006, Beijing, China. [Available at http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/ccl/topics/FOCRAII-summary_1_1.pdf#search=%22FOCRAII%20Summary%22]

  • Gao, H., S. Yang, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, Y. Li, and B. Jha, 2010: Variations of the East Asian Mei-yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 24, 94–108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong, D., and C.-H. Ho, 2003: Arctic Oscillation signals in the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4066, doi 10.1029/2002JD002193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu, W., C. Li, X. Wang, W. Zhou, and W. Li, 2009: Link-age between Mei-yu precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the decadal timescale. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26, 101–108, doi 10.1007/s00376-009-0101-5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu, Z.-Z., and B. Huang, 2007: The predictive skill and the most predictable pattern in the tropical Atlantic: The effect of ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1786–1806.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, R., W. Chen, B. Yan, and R. Zhang, 2004: Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoon and ENSO cycle. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 407–424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEPDOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Atmos. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631–1643.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang, I.-S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383–395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang, I.-K., and J. Shukla, 2006: Dynamica seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 585–612.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Koster, R. D., and M. J. Suarez, 1995: The relative contributions of land and ocean processes to precipitation variability. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 13775–13790.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti, T. N., T. S. V. Vijava Kumar, and A. K. Mitra, 2006: Seasonal climate prediction of Indian summer monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 553–583.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lau, K.-M., and S. Yang, 1997: Climatology and interannual variability of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 141–162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau, K.-M., and W. Bua, 1998: Mechanism of monsoonsouthern oscillation coupling: Insights from GCM experiments. Climate Dyn., 14, 759–779.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau, N.-C., and B. Wang, 2006: Interaction between the Asian monsoon and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 479–512.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Y., and S. Yang, 2010: A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23, 4255–4262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang, J., S. Yang, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar, and Z. Zhang, 2009: Predictable patterns of Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS. Climate Dyn., 32, 989–1001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, P., Y. Qian, and A. Huang, 2009: Impacts of land surface and sea surface temperatures on the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos, Sci., 26, 493–502, doi 10.1007/s00376-009-0493-2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahrt, L., and H.-L. Pan, 1984: A two-layer model of soil hydrology. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 29, 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Misra, V., and L. Marx, 2009: The coupled seasonal hindcasts of the South American monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1101–1115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miyakoda, K., J. L. Kinter III, and S. Yang, 2003: The role of ENSO in the South Asian monsoon and premonsoon signals over the Tibetan plateau. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81, 1015–1039.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moorthi, S., H.-L. Pan, and P. Caplan, 2001: Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system. NWS Tech. Pro. Bull. 484, 14pp. [Available at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpb/484.htm]

  • Normand, C., 1953: Monsoon seasonal forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 79, 463–473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM3.0 Manual. NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, 08542, 692pp.

  • Qian, W., and S. Yang, 2000: Onset of the regional monsoon over Southeast Asia. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 75, 29–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodell, M., and Coauthors, 2004: The Global Land Data Assimilation System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 381–394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 19, 3483–3517.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495–1510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber, K. R., and Coauthors, 2001: Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2226–2248.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thiaw, W. M., and K.-C. Mo, 2005: Impact of sea surface temperature and soil moisture on seasonal rainfall prediction over the Sahel. J. Climate, 18, 5330–5343.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vernekar, A. D., J. Zhou, and J. Shukla, 1995: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on the Indian monsoon. J. Climate, 8, 248–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker, G. T., 1923: Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, VIII: A preliminary study of world weather. Memoirs of the Indian Meteorological Department, 24, 75–131.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, B., 2006: The Asian Monsoon. Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 787pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, B., I.-S. Kang, and J.-Y. Lee, 2004a: Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J. Climate, 17, 803–818.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, B., Lin Ho, Y. Zhang, and M.-M. Lu, 2004b: Definition of South China Sea monsoon onset and commencement of the East Asia summer monsoon. J. Climate, 17, 699–710.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, W., S. Saha, H.-L. Pan, S. Nadiga, and G. White, 2005: Simulation of ENSO in the new NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1574–1593.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster, P. J., and Coauthors, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451–14510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, C., S. Yang, A. Wang, and S.-K. Fong, 2005: Effect of condensational heating over the Bay of Bengal on the onset of South China Sea monsoon in 1998. Meteor. Atmos. Physics, 90, 37–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: The tropospheric biennial oscillation of the monsoon-ENSO system in an interactive ensemble coupled GCM. J. Climate, 17, 1623–1640.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9, 840–858.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue, Y., F. Zeng, and C. A. Schlosser, 1996: SSiB and its sensitivity to soil properties—A case study using HAPEX-Mobilhy data. Global Planetary Change, 13, 183–194.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., and K.-M. Lau, 1998: Influences of sea surface temperature and ground wetness on Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 11, 3230–3246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., and K.-M. Lau, 2006: Interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang Ed., Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 259–293.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., K.-M. Lau, S.-H. Yoo, J. L. Kinter, K. Miyakoda, and C.-H. Ho, 2004: Upstream subtropical signals preceding the Asian summer monsoon circulation. J. Climate, 17, 4213–4229.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., S.-H. Yoo, R. Yang, K. E. Mitchell, H. van den Dool, and R. W. Higgins, 2007: Response of seasonal simulations of a Regional Climate Model to high-frequency variability of soil moisture during the summers 1988 and 1993. J. Hydrometeorology., 8, 738–757.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., M. Wen, and R. W. Higgins, 2008a: Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 27, 88–103.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., Z. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang, and Y. Fan, 2008b: Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 21, 3755–3775.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, S., Y. Jiang, D. Zheng, R. W. Higgins, Q. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, and M. Wen, 2009: Variations of U.S. regional precipitation and simulations by the NCEP CFS: Focus on the Southwest. J. Climate, 22, 3211–3231.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari, T., 2006: Land-atmosphere interaction. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 459–478.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari, T., and Y. Seki, 1992: Role of the Asian monsoon on the interannual variability of the global climate system. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 177–189.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari, T., A. Kitoh, and T. Tokioka, 1991: Local and remote responses to excessive snow mass over Eurasia appearing in the northern spring and summer climate—A study with the MRI GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 69, 473–487.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, R., and Z. Zuo, 2011: Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China. J. Climate, 24, 3309–3322, doi 10.1175/2011JCLI4084.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuo, Z., and R. Zhang, 2007: The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52, 3310–3312.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers, F. W., 1993: Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon with the CCC GCM-1. J. Climate, 6, 470–486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Author notes

  1. Rongqian Yang

    Present address: I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, Maryland, 20852, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, 20746, USA

    Song Yang & Wayne Higgins

  2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Min Wen  (温 敏) & Renhe Zhang  (张人禾)

  3. NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, 20746, USA

    Rongqian Yang

Authors
  1. Song Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Min Wen  (温 敏)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rongqian Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Wayne Higgins
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Renhe Zhang  (张人禾)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Min Wen  (温 敏).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yang, S., Wen, M., Yang, R. et al. Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28, 1301–1317 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0167-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0167-8

Key words

Search

Navigation