Abstract
This study analyzed the patterns and drivers of LULC dynamics in relation to the expansion of large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia from 1972 to 2016. Aerial photographs (1972), Landsat images (1980, 2000) and SPOT5 satellite images (2016) were analyzed using GIS tools to reveal LULC changes, and documentation, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to ascertain the biophysical and socioeconomic implications and drivers of these dynamics. The study revealed that cultivated and rural settlement land, and urban built-up areas had expanded at the expense of forestland, woodland, shrubland and grassland. While an increase in the production of cash crops had brought some benefits to smallholder farmers, such as access to irrigation and modern agricultural inputs and technologies, the unregulated conversion of natural vegetation to cultivated land resulted in a loss of biodiversity, deforestation, and reduction of pasture and firewood. We identified that significant LULC changes in the study area were caused by intersecting biophysical, economic, institutional, technological and demographic factors, which reinforced each other with varying magnitudes at different moments in time. These changes were underpinned by one key driver, that is, government agricultural policies that promoted investment in commercial agriculture for national and export markets. The study shows that understanding the complex interaction between the contributing factors and drivers of LULC change is crucial to inform decision-making and policies, in particular, by directing responses towards the underlying drivers of change rather than only the proximate causes.
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Notes
However, whereas the 1975 land policy prohibited the leasing of land and hiring of labor, and capped the maximum landholding per individual to 10 hectares, these measures were removed by the revised 1995 policy, which also introduced the provision of compensation for land that was redistributed or for which the right of use had expired (Crewett and Korf 2008).
The image for 2016 was used because it was the most recent source of data freely available from open sources at the time of the study.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by [Almaz Deche], [Mohammed Assen], [Shimelis Demene] [Jessica Budds] and [Amanuel Kumsa]. The first draft of the manuscript was written by [Almaz Deche]. All authors read, improved and approved the final manuscript.
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Appendix 1
Appendix 1
Error Matrix Accuracy Totals For the Classified Image
Class Type Determined From Reference Source | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year 2016 | Shrubland | Built-up Area | Grassland | Wood Land | Riverine Vegetation | Cultivated Land | Plantation | Forest | Overall Classification | Producers Accuracy | |
Class Types Determined from Classified Map | Shrubland | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 93.75% |
Built-up Area | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 100.00% | |
Grassland | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 85.71% | |
Wood Land | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 95.00% | |
Riverine Vegetation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 100.00% | |
Cultivated Land | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 97.56% | |
Plantation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 100.00% | |
Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 100.00% | |
Truth Overall | 16 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 13 | 41 | 15 | 11 | 141 | ||
User Accuracy (%) | 100 | 100 | 92.31 | 90.48 | 100 | 95.24 | 100 | 100 | |||
Overall Accuracy = 96.45% | |||||||||||
Kappa = 0.957 | |||||||||||
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Deche, A., Assen, M., Damene, S. et al. Dynamics and Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Upper Awash Basin, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental Management 72, 160–178 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01814-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01814-z