Study Area and Datasets
The area of this study is the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PNPG) in northern Portugal (longitude 8°25′W and latitude 41°41′N), the only protected area with national park status in the country (Fig. 1). PNPG was initially established as a protected area in 1971 and it is included also in the Natura 2000 network (European Council 1979, 1992).
PNPG occupies a territory of approximately 700 km2. The present human population living within the PNPG is approximately 8800 inhabitants (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2011). Low-intensity agriculture and extensive grazing have been economically unproductive and the region is currently undergoing significant changes due to farmland abandonment. A significant area of the park has been classified as High Nature Value farmland by the European Union (European Environment Agency 2004). Habitat composition contains Atlantic and Mediterranean habitat types.
For the hotspots and the complementarity approaches, the territory of PNPG was divided in a grid of UTM quadrats of 2 km × 2 km, the highest resolution common to all species data. We used presence-absence data covering 13 species of amphibians, 20 species of reptiles, and 144 species of birds. Out of the total of 233 quadrats included in the analysis, information was missing for 13, 11, and 16 quadrats for birds, reptiles, and amphibians, respectively. The species data are atlas distribution data collected at the level of PNPG and published in Pimenta and Santarém (1996) for birds, and in Soares et al. (2005) for herpetofauna. The data represent recorded presences through multi-year monitoring of the territory of the park based on several methodologies (visual encounter surveys, calls surveys, search of potential shelters). The data also include ad hoc observations by the authors and the staff of PNPG. The data do not include abundance records.
For wilderness mapping, we rasterized the territory of the PNPG and the adjacent area in a grid with a pixel resolution of 10 m2. We based the analysis (see below) on infrastructure data extracted from maps of the Portuguese Geographical Institute of the Army (Instituto Geográfico do Exército 1997).
We defined megafauna as the species in PNPG with the largest body mass for which we had data (PNPG-ICN 2008). As such, we used point data for locations of dens of wolf Canis lupus (Linnaeus, 1758), and past and present nesting sites for the eagle-owl Bubo bubo (Linnaeus, 1758), and golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos (Linnaeus, 1758). These data are based on annual monitoring of the wolf population and annual surveys of the nests of the birds of prey (PNPG-ICN 2008). We also used polygon data for important areas for wild goat Capra pyrenaica (Schinz, 1838), which were defined based on habitat characteristics (Moço et al. 2006). We created a buffer of 1 km around the point locations and we merged these buffer areas with those important for the wild goat. We chose this size of the buffer based on the literature on the effects of human disturbances on wolves and birds of prey (Thiel et al. 1998; Martínez et al. 2003; Penteriani et al. 2005; Ruddock and Whitfield 2007; Iliopoulos et al. 2014).
We used a digital elevation model (DEM) to define areas important for landslide protection (Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center 2011) by prioritizing terrains with slopes steeper than 30°. We merged these areas with spring protection areas and groundwater recharge areas, which were calculated by the administration of PNPG based on the methodology described in Brilha (2005). The calculation was done based on land use, slope and elevation, hydrology of the area, and data collected from 130 locations across the park (PNPG-ICN 2008). These data refer to the supply of ecosystem services. The local population utilizes these ecosystem services through the use of local water and soil resources but the available data do not make it possible to estimate the spatial variation in the use of ecosystem services.
We used the ArcGIS 10 software package (Esri, CA, USA) for mapping and spatial analysis. We used MARXAN software (Ball et al. 2009) for applying the complementarity prioritization approach (Ardron et al. 2008). Statistical analyses were carried out in the R software package (R Development Core Team 2011).
Species-Based Approach: Hotspots
We calculated the number of species present and an average rarity and vulnerability for each grid cell. The rarity value of each species was the inverse of the number of cells in which the species was present. We assigned vulnerability scores to species on a scale from 0 to 10 according to the national red list (Cabral et al. 2005). We gave the least concern species the score 0 and to the critically endangered the maximum score of 10. We assigned scores to the next two threat categories at an equal distance of two units: 8—threatened, 6—vulnerable. Both near threatened and data-deficient categories contain species which cannot be assigned to a threatened category but which can also not be considered of least concern due to lack of data or due to impeding future threat. Thus, we combined these species into one mixed bag category, and we gave it the middle vulnerability score between least concern and vulnerable—3. We increased the difference in units compared to the threatened categories but, in the same time, we gave it a higher vulnerability score than the least concern category because it contains species that might be threatened presently or in the future. We assigned the value corresponding to the data-deficient class to the species for which information was not available. The choice of the scoring methodology does not have a strong impact on the ranking of the grid cells based on the hotspots methodology (Online resource 1).
We normalized the richness, average rarity, and average vulnerability into the [0,1] interval according to the formula:
$$x_{\text{n}} = \frac{{x - x_{\hbox{min} } }}{{x_{\hbox{max} } - x_{\hbox{min} } }},$$
(1)
where x
n is the normalized value, x is the initial value, and x
min and x
max are the minimum and the maximum values across all species.
We prioritized the grid cells using AI = SRn + R
n + V
n, where AI is the aggregated index according to which we define biodiversity hotspots, and SR
n
, R
n
, and V
n
are the normalized values for species richness, rarity, and vulnerability, respectively, for each grid cell. We decided to give them equal weight in our calculation because species richness, rarity, and vulnerability are all frequently used in conservation prioritization, many times jointly (Williams et al. 1996; Lawler et al. 2003; Brooks et al. 2006), but they often prioritize different areas without a consensus on which metric is better at capturing conservation value (Lennon et al. 2004; Orme et al. 2005).
Species-Based Approach: Complementarity
For the complementarity analysis, we simplified the vulnerability scoring used for the hotspots methodology. We classified as vulnerable all species which were not included in the least concern category of the national red list (56 out of 177 species). After several test runs, we considered a coverage of 50 % of the total number of occurrences of each vulnerable species and 10 % of the occurrences of each non-vulnerable species. We chose these percentages because they were the highest values for which all representation targets were fulfilled while allowing enough variation in the different sets of selected areas (Ball et al. 2009). We set the target representation at 100 % for the species present in only one planning unit and we considered the costs of all planning units equal to unity. We performed 2000 runs of the MARXAN software and we used only the results meeting all the conservation targets. We then used the frequency of selection of each cell, also known as summed irreplaceability (Pryce et al. 2006; Ardron et al. 2008), as the prioritizing score.
Species-Based Approach: Wilderness
We used five infrastructure elements: the primary and secondary road networks, the human settlements, the power grid, and the hydroelectric dams. We chose these elements based on the local context of the park and on the literature (Fritz et al. 2000). Other elements used in the wilderness mapping literature, especially at larger scales, include railroads, human population density, biophysical naturalness based on expert opinions, and size of ecologically intact regions (Sanderson et al. 2002; Mittermeier et al. 2003; Woolmer et al. 2008). We expect such metrics to be highly correlated to the wilderness value calculated based on our selected infrastructures (e.g. human population density) or to be irrelevant for the scale of our study area (e.g. size of ecologically intact regions). We included in the analysis both the infrastructure inside the territory of the park, and the infrastructure found in the proximity of the park and which was likely to have an impact inside PNPG. As such, the external infrastructures were located in an air distance radius around the park of approximately 20 km in the case of the primary road network, and approximately 10 km in the case of the secondary road network, the power grid and the human settlements. We chose to consider infrastructures at these radiuses outside the park in order to account for both biodiversity effects and the human access and visual impact dimensions of wilderness (Fritz and Carver 1998; Cinzano et al. 2000; Carver et al. 2012).
We calculated the distance from each pixel to the nearest infrastructure of each type. We normalized the values into the interval [0,1] according to the formula:
$$d_{\text{n}} = 1 - \frac{1}{1 + \alpha \,*\,d},$$
(2)
where d
n is the normalized value, d is the distance to the closest infrastructure element of the considered type, and α is a scaling constant equal to 0.001. We used this value of the scaling constant in order to describe the nonlinear relationship between human infrastructures and its impacts on biodiversity (Thiel et al. 1998; De Molenaar et al. 2006; Ruddock and Whitfield 2007) and on the perception of wilderness (Cinzano et al. 2000; Kuechly et al. 2012). These impacts are strong and rapidly decreasing in the first hundreds of meters or the first kilometers, depending on the type of infrastructure. Our formula leads to a rapid decrease of human impact in the 2 km adjacent to human infrastructures and the impact reaches an asymptote beyond this distance.
We calculated the wilderness index according to the formula:
$$W = \sum\limits_{i} {\beta_{i} d_{i} },$$
(3)
where W is the wilderness score in any pixel of the map, d is the distance from that pixel to the closest infrastructure element of type i, and β
i
is the weight assigned to infrastructure of type i. We assigned the weights for each infrastructure based on the assessment of the technical staff of PNPG and the impacts documented in the literature (Fritz et al. 2000; Carver et al. 2002). Thus, primary roads and human settlements had β
i
= 1, and secondary roads, power lines, and hydroelectric dams had β
i
= 0.25.
Comparison of the Prioritization Approaches
The comparison of the three prioritization approaches includes the spatial congruence between the three approaches and the coverage of four biodiversity dimensions: species representativeness, wilderness coverage, coverage of important areas for megafauna, and ecosystem services. We calculated the spatial congruence between the three approaches for three levels of high-priority areas for conservation: 10, 20, and 30 % of the PNPG territory. Due to the lower resolution of the data used for the hotspots and complementarity approaches, the percentage cut-offs for the highest priority areas for these approaches have a variation from the high-priority targets of ±2 % of the total area.
We calculated Spearman’s rank correlations between the prioritizing score of each approach, species richness, rarity, and vulnerability. We averaged the wilderness scores overlapping each of the 233 grid cells and used it to calculate the correlations.
Table 1 Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients (ρ values) between the values of the prioritization parameters for the three approaches, species richness, species rarity, and species vulnerability
We assessed the efficiency of species- and wilderness-based approaches by calculating the average percentage of each biodiversity dimension (BD) being protected per percentage unit of prioritized area. We calculated BD according to the formula:
$${\text{BD}}\,(\% ) = \frac{1}{\varLambda}\frac{{\text{BD}}_{\varLambda}}{\text{BD}}_{\hbox{max} }$$
where Λ is the percentage of area being prioritized; BDΛ is the value of the biodiversity dimension covered by the prioritized area; and BDmax is the maximum value for the respective biodiversity dimension, either number of species, total wilderness value, or total important area for ecosystem services, and megafauna. We assigned Λ two percentage values: approximately 28 %—the minimum complementarity prioritized area that covers all the species in our list; and approximately 44 %—the minimum hotspots prioritized area that covers all the species. The percentages are approximations because of the different spatial units used for each approach but the difference between the sizes of the prioritized areas is never larger than 1 % of the total area of PNPG. Values are rounded up to two decimal places.
In order to calculate the cumulative representativeness of species, wilderness, and important areas for megafauna and ecosystem services, we converted the maps of the hotspots and complementarity approaches to rasters with a pixel resolution equal to the resolution of the wilderness map. We ranked all the points of the three prioritization maps into a K number of ranks of equal area, from the highest to the lowest values of the respective prioritizing score, with rank 1 representing the highest values and rank K representing the lowest values. Due to the high clustering of summed irreplaceability values, the value of K was 19 for the complementarity approach, and 25 for the hotspots and wilderness approaches. We derived the set of points belonging to each rank K for each map as {(x
1
K
, y
1
K
), (x
2
K
, y
2
K
), …, (x
n
K
, y
n
K
)} where x, y were the spatial coordinates of each of the n points of rank K.
We classified as rare those species that were present in less than 25 % of the total number of cells. We calculated the cumulative number of total, rare, and vulnerable species by intersecting the ranks of each prioritization map with the species data. We then counted the number of unique species covered by each rank. In the case of the hotspots and complementarity maps, the points corresponding to different ranks overlapped with the grid cells of the species data. In the case of the wilderness map, we considered a species covered by a certain rank when the points of the respective rank intersected at any rate the grid cells in which that species was present.
We calculated the coverage of the areas important for megafauna and ecosystem services by intersecting the rank points of each prioritization map with the total amount of important areas for megafauna and ecosystem services, respectively. We calculated the coverage of megafauna and ecosystem services areas for each rank K, weighted by the number of megafauna species and ecosystem services, respectively, present in overlapping areas.
We measured the wilderness coverage of the three approaches by intersecting the rank points of the prioritization maps with the wilderness score map. We extracted the wilderness value for each point of each rank. We then calculated the total wilderness covered by each rank according to the formula:
$$W_{K} = \mathop \sum \limits_{i = 1}^{{n_{K} }} W(x_{K}^{i} ,y_{K}^{i} ),$$
(4)
where W
K
is the total wilderness score covered by rank K and W(x
i
K
, y
i
K
) is the wilderness value corresponding to the point i of the n
k
number of points corresponding to rank K.