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Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

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Abstract

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of Mark Weimar, Swathy Mahasenan, Carmen Arimescu, Tara Eschbach, and Amanda Dunham from PNNL and Michael Stock from ANL. This article was prepared as an account of work performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is managed for the United States Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute, and Argonne National Laboratory is managed for the Department of Energy by the University of Chicago. The views expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Department of Energy, Battelle Memorial Institute, or the University of Chicago.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland, Washington, 99352-2458, USA

    Michael J. Scott, Charlie A. Brandt, Amoret L. Bunn, David W. Engel, Paul W. Eslinger, Terri B. Miley, Bruce A. Napier & Ellen L. Prendergast

  2. Argonne National LaboratoryArgonne, Illinois, 60439, USA

    Leslie A. Nieves

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  1. Michael J. Scott
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  2. Charlie A. Brandt
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Correspondence to Michael J. Scott.

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Scott, M.J., Brandt, C.A., Bunn, A.L. et al. Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model. Environmental Management 35, 84–98 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-0071-1

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