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Dynamic linkage between oil prices and exchange rates: new global evidence

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Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic linkage between crude oil prices and exchange rates from a global perspective. Unlike the conventional cointegration specification used in earlier works, we evaluate long- and short-run relations based on the pooled mean group approach. Taking monthly data of real oil prices and real exchange rates from the period January 1997 to July 2015, we classify 81 countries by their net oil import status (i.e., oil-importing and oil-exporting) and exchange rate arrangement systems (i.e., free-floating and managed floating), presenting results that the long-run relationship between oil prices and exchange rates depends on country-specific circumstances. For countries adopting free-floating systems, oil importers reveal a significantly negative bidirectional correlation, while oil exporters show no correlation between oil prices and exchange rates. As for managed floating systems, only exchange rates have predictive content for oil prices no matter in the cases of oil importers or exporters. Knowledge of these relationships can guide government policy development to prevent sudden and substantial shocks from crude oil price and exchange rate movements.

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Data availability

The datasets are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. Available at http://www.eia.gov.

  2. In the case of the long-run coefficients being large but insignificant, the test statistics are negative. This result is the same as those reported in Asafu-Adjaye et al. (2016).

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the insightful comments and suggestions from the Editor and two anonymous referees on the earlier draft of this paper. These authors contributed equally to this study and share first authorship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, National Chung Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan

    Bwo-Nung Huang

  2. Institute of Development Studies, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China

    Chi-Chuan Lee

  3. Takming University of Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan

    Yu-Fang Chang

  4. Research Center of the Central China for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China

    Chien-Chiang Lee

  5. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China

    Chien-Chiang Lee

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  1. Bwo-Nung Huang
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  2. Chi-Chuan Lee
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Correspondence to Chien-Chiang Lee.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Table 7.

Table 7 List of 81 countries classified into subsamples
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Huang, BN., Lee, CC., Chang, YF. et al. Dynamic linkage between oil prices and exchange rates: new global evidence. Empir Econ 61, 719–742 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01874-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01874-8

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