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Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?

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Abstract

We examine whether gold is an effective hedge against inflation over different time horizons. Using a stationary test with a flexible Fourier function, we consider all possible structural breaks with unknown forms and find that real gold returns over horizons ranging from 1 month to 15 years are nonlinear stationary processes. Although the real gold return may deviate from the inflation hedge rate because of holding opportunity cost and insufficient demand, over time it reverts to the long-run hedge rate. The results indicate that gold has generally maintained its purchasing power for the past 39 years. Therefore, gold can be a reliable hedge against inflation in both short and long time horizons. It is reasonable for investors to hold a certain amount of gold to hedge against the risk of inflation or to diversify assets, regardless of holding period.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Number 71873014]; the University of Science and Technology Beijing [Grant Number 06500106].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Donlinks School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

    Yingying Xu

  2. School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, People’s Republic of China

    Chi-Wei Su

  3. Vice Provost Global Strategies and Studies, University of Houston, E. W. Cullen Bldg., Ste. 101, 4302 University Dr., Houston, TX, 77204, USA

    Jaime Ortiz

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  1. Yingying Xu
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  2. Chi-Wei Su
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  3. Jaime Ortiz
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Correspondence to Jaime Ortiz.

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Xu, Y., Su, CW. & Ortiz, J. Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?. Empir Econ 60, 1175–1189 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01807-0

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