Abstract
This paper presents a methodological procedure to evaluate the influence of spatial proximity on evolution of cities to detect regional differences in their spatiotemporal dynamics. The six-step method based on a set of statistical methods can be computed with a new R package: estdaR. The first step consists of the usual characterization of the cross-sectional distribution of the urban areas by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions for a set of significant years. In the second and third steps, the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain to evaluate the effect of global and local spatial autocorrelation on the transition probabilities with a set of indices based on the spatial version of the standard Markov chain. The fourth, fifth, and sixth steps perform in-depth analysis to detect the existence and interaction of spatial regimes in the movement direction and ranking mobility of urban distribution. We apply this novel strategy for the period 1930–2002 to analyze the entire Chilean urban system—not only the Central Zone, in which most of the population and economic activities are concentrated, but also other urban zones in the country.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
This phenomenon is also common in other Latin American countries with highly centralized governments exerting greater control over resources (Willis et al. 1999).
estdaR must be installed in the R console: devtools::install_github("amvallone/estdaR").
Throughout this paper, the terms “movement” and “mobility” refer to movements across the population distribution, as is common in the social inequality literature (Kang and Rey 2019). In this context, population mobility could thus be viewed as a re-ranking phenomenon in which cities switch population positions. Mobility could also be viewed as occurring, however, whenever cities move away from their previous city size levels. The former is termed absolute mobility and the latter relative mobility.
Spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence are used as interchangeable terms, though in strong sense, the first is a specific type of the second.
A rose diagram is a circular chart to display data that contain direction and magnitude variables. They normally comprises of 8 or 16 radiating spokes, which represent degrees of a circle or compass points North, East, South, West and their intermediate directions. Each direction axis has values increasing outwards and similar to pie charts, the data are divided into proportional slices or sectors. The arc length of each slice is proportional to the quantity it represents.
Rey (2016) presents the full mathematical decomposition of this index.
Despite the existence of previous censuses, we choose 1930 as the first period of analysis because the Southern city of Aysen was founded in 1928. We include Aysen in the sample because cities are scarce and sparsely disseminated in the far South of Chile. We excluded information from the 2012 Chilean census due to significant methodological problems. The new 2017 census data on entities are not yet available. For more information, see Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (2014).
The Republic of Chile is politically divided into regions, provinces, “comunas” (municipalities) and censal districts. Each municipality contains different “entities”: cities, towns, villages, and hamlets, among others.
There are 10 cities registered in the 2002 Census but not in the 1930 Census: Alto Hospicio (Region I), Estación Zaldivar (Region II), El Salvador (Region III), El Quisco (Region V), Quirihue (Region VIII), Padre de las Casas and Labranza (Region IX), Panguipulli and Los Muermos (Region X), and Padre Hurtado (Metropolitan Region). To homogenize the panel database, we added the population of these new cities to their corresponding originals. For example, since Alto Hospicio became independent of Iquique before the 2002 Census, the population of the former was added to that of the latter.
As a robustness check, similar results were obtained with other spatial weight specifications, such as driving distance and other neighborhood measures. Complete computations are available from the authors upon request.
In this paper, p values are computed with a 1000-replication process.
References
Agovino M (2014) Do “good neighbors” enhance regional performances in including disabled people in the labor market? A spatial Markov chain approach. Ann Reg Sci 53:93–121
Agovino M, Crociata A, Sacco PL (2016) Location matters for pro-environmental behavior: a spatial Markov Chains approach to proximity effects in differentiated waste collection. Ann Reg Sci 56:295–315
Anderson G, Ge Y (2005) The size distribution of Chinese cities. Reg Sci Urban Econ 35:756–776
Anselin L (1995) Local Indicators of Spatial Association—LISA. Geogr Anal 27:93–115
Anselin L, Rey S (2014) Modern spatial econometrics in practice: a guide to GeoDa, GeoDaSpace and PySAL. GeoDa Press, Chicago
Antrop M (2004) Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe. Landsc Urban Plan 67:9–26
Baeninger R (1997) Redistribución espacial de la población:características y tendencias del caso brasileño. Notas de población
Bickenbach F, Bode E (2003) Evaluating the Markov Property in studies of economic convergence. Int Reg Sci Rev 26:363–392
Bustos Validiva H (2013) Historia de Isla de Maipo, Municipalidad de Isla de Maipo. Municipalidad de Isla de Maipo
Cambiaso PS, Alonso MC, Claro CF (2001) Migraciones internas hacia la Región Metropolitana de Santiago de Chile:una comparación con planteamientos teóricos. Investig Geogr 35:1
Casado-Díaz JM, Martínez-Bernabéu L, Rowe F (2017) An evolutionary approach to the delimitation of labour market areas:an empirical application for Chile. Spat Econ Anal 12(4):379–403
Da Cunha JMP (2003) Urbanización, redistribución espacial de la población y transformaciones socioeconómicas en América Latina. United Nations Publications, New York
Da Cunha JMP (2013) Questions and challenges in studies on Latin-American cities. Chapters 2013:127–152
Davis JC, Henderson JV (2003) Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process. J Urban Econ 53:98–125
De Mattos CA (1999) Santiago de Chile, globalización y expansión metropolitana:lo que existía sigue existiendo. EURE (Santiago) 25:29–56
Delmelle E, Thill JC, Wang C (2016) Spatial dynamics of urban neighborhood quality of life. Ann Reg Sci 56:687–705
Desmet K, Henderson JV (2015) The geography of development within countries. In: Duranton G, Henderson JV, Strange W (eds) Handbook of regional and urban economics. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 1457–1517
Duranton G (2016) Determinants of city growth in Colombia. Pap Reg Sci 95:101–131
Escolano Utrilla S (2012) Dinámica reciente del sistema urbano chileno 1970–2002: integración a escala nacional. Bola Asoc Geógr Esp 59:129–150
Escolano Utrilla S, Ortiz Véliz J (2004) Cambios de la configuración urbana y «sintaxis del espacio» en ciudades intermedias; el caso de La Serena (Chile). Estud Geogr 65:297–320
Escolano Utrilla S, Ortiz Véliz J, Moreno Mora R (2007) Globalización y cambios funcionales recientes en las ciudades del sistema urbano chileno. Cuad Geogr 41:33–60
Geisse G (1977) Origen y evolución del sistema urbano nacional. EURE (Santiago) 5:37–46
Geisse G, Valdivia M (1978) Urbanización e industrialización en Chile. EURE (Santiago) 5:15
Gregory T, Patuelli R (2015) Demographic ageing and the polarization of regions: an exploratory space–time analysis. Environ Plan A Econ Space 47:1192–1210
Grinstead C, Snell JL (1997) Introduction to probability. American Mathematical Society, Providence
Gutiérrez MLS, Rey SJ (2013) Space-time income distribution dynamics in Mexico. Ann GIS 19:195–207
Hamilton JD (1994) Time series analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Henderson JV (2005) Urbanization and growth. In: Aghion P, Durlauf S (eds), Handbook of economic growth, vol 1, no Part B, pp 1543–1591
Henderson JV, Shalizi Z, Venables AJ (2001) Geography and development. J Econ Geogr 1:81–105
Henríquez C, Azócar G, Romero H (2006) Monitoring and modeling the urban growth of two mid-sized Chilean cities. Habitat Int 30:945–964
Hoàng NH (2013) Toward an integrated ASEAN labor market. Prospects and challenges for CLMV countries. VNU J Econ Bus 29(5):34–42
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (2005) Chile:ciudades, pueblos, aldeas y caseríos, 2005. http://historico.ine.cl/canales/usuarios/cedoc_online/censos/pdf/censo_2002_publicado_junio_2005.pdf
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (2014) Auditoría Técnica a la base de datos del levantamiento censal año 2012
Ioannides Y, Overman H (2004) Spatial evolution of the US urban system. J Econ Geogr 4:131–156
Kane K, Tuccillo J, York AM et al (2014) A spatio-temporal view of historical growth in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Landsc Urban Plan 121:70–80
Kang W, Rey S (2019) Measures of income mobility. PySAL Notbooks. http://pysal.org/notebooks/dynamics/giddy/Mobility_measures
Kendall MG (1962) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin & Company Limited, London
Lanaspa L, Pueyo F, Sanz F (2003) The evolution of Spanish urban structure during the twentieth century. Urban Stud 40:567–580
Le Gallo J (2004) Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions: a Markov Chains approach. Int Reg Sci Rev 27:138–163
Le Gallo J, Chasco C (2008) Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001. Empir Econ 34:59–80
Mutlu S (1986) City-forming propensities in a central place hierarchy: application of Beckmann–Mcpherson model to the Turkish urban system. Ann Reg Sci 20(2):28–43
Nitsch V (2001) City growth in Europe. Duncker & Humblot, Berlin
Olave D (2005) El sistema urbano de Chile central. Desafíos actuales y medio ambientales. Scr Nova 194:69
Paci R, Usai S (2008) Agglomeration economies, spatial dependence and local industry growth. Rev d’Écon Ind 123(3):87–109
Parr JB (2012) Spatial-structure differences between urban and regional systems. Ann Reg Sci 49:293–303
Pimentel M (2000) La reestructuración de los espacios nacionales en los inicios del siglo XXI: continuidad y cambio en la distribución espacial de la población mexicana. Santiago de Chile, CELADE, mimeo
Puertas OL, Henríquez C, Meza FJ (2014) Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045. Land Use Policy 38:415–425
Quah DT (1996) Empirics for economic growth and convergence. Eur Econ Rev 40:1353–1375
Rey SJ (2001) Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence. Geogr Anal 33:195–214
Rey S (2004) Spatial analysis of regional income inequality. In: Goodchild MF, Janelle DG (eds) Spatially integrated social science. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 280–299
Rey S (2015) Python Spatial Analysis Library (PySAL): an update and illustration. In: Geocomputation: a practical primer, SAGE, London, pp 233–254
Rey SJ (2016) Space–time patterns of rank concordance: local indicators of mobility association with application to spatial income inequality dynamics. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 106:788–803
Rey SJ, Janikas MV (2006) STARS: space–time analysis of regional systems. Geogr Anal 38:67–86
Rey SJ, Murray AT, Anselin L (2011) Visualizing regional income distribution dynamics. Lett Spat Resour Sci 4:81–90
Rey SJ, Mack EA, Koschinsky J (2012) Exploratory space–time analysis of burglary patterns. J Quant Criminol 28:509–531
Rey SJ, Kang W, Wolf L (2016) The properties of tests for spatial effects in discrete Markov chain models of regional income distribution dynamics. J Geogr Syst 18:377–398
Rodríguez J (2007) United Nations expert group meeting on population distribution, urbanization, internal migration and development. United Nations Secretariat New York, pp 21–23
Rodríguez J, Rowe F (2018) How is internal migration reshaping metropolitan populations in Latin America? A new method and new evidence. Popul Stud 72(2):253–273
Rodríguez J, González D, Ojeda M et al (2009) El sistema de ciudades chileno en la segunda mitad del siglo XX: entre la suburbanización y la desconcentración (The Chilean City System during the Second Half of the 20th Century: between sub-urbanization and decentralization). Estud Demogr Urbanos 24:7–48
Rowe F (2017) The Chilean internal Migration (CHIM) database: a temporally consistent spatial data framework for the analysis of human mobility. REGION 4(3):R1–R6
Rozenblat C, Pumain D (2018) Metropolization and polycentrism in the European urban system. In: Rozenblat S, Rozenblat S (eds) International and transnational perspectives on urban systems. Springer, Berlin, pp 117–142
Santiago CM, Raggi JPF, Erices LV (2016) Urban growth trends in midsize Chilean cities: the case of Temuco. urbe. Rev Bras Gestão Urbana 8:375–389
Sayas JP (2006) Urban sprawl in the periurban coastal zones of Athens. Epitheor Koinonikon Ereun 120(121):71–104
Schmidheiny K, Suedekum J (2015) The pan-European population distribution across consistently defined functional urban areas. Econ Lett 133:10–13
Scott A (2008) Inside the city: on urbanisation, public policy and planning. Urban Stud 45(4):755–772
Soo KT (2014) Zipf, Gibrat and geography: evidence from China, India and Brazil. Pap Reg Sci 93(1):159–181
Soto J, Paredes D (2016) Cities, wages, and the urban hierarchy. J Reg Sci 56:596–614
Venables AJ (2005) Spatial disparities in developing countries: cities, regions, and international trade. J Econ Geogr 5:3–21
Willis E, Garman CCB, Haggard S (1999) The politics of decentralization in Latin America. Latin Am Res Rev 34(1):7–56
Wu JX, He LY (2017) How do Chinese cities grow? A distribution dynamics approach. Phys A Stat Mech Appl 470(15):105–118
Xiufang R, Zhongwu Z, Yajie S et al (2015) Temporal and spatial evolution of the cities along China section of the. J Desert Res 35:248–252
Xu Z, Zhu N (2009) City size distribution in China: Are large cities dominant? Urban Stud 46:2159–2185
Ye X, Xie Y (2012) Re-examination of Zipf’s law and urban dynamic in China: a regional approach. Ann Reg Sci 49:135–156
Funding
The funding was provided by Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España (Grand No. ECO2015-65758-P).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vallone, A., Chasco, C. Spatiotemporal methods for analysis of urban system dynamics: an application to Chile. Ann Reg Sci 64, 421–454 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00960-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00960-9