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Stability of latent classes in group-based trajectory modeling of depressive symptoms in mothers of children with epilepsy: an internal validation study using a bootstrapping procedure

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to utilize bootstrapping to investigate the robustness of latent class trajectories and risk factors of depressive symptoms among mothers of children with epilepsy.

Methods

Data were obtained from a national prospective cohort study (2004–09) of children newly diagnosed with epilepsy and their families in Canada (n = 339). Latent classes of depressive symptom trajectories were modeled using a semi-parametric group-based trajectory modeling approach. Multinomial logistic regression identified risk factors predicting trajectory group membership.

Results

Four trajectories were identified: low stable, borderline, moderate increasing, and high decreasing. Goodness of fit, posterior probabilities, and parameter estimates obtained with bootstrapping were not significantly different from the original sample. Calculation of the root mean square error demonstrated minimal non-ignorable bias for three parameter estimates, which was subsequently removed with additional sampling. Risk factors identified were identical for the original sample and the bootstrap, and differences in odds ratios, as calculated with the method of variance estimation recovery, were not significant.

Conclusions

As examined using a bootstrapping procedure, group-based trajectory modeling offers a robust methodology to uncover potential heterogeneity in populations and identify high-risk individuals.

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Notes

  1. In comparison to other models tested, the four-group model demonstrated the best fit based on the specified criteria, and had the highest probability of being the correct model. A three-group model had a BIC index of −4204.84 and −4197.17 posterior probabilities of group membership ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 and 0.81 to 0.93 for the original and bootstrap samples, respectively. A five-group model had a BIC index of −4188.88 and −4179.13 posterior probabilities of group membership ranging from 0.71 to 0.87 and 0.73 to 0.91, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Dr. Bobby Jones for his assistance with PROC TRAJ. This research was funded by an operating grant to Dr. Kathy Speechley from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research (MOP-64311) and a Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship awarded to Dr. Mark Ferro.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Offord Centre for Child Studies, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Chedoke Site, Central Building, Room 310, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4K1, Canada

    Mark A. Ferro

  2. Department of Paediatrics, Western University, London, ON, Canada

    Kathy N. Speechley

  3. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, Kresge Building, Room 201, 1151 Richmond Street, London, ON, N6A 5C1, Canada

    Kathy N. Speechley

  4. Children’s Health Research Institute, Western University, London, ON, Canada

    Kathy N. Speechley

Authors
  1. Mark A. Ferro
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  2. Kathy N. Speechley
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Correspondence to Mark A. Ferro.

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Ferro, M.A., Speechley, K.N. Stability of latent classes in group-based trajectory modeling of depressive symptoms in mothers of children with epilepsy: an internal validation study using a bootstrapping procedure. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 48, 1077–1086 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-012-0622-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-012-0622-6

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