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Evolution of Drought Climatology and Variability in the Central Anatolia Region, Turkey, for the Period 1970–2020

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Abstract

In this study, drought climatology and drought variability in the continental semi-arid and dry sub-humid Central Anatolia Region were analyzed using the annual and seasonal precipitation totals, Aridity Index (AI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), along with the long-term trends in their time-series. Trends in precipitation totals, 12-month SPI and annual AI series were statistically determined by applying the Mann–Kendall rank correlation test (M–K test) and its sequential analysis. The climatological probability of drought and wet events was evaluated according to different classes in the region. Annual AI values indicate that dry sub-humid climate was dominant from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, and then semi-arid conditions were dominant from the mid-2000s to recent years. The climatological probability of monthly SPI values being severely dry is dominant mostly in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid central, south and east districts of the region. According to the M–K test, statistically significant decreasing trends were determined for annual total precipitation and the 12-month SPI series in Keskin, Pınarbaşı, Sarız, Ürgüp and Akşehir. Nonsignificant and statistically significant decreasing trends in spring precipitation were determined at approximately 67% of the stations and at Ilgaz, Kulu, Eskişehir, Keskin, Zara, Ürgüp and Sarız stations, respectively. With respect to the desertification in the Central Anatolia Region, the most vulnerable subregions for desertification processes are the Konya subregion and the Upper Kızılırmak subregion, mainly characterized by semi-arid and dry sub-humid environmental conditions.

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Data Availability

The data sets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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None.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the monthly precipitation time series data for this study.

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  1. Department of Geography, Niğde Ömer Halisdemir University, Niğde, Türkiye

    Türkan Bayer-Altın & Bekir Necati Altın

  2. Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğazici University, Istanbul, Türkiye

    Murat Türkeş

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  1. Türkan Bayer-Altın
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The author contributions are listed as follows: TBA and MT wrote the main manuscript text and prepared figures and tables. BN prepared the climate dataset. All authors have contributed equally to the manuscript.

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Bayer-Altın, T., Türkeş, M. & Altın, B.N. Evolution of Drought Climatology and Variability in the Central Anatolia Region, Turkey, for the Period 1970–2020. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 3105–3129 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03321-y

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