Abstract
The upstream atmospheric blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been recognized as one of the key sources for extreme temperatures and climate variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this study, their interplay with the pronounced temperature anomalies is examined from the perspective of upstream blocking and the positive NAO. To delineate this association, a two-dimensional blocking index and a cold wave detection method were used for their objective identification. The cold wave method uses spatiotemporally varying temperature threshold to identify cold snaps. The role of upper levels was elucidated by the analysis of time-mean and climatological anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height. It was noted that cold snaps were located on the downstream of the blocking ridge over the eastern Atlantic. For the study period (10–25 January 2022), warmer than average climate (1980–2009) conditions, with positive temperature anomalies which ranged from 1 °C to 5 °C, were experienced in western Europe while colder than average conditions, with negative temperature anomalies from − 6 °C to − 1 °C, took place in central and eastern Europe. The instantaneous blocking frequency was approximately 50–60% and the episode of large-scale blocking frequency was 60–75% over western Europe. The positive NAO phase persisted for two weeks. Cold waves lasted approximately 3–12 days in northern parts of Spain and 3–10 days in western of Türkiye. Analysis of this upstream blocking driven cold snaps provides insight into the origin of extreme temperatures and climate variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability statement
Meteorological data can be obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The North Atlantic Oscillation index used in this study can be obtained from: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii.
References
Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Lazoglou, G., & Maheras, P. (2017). The exceptionally cold january of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: A climatological and synoptic analysis. Atmosphere, 8, 252. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8120252
BBC, (2021). Polar vortex death toll rises to 21 as US cold snap continues. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47088684. Accessed 4 Mar 2022
BBC, (2022). Greece Snowstorm: Thousands of drivers left stranded as storm hits Athens. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60129827. Accessed 4 Mar 2022
Boettcher, M., Röthlisberger, M., Attinger, R., Rieder, J., & Wernli, H. (2023). The ERA5 extreme seasons explorer as a basis for research at the weather and climate interface. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104, E631–E644. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0348.1
Brunner, L., Hegerl, G. C., & Steiner, A. K. (2018). Connecting atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in Spring. Journal of Climate, 30, 585–594.
Castro-Díez, Y., Pozo-Vázquez, D., Rodrigo, F. S., Esteban-Parra, M.J. (2002). NAO and winter temperature variability in southern Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(8), 1160. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014042
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., et al. (2010). Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L20704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613
CNN, (2021). These US cities had the coldest morning in decades – with some reaching all-time record lows, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/16/us/record-cold-weather-us-trnd/index.html. Accessed 4 Mar 2022
CNN, (2022). Snow blankets Greece and Turkey as wild weather system creates rare ‘snownado’. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/25/weather/weather-climate-snowstorm-greece-Turkey-intl/index.html. Accessed 4 Mar 2022
Copernicus, (2022). Surface air temperature for January 2022, https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2022. Accessed 4 Mar 2022
D’errico, M., Yiou, P., Nardini, C., Lunkeit, F., Faranda, D. (2022). Warmer Mediterranean temperatures do not decrease snowy cold spell intensity over Italy. Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022
Demirtaş, M. (2017a). The large scale environment of the European 2012 high-impact cold wave: Prolonged upstream and downstream atmospheric blocking. Weather, 72(10), 297–301. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3020
Demirtaş, M. (2017b). High impact heat waves over the Euro-Mediterranean Region and Turkey - in concert with atmospheric blocking and large dynamical and physical anomalies. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, 18(1), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.18038/aubtda.300426
Demirtaş, M. (2018). The high-impact 2007 hot summer over Turkey: Atmospheric-blocking and heat-wave episodes. Meteorological Applications, 25(3), 406–413. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1708
Demirtaş, M. (2022a). The anomalously cold january 2017 in the South-Eastern Europe in a warming climate. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7574
Demirtaş, M. (2022b). The record breaking hot summer of 2017 in Southern Europe and Turkey: Underlying atmospheric conditions. International Journal of Global Warming, 28(2), 185–198. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.126063
Doss-Gollin, J., Farnham, D. J., Lall, U., & Modi, V. (2021). How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap? Environmental Research Letters, 16, 064056.
Drouard, M., Woollings, T., Sexton, D. M., & McSweeney, C. F. (2021). Dynamical differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD034082. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034082
ESA, (2022). Athens under snow. https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2022/01/Athens_under_snow. Accessed 23 Jan 2023.
Faranda, D. (2020). An attempt to explain recent trends in European snowfall extremes. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1(2), 445–458. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., et al. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
IHA, (2022). Antalya-Konya karayoluna çığ düştü, 3 metrelik kar kütleleri yolu kapladı. https://www.iha.com.tr/haber-antalya-konya-karayoluna-cig-dustu-3-metrelik-kar-kutleleri-yolu-kapladi-1020589/ Accessed 18 Jan 2023
Lenggenhager, S., & Martius, O. (2019). Atmospheric blocks modulate the odds of heavy precipitation events in Europe. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04779-0
Lillo, S. P., Cavallo, S. M., Parsons, D. B., & Riedel, C. (2021). The role of a tropopause polar vortex in the generation of the january 2019 extreme Arctic outbreak. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 78, 2801–2821.
NYT, (2022). Heavy snow strands motorists in Greece and Turkey. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/world/europe/greece-Turkey-snow.html Accessed 4 Mar 2022
Pfahl, S. (2014). Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 14, 1461–1475.
Pfahl, S., & Wernli, H. (2012). Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on (sub-)daily time scales. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261
Quandt, L. A., Keller, J. H., Martius, O., & Jones, S. C. (2017). Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer 2010 and its impact on surface conditions. Weather and Forecasting, 32, 61–82. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0065.1
Raymond, F., Ullmann, A., Camberlin, P., Oueslati, B., & Drobinski, P. (2018). Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin. Climate Dynamics, 50, 4437–4453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3884-6
Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Gupta, A. S., & Foltz, G. R. (2019). Common cause for severe droughts in South America and marine heatwaves in the South Atlantic. Nature Geoscience, 12, 620–626. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0393-8
Scherrer, S. C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., & Appenzeller, C. (2006). Two-dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic Region. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 233–250.
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., & Davies, H. C. (2004). Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L06125. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341
Shabbar, A., Huang, J. P., & Higuchi, K. (2001). The relationship between the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and blocking episodes in the North Atlantic Int. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 355–369.
Shutts, G. J. (1986). A case study of Eddy forcing during an Atlantic blocking episode. Advances in Geophysics, 29, 135–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60037-0
Sillmann, J., Croci-Maspoli, M., Kallache, M., et al. (2011). Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking. Journal of Climate, 24, 5899–5913.
Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K., Hoskins, B. J., & Shepherd, T. G. (2019). A dynamical perspective on atmospheric temperature variability and its response to climate change. Journal of Climate, 32, 1707–1724.
The NCAR Command Language (Version 6.6.2) [Software] (2019) Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5
Tibaldi, S., & Molteni, F. (1990). On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus A, 42, 343–365.
Tolika, K., Maheras, P., Pytharoulis, I., & Anagnostopoulou, C. (2014). The anomalous low and high temperatures of 2012 over Greece—An explanation from a meteorological and climatological perspective. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 14, 501–507. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-501-2014
Watchers, (2022). Rare blizzard traps thousands of vehicles on a major highway in southern Turkey, https://watchers.news/2022/01/20/rare-snow-blizzard-gaziantep-Turkey-january-2022/. Accessed 24 Jan 2023
Webber, C. P., Dacre, H. F., Collins, W. J., & Masato, G. (2017). The dynamical impact of Rossby wave breaking upon UK PM10 concentration. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 867–881. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017
Woollings, T. (2010). Dynamical influences on European climate: An uncertain future. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368, 3733–3756. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0040
Acknowledgements
The plots were generated using National Center for Atmospheric Research Command Language (2019).
Funding
No funds, grants, or other support was received.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Meral Demirtaş performed research, methodology, figures, formal analysis and investigation, writing, revising and editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The author has no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Demirtaş, M. The Cold Snaps of January 2022 in the Euro-Mediterranean Region in a Warming Climate: In Association with Atmospheric Blocking and the Positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 2889–2900 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03297-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03297-9