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Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Lebanese Restraining Bend: A Neo-deterministic Approach

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Abstract

The Lebanese Restraining Bend is an active bend along the Dead Sea Transform Fault in the eastern Mediterranean region where several destructive earthquakes have occurred throughout history. In this paper, we assess the gross features of the seismic hazard of the Lebanese Restraining Bend by applying a neo-deterministic method that involves the generation of synthetic seismograms distributed on a regular grid over the study area. We use the regional seismicity, seismic source zones, focal mechanism solutions, and velocity structural models. We present maps of ground displacement, velocity, and acceleration. This is the first study that generates neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps for the Lebanese Restraining Bend using representative ground motion modeling. Our results show that displacement values of 15–30 cm and velocity values of 30–60 cm/s can be expected along most of Lebanon. In addition, 0.15–0.30 g acceleration values can dominate most of the Lebanese territory and surrounding areas. It is evident from these results that the study area in general and Lebanon in particular constitute a high seismic hazard area, which necessitates further attention from the authorities regarding the precaution measures needed to mitigate the effects of potential catastrophic seismic events; in addition, more detailed investigations are needed at local scale for specific sites of interest.

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Modified from Costa et al. (1993)

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Modified from Costa et al. (1993)

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by a seed grant from the American University of Beirut and by the APAME EC project (ICA3-CT-2002-10024). G. Panza is thanked for his constructive feedback throughout the process of our modeling. M. Brax and the Lebanese National Center for Geophysics are thanked for their cooperation in compiling the seismicity catalogue. A. Ezz Al Dine is thanked for his assistance in the map digitization process. The Editor and reviewers are thanked for their helpful reviews and suggestions that improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, American University of Beirut, Riad El-Solh, P.O.Box 11-0236, Beirut, 1107 2020, Lebanon

    Tony S. Nemer

  2. Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze, Università di Trieste, Via Weiss, 4, 34128, Trieste, Italy

    Franco Vaccari

  3. Institut de Physique du Globe (CNRS - UMR 7516), EOST - Université de Strasbourg, 5, rue René Descartes, 67084, Strasbourg Cedex, France

    Mustapha Meghraoui

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TN: conceptualization, validation, formal analysis, investigation, resources, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing, visualization, project administration, funding acquisition. FV: methodology, software, resources, data curation. MM: conceptualization, resources, supervision, funding acquisition.

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Correspondence to Tony S. Nemer.

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Nemer, T.S., Vaccari, F. & Meghraoui, M. Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Lebanese Restraining Bend: A Neo-deterministic Approach. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 1835–1859 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03233-x

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