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Possible Seismic Source Mechanism of the Catastrophic Tsunamigenic Earthquake on May 9, 1877 in Northwestern Chile

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Abstract

Large-magnitude earthquakes in northern Chile and southern Peru occur every 108 years on average. It should be noted that over 143 years since the catastrophic earthquake of May 9, 1877, any similar events were completely absent. In 2007, a 7.7 Mw earthquake occurred near Tocopilla, and in 2014 a catastrophic M = 8.1 earthquake hit Pisagua. It is believed that only part of the energy accumulated over 143 years has been released during those events, while most of it is yet to be released. Thus, we can conclude that a serious tsunami hazard exists for all coastal cities of southern Peru and northern Chile. In this paper, on the basis of the available historical data and geodynamic studies, numerical simulation of the historical catastrophic earthquake and tsunami of May 9, 1877 is carried out assuming the blockwise earthquake source configurations. We implemented 23 simulation scenarios for different kinematic behavior patterns of such a source, sequentially updating the source fragmentation to reduce the misfit between the simulated and observed wave height data. Using the proposed methodology, for each scenario, the generation of a tsunami source is simulated and the computation of wave fields up to the 5-m isobath is carried out. The results obtained are compared with historical data. Analysis of the entire set of simulated earthquake scenarios makes it possible to choose a tsunamigenic earthquake scenario with the most adequate characteristics of tsunami waves in the coastal zone.

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Funding

This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 20-17-00140.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, 36, Nakhimovsky Ave., Moscow, 117997, Russia

    L. I. Lobkovsky & D. A. Alekseev

  2. Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), Institutsky Lane, 9, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, 141701, Russia

    L. I. Lobkovsky, R. Kh. Mazova & D. A. Alekseev

  3. R.E. Alekseev Nizhny, Novgorod State Technical University, 24, Minin str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603095, Russia

    R. Kh. Mazova

  4. Auriga, 6/6 Nartova st., office 829, Nizhny Novgorod, 603104, Russia

    N. A. Baranova

  5. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS, 10, Bol. Gruzinskaya str., Moscow, 917435, Russia

    D. A. Alekseev

  6. Faculty of Engineering, Engineering Center for Mitigation of Natural Catastrophes, University of Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile

    F. Jorge Van Den Bosch & A. Gustavo Oses

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  1. L. I. Lobkovsky
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Lobkovsky, L.I., Mazova, R.K., Baranova, N.A. et al. Possible Seismic Source Mechanism of the Catastrophic Tsunamigenic Earthquake on May 9, 1877 in Northwestern Chile. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 1695–1715 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03149-y

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