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From Earthquake Prediction Research to Time-Variable Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications

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Abstract

The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with test regions in California, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, and the Western Pacific. Algorithms and data bases are operated in a permanently learning and upgrading mode. Future perspectives and research requirements and the feasibility and possible problems encountered with the implementation of earthquake predictions in practice are briefly summarized.

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Notes

  1. According to Kossobokov (2005) M0+ indicates the magnitude range M0 + ΔM with 0.5 ≤ ΔM < 1. Usually, ΔM is around 0.7, which roughly corresponds to doubling of the rupture length. For applications in Italy, however, ΔM = 0.5 has been chosen; see Peresan et al., 2009, this volume.

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Acknowledgments

This paper has developed and grown over the years on the basis of information compiled for and discussed with participants in the International Potsdam Training Courses on Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment. The author owes thanks to Professor Jochen Zschau of the GFZ for many inspiring discussions. Moreover, the final version, covering some of the latest developments and applications especially in China, Italy, Russia, and the USA, would not have been possible without some enlightening recent presentations and publications by Professors Wu Zhongliang of China, Vladimir Kossobokov and Alexey Zavyalov of Russia, Giuliano Panza of Italy, and Thomas H. Jordan of the USA, in some cases also complemented by a very fruitful exchange of letters. I am very much obliged to Professor Kossobokov and another anonymous reviewer for their outstandingly constructive criticism and many specific proposals how and where the original draft could be improved and missing references be added.

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    Peter Bormann

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Bormann, P. From Earthquake Prediction Research to Time-Variable Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications. Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 329–366 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0114-0

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