Abstract
This article increases our knowledge of Mozambique's demography by assessing the nature and magnitude of fertility decline, using the 1980 and 1997 censuses and the 1997 Demographic and Health Survey. Several robust methods, including P/F ratios from census and birth history data, the own-children procedure (census data), and estimates of censored parity progression ratios (adjusted for truncation bias) are used to identify fertility trends. Regional differences in fertility trends are discussed in the light of the proximate determinants of fertility. Fertility decline has started in Mozambique but the magnitude of the decline differs among the three administrative regions in the country. In Southern Region the fertility decline is well established, while in Northern and Central regions the decline is still incipient.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agadjanian, Victor. 1995. Fertility and society in Maputo, Mozambique. Ph.D thesis, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
Agadjanian, Victor and Ndola Prata. 2001. War and reproduction: Angola's fertility in comparative perspective.Journal of Southern African Studies 27(2): 329–347.
Agadjanian, Victor and Ndola Prata. 2002. War, peace, and fertility in Angola.Demography 39(2): 215–231.
Arnaldo, Carlos. 1996. Comércio informal e ocupação da força de trabalho no Bairro da Malanga. Honours thesis, Departamento de Geografia, Faculdade de Letras, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo.
Arnaldo, Carlos. 2002. Ethnicity and marriage patterns in Mozambique. Paper presented at the 15th International Sociological Association World Congress of Sociology, Brisbane, 7–13 July.
Arnaldo, Carlos. 2003. Fertility and its proximate determinants in Mozambique: an analysis of levels, trends, differentials and regional variation. Ph.D thesis, Demography and Sociology Program, Australian National University, Canberra.
Bongaarts, John and Robert G. Potter. 1983.Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants. New York: Academic Press.
Brass, William. 1981. The use of the Gompertz Relational Model to estimate fertility. Pp. 345–362 inInternational Population Conference, Vol. 3. Manila: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
Brass, William and Fatima Juarez. 1983. Censored cohort parity progression ratios from birth histories.Asian and Pacific Census Forum 10(1): 5–13.
Brass, William, Fatima Juarez and Anne Scott. 1995. An analysis of parity dependent fertility rates in Tropical Africa. Pp. 1–18 inThe John C. Caldwell Seminar: The Continuing Demographic Transition. Canberra: Australian National University.
Caldwell, John C. and Pat Caldwell. 1993. The South African fertility decline.Population and Development Review 19(2): 225–262.
Caldwell, John C. and Pat Caldwell. 2001. Regional paths to fertility transition.Journal of Population Research 18(2): 91–117.
Caldwell, John C., I.O. Orubuloye and Pat Caldwell. 1992. Fertility decline in Africa: a new type of transition?Population and Development Review 18(2): 211–242.
Conselho Coordenador do Recenseamento (CCR). 1983.Panorama Demográfico. Volume 2. Maputo: Direcção Nacional de Estatística.
Cho, L., R.D. Retherford and M.K. Choe. 1986.The Own-Children Method of Fertility Estimation. Honolulu: East-West Center Population Institute.
Cleland, John and Christopher Wilson. 1987. Demand theories of the fertility transition: an iconoclastic view.Population Studies 41(1): 5–30.
Coale, Ansley J. and P. Demeny. 1983.Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. New York: Academic Press.
Cohen, Barney. 1993. Fertility levels, differentials, and trends. Pp. 8–67 in K. A. Foote, K. H. Hill and L. G. Martin (eds),Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: National Research Council.
Cohen, Barney. 1998. The emerging fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.World Development 26(8): 1431–1461.
Collumbien, M., I.M. Timæus and L. Acharya. 1997.The Onset of Fertility Decline in Nepal: A Reinterpretation. Centre for Population Studies Research Paper, 97-2. London: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Eloundou-Enyegue, P.M., C.S. Stokes and G.T. Cornwell. 2000. Are there crisis-led fertility declines? Evidence from central Cameroon.Population Research and Policy Review 19(1): 47–72.
Feeney, Griffith. 1988. The use of parity progression models in evaluating family planning programmes. Pp. 7.1.17–7.1.30, inAfrican Population Conference, Vol. 3. Dakar: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
Frank, Odile and John Bongaarts. 1991. Behavioral and biological determinants of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.Statistics in Medicine 10(2): 161–175.
Gaspar, Manuel da Costa. 1989. Contribuições para o estudo da dinámica demográfica de Moçambique. Master's dissertation in Demography, Centro de Planejamento e Desenvolvimento Regional, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte.
Gaspar, Manuel da Costa, Humberto A. Cossa, Clara Ribeiro dos Santos, Rosa Marlene Manjate and Juan Schoemaker. 1998.Moçambique, Inquérito Demográfico e de Saúde 1997. Calverton MD: Macro International Inc.
Gaspar, Manuel da Costa and Jorge Bardalez Ruiz. 1994.Moçambique: Componentes da Dinâmica Demográfica, IDN 1991. Maputo: Direcção Nacional de Estatística.
Government of Mozambique and UNICEF. 1993.The Situation of Children and Women in Mozambique —1993. Maputo: National Planning Commission, Ministry of Cooperation.
Hajnal, John. 1953. Age at marriage and proportions marrying.Population Studies 7(2): 111–136.
Hinde, A. and A.J. Mturi. 2000. Recent trends in Tanzanian fertility.Population Studies 54(2): 177–191.
Hobcraft, J.N., N. Goldman and V.C. Chidambaram. 1982. Advances in the P/F ratio method for the analysis of birth histories.Population Studies 36(2): 291–316.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). 1998a.Inquérito Nacional aos Agregados Familiares Sobre Condições de Vida — 1996–1997: Relatório Final. Maputo.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). 1998b.Monografia Nacional. Rascunho. Maputo.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). 1999a.Recenseamentos Realisados no Periodo Colonial (1928 a 1970). Maputo: Direcção de Censos e Inquéritos.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) 1999b.Projecções Anuais da População Total 1997–2020. Moçambique. Maputo.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). n.d.Estimativa das Taxas Glogais de Fecundidade por Províncias para os Anos 2003 e 2010. Maputo.
Ivens-Ferraz de Freitas, Romeu. 1971.O Grupo Sena. Lourenço Marques: Gabinete Provincial de Acção Psicológica.
Junod, H.A. 1974.Usos e Costumes dos Bantos: A Vida de uma Tribo do Sul de Africa. Vol. 1. Lourenço Marques: Imprensa Nacional de Moçambique.
Kalipeni, E. 1995. The fertility transition in Africa.Geographical Review 85(3): 286–300.
Kinfu, Yohannes. 2000. Below-replacement fertility in Tropical Africa? Some evidence from Addis Ababa.Journal of Population Research 17(1): 63–82.
Kirk, D. and B. Pillet. 1998. Fertility levels, trends, and differentials in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s and 1990s.Studies in Family Planning 29(1): 1–22.
Lee, R. 1990. The demographic response to economic crisis in historical and contemporary populations.Population Bulletin of the United Nations 29: 1–15.
Lindstrom, D. and B. Berhanu. 1999. The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in Ethiopia.Demography 36(2): 247–261.
Lopes, Leonel and Clara Santos. 1995a.Aspectos Demográficos e de Saúde Materno-Infantil na Cidade de Maputo: Análise dos Dados de Inquérito de Julho de 1994. Maputo: Centro de Estudos de População.
Lopes, Leonel and Clara Santos. 1995b.Aspectos Demográficos e de Saúde Materno-Infantil nas Areas Rurais das Provincias de Inhambane e Gaza: Análise dos Dados do Inquérito de Janeiro de 1995. Maputo: Centro de Estudos de População.
Lopes, Leonel and Clara Santos. 1996.Inquérito Demográfico de Saúde e de Aspectos Socio-economicos da Família na Cidade e Distrito de Nampula. Maputo: Centro de Estudos de População.
Luther, Norman Y. and Chintana Pejaranonda. 1991. The parity structure of fertility decline in Thailand, 1953–1979.Genus 47(1–2): 63–88.
Martinez, Francisco L. 1989.O Povo Macua e a Sua Cultura. Lisboa: Instituto de Investigação Científica Tropical.
Mazive, Elísio S. 1999. Fecundidad differencial intra-urbana: el caso de la ciudad de Maputo. Diploma thesis, Universidad de Chile, Santiago de Chile.
McCharen, N. and C. Mondlane. 1999.Baseline Assessment Conducted in Mabalane and Guija Districts Gaza Province, Mozambique September 14–24. Maputo: Family Planning Service Expansion and Technical Support.
Ministry of Planning and Finance. 1998.Understanding Poverty and Well-Being in Mozambique: The First National Assessment (1996–97). Maputo.
Monreal, Tegualda. 1991.Inquérito Comportamento Reproductivo da Mulher Moçambicana 1987. Maputo: Ministério da Saúde, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane and United Nations Fund for Population Activities.
Mozambique. 1998.Mozambique, National Human Development Report 1998. Maputo: United Nations Development Programme.
Mozambique. 1999.Mozambique, National Human Development Report 1999. Maputo: United Nations Development Programme.
Mturi, Akim J. and P.R. Andrew Hinde. 1994. Fertility decline in Tanzania.Journal of Biosocial Science 26(4): 529–538.
Muhwava, William. 2002. The onset of fertility transition in Zimbabwe: a re-analysis of census and survey data using robust demographic techniques.African Population Studies 17(1): 1–17.
National Research Council. 1993.Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: National Academic Press.
Palloni, A., K. Hill and G.P. Aguirre. 1996. Economic swings and demographic changes in the history of Latin America.Population Studies 50(1): 105–132.
Population Services International (PSI)-Mozambique. 1998.National AIDS Prevention Survey of Mozambican Sexual Behaviors and Condom Use: Final Report. Maputo.
Retherford, Robert D., C. Pejaranonda, L. Cho, A. Chamratrithirong and F. Arnold. 1979.Own-children Estimates of Fertility for Thailand Based on the 1970 Census. Honolulu: East-West Center.
Rodriguez, G. and I.N. Hobcraft. 1980. Illustrative analysis: life table analysis of birth interval in Colombia.World Fertility Survey Scientific Reports No. 16. London: International Statistical Institute.
Segall, Malcolm. 1977. Health and national liberation in the People's Republic of Mozambique.International Journal of Health Services 7(2): 319–325.
United Nations. 1981.National Experience in the Formulation and Implementation of Population Policy, 1960–1980: Mozambique. New York.
United Nations. 1983.Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. New York.
Watkins, S.C. 1990. From local to national communities: the transformation of demographic regimes in Western Europe, 1870–1960.Population and Development Review 16(2): 241–272.
Watkins, S.C. 1991.From Provinces into Nations: Demographic Integration in Western Europe, 1870–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
World Bank. 2000.World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty. Washington DC.
Zaba, B. 1981.Use of the Relational Gompertz Model in Analysing Fertility Data Collected in Retrospective Surveys. Centre for Population Studies Working Paper No. 81-2. London: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Arnaldo, C. Regional fertility trends in Mozambique. Journal of Population Research 21, 177–197 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031897
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031897