Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Application of pattern recognition algorithm in the seismic belts of Indian convergent plate margins — M8 algorithm

  • Published:
Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences - Earth and Planetary Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The seismicity associated with the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, from 1964 to August 1990 was scanned using the M8 algorithm with a view to identify the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the earthquakes of magnitudes greater or equal to 6·4 that occurred during the period from 1970 to August 1990. 23 out of 28 earthquakes (M ⩾ 6·4) have been predicted. These were preceded by specific activation of the earthquake flow which was picked up by the M8 algorithm. The earthquake of August 1988 in the Himalaya could not be predicted, the other four unpredictable earthquakes occurred in the early dates of the catalogue (1970–1971) and hence their TIPs could not be diagnosed. Two current alarms are diagnosed, one in the Indo-Burmese arc and the other in the Hindukush-Pamir region.

The algorithm provides the correlation between the earthquakes and their area of activation (both in time as well as in space) which, when compared with the local geology, may help to comment on the present day status of the seismic features on the surface.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bhatia S C, Chalam S V, Gaur V K, Keilis-Borok V I and Kosobokov V G 1989 On intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the Himalayan arc region using pattern recognition algorithm M8;Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet. Sci.) 98 111–123

    Google Scholar 

  • Gabrielov A M, Dimitrieva O E, Keilis-Borok V I, Kosobokov V G, Kuznetsov I V, Levshina T A, Mizroev K M, Molchan G M, Negamatullaew S Kh, Pisarenko V F, Prozorov A G, Rinehart W, Rotwain I M, Shebalin P N, Shnirman M G and Schreider S Yu 1986Algorithms of long-term earthquakes prediction. International School for research oriented to Earthquake Prediction Algorithms, Software and data handling (Lima, Peru, September, 1986).

  • Keilis-Borok V I, Knopoff L, Rotwain I M and Sidorenko T M 1980 Bursts of seismicity as long-term precursors of strong earthquakes;J. Geophys. Res. 85 803–811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok V I and Kosobokov V G 1986 Time of increased probability for the great earthquakes of the world;Comput. Seismol. 19 48–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok V I and Kosobokov V G 1990 Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: Algorithm M8;Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61 73–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tapponier P and Molnar P 1977 Active faulting and tectonics in China;J. Geophys. Res. 82 2905–2930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World’s hypocenters data file 1900–1991, USGS-NEIC, USA, 1990

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Earth, Environmental and Marine Sciences (HEM), P.O. Box. 586, 34100, Trieste, Italy

    V K Gahalaut, I V Kuznetsov, V G Kosobokov, A M Gabrielov & V I Keilis-Borok

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Roorkee, 247 667, Roorkee, U.P., India

    V K Gahalaut

  3. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Warshavskoye sh. 79, K.2, 113 556, Moscow, U.S.S.R.

    I V Kuznetsov, V G Kosobokov, A M Gabrielov & V I Keilis-Borok

Authors
  1. V K Gahalaut
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. I V Kuznetsov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. V G Kosobokov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A M Gabrielov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. V I Keilis-Borok
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gahalaut, V.K., Kuznetsov, I.V., Kosobokov, V.G. et al. Application of pattern recognition algorithm in the seismic belts of Indian convergent plate margins — M8 algorithm. Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet Sci.) 101, 239–254 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02878135

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02878135

Keywords

Search

Navigation