Economic development and population

Conclusion

Neo-Malthusian analysis that high and increasing population density hinders economic development and results in poverty has been demonstrated to be false. The two major structural variables negatively associated with rate of population increase are wealth and socialism, and the major determinants of economic growth are level of economic development and economic organization.

If our analysis is correct the various campaigns supported by AID, the major U.S. foundations and other groups to discourage population growth in Third World countries in order to increase their rate of economic growth are misguided. Every baby born is not only a new mouth to feed, but also within a few years two more hands to work. There are great potentialities for economic growth in the Third World that await only the proper economic organization to be realized. That is, if the two hands are used efficiently, they will more than feed themselves.

Attempts to reduce the birth rate by propaganda and making contraceptives readily available, ignore the structural causes of high fertility and so are not likely to succeed in reducing the birth rate. Our data suggest that only when the structural causes of high fertility—the poverty and economic insecurity associated with capitalism—are removed is the birth rate likely to fall significantly.