Skip to main content
Log in

Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems

  • Special Section
  • Published:
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the area of sales forecasting and decision support systems: methodological issues and implementational issues. This paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Armstrong, J. Scott. 1985.Long-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1987. “The Forecasting Audit.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. ed. Spyros Madridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • —, Roderick J. Brodie, and Shelby H. McIntyre. 1987. “Forecasting Methods for Marketing Review of Empirical Research.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 355–376.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashton, Alison Hubbard and Robert H. Ashton. 1985. “Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results.”Management Science 31 (December): 1499–1508.

    Google Scholar 

  • Assmus, Gert. 1984. “New Product Forecasting.”Journal of Forecasting 3: 121–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bass, Frank M. 1987. “Misspecification and the Inherent Randomness of the Model are at the Heart of the Brodie and de Kluyver enigma.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 441–444.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berkowitz, M. K. and G. H. Haines, Jr. 1984. “Forecasting Future Canadian Residential Heating Demand: An Illustration of Forecasting with Aggregated and Disaggregated Data.”Journal of Forecasting 3: 217–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bopp, Anthony E. 1985. “On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results.”Management Science 31 (December): 1492–1498.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brodie, Roderick J. and C. A. de Kluyver. 1984. “Attraction Versus Linear and Multiplicative Market Share Models: An Empirical Evaluation.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (May): 194–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1987. “A Comparison of the Short Term Forecasting Accuracy of Econometric and Naive Extrapolation Models of Market Share.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 423–437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cattin, Philippe and D. R. Wittink. 1982. “Commercial use of conjoint analysis: A survey. Journal of Marketing 46: 44–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Currim, Imran S. and Rakesh K. Sarin. 1983. “A Procedure for Measuring and Estimating Consumer Preferences Under Uncertainty.”Journal of Marketing Research 20 (August): 249–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dalrymple, Douglas J. 1975. “Sales forecasting methods and accuracy.”Business Horizons 18: 33–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1987, “Sales Forecasting Practices Results from a United States Survey.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 379–391.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, Timothy A. and Laurence Prusak. 1987. “Selecting and Using Extermal Data Sources and Forecasting Services to support a Forecasting Strategy.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting A Manager’s Guide Second Edition, Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dino, Richard N. 1987. “Price Forecasting Using Experience Curves and The Product Life-Cycle Concept.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Enns, Phillip, Joseph Machak and W. Spivey. 1982. “Forecasting Applications of an Adaptive Multiple Exponential Smoothing Model.”Management Science 28 (September): 1035–1044.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faruqui, Ahmad. 1987. “Preface-On the Search for Accuracy in Electric Utility Forecasting.”Journal of Forecasting 6: 93–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fildes, Robert. 1987. “Forecasting: The Issues.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischler, Edward B. and Robert F. Nelson. 1986. “Integrating Time-Series and End-use Methods to Forecast Electricity Sales.”Journal of Forecasting 5: 15–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flores, Benito and Edna White. 1988. “A Framework for the Combination of Forecasts.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.

  • Geurts, Michael. 1988. “The Impact of Misrepresentative Data Patterns on Sales Forecasting Accuracy.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.

  • — and J. Patrick Kelly. 1986. “Forecasting retail sales using alternative models.”International Journal of Foreasting 2 (3): 257–395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh, A., S. Neslin and R. Shoemaker. 1984. “A Comparison of Market Share Models and Estimation Procedures.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (May): 202–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goslar, Martin D. and Stephen W. Brown. 1986. “Decision Support Systems: Advantages in Consumer Marketing Settings.”Journal of Consumer Marketing 3 (Summer): 43–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, Paul E. and D.S. Tull. 1978.Research for Marketing Decisions Fourth Edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagerty, Michael R. 1987. “Conditions under which Econometric Models will Outperform Naive Models.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 457–460.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanssens, Dominique M. 1980. “Market Response, Competitive Behavior, and Time Series Analysis.”Journal of Marketing Research 17 (November): 470–85.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hogarth, Robin M. and S. Makridakis. 1981. “Forecasting and planning: An evaluation.”Management Science 27: 115–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, David G. 1987. “Sales Forecasting Requirements.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jobber, David and Martin Watts. 1986. “Behavioral Aspects of Marketing Information Systems.”OMEGA International Journal of Management Science 14 (1): 69–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kapoor, S.G., P. Madhok and S.M. Wu 1981. “Modeling and Forecasting Sales Data by Time Series Analysis.”Journal of Marketing Research 18 (February): 94–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koehler, Anne B. 1985. “Simple vs Complex Extrapolation Models: An Evaluation in the Food Processing Industry.”International Journal of Forecasting 1: 63–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larreche, Jean-Claude. 1987. “Anticipatory Analysis for New Entry Strategies.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence, M.J. 1983. “An Exploration of Some Practical Issues in the Use of Quantitative Forecasting Models.”Journal of Forecasting 22: 169–179.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, R.H. Edmundson and M.J. O’Connor. 1986. The Accuracy of Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts.”Management Science 32 (December): 1521–1532.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leeflang, P.S.H. and Reuyl, J.C. 1984. “Further Study and Comments on the Predictive Power of Market Share Attraction Models.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (May): 221–5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leone, Robert P. 1987. “Forecasting the Effect of an Environmental Change On Market Performance An Intervention Time-Series Approach.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 463–478.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levenbach, Hans and James P. Cleary 1984.The Modern Forecaster The Forecasting Process Through Data Analysis. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewandowski, Rudolf. 1982. “Sales Forecasting by FORSYS”Journal of Forecasting 1: 205–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 1987. “An Integrated Approach to Medium-and Long-term Forecasting: The Marketing-Mix System.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mabert, Vincent A. and Michael J. Showalter. 1987. “Forecasting for Service Products: Concepts and Systems.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahmoud, E. 1984. “Accuracy in Forecasting: A Survey.Journal of Forecasting 3 (April–June): 139–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — and Naresh Malhotra. 1986. “The Decision-Making Process of Small Business for Microcomputers and Software Selection and Usage.”INFOR Information Systems and Operational Research 24 (May): 116–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makridakis Spyros. 1987. “The Future of Forecasting.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • —, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, and R. Winkler. 1982, “The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods.”Journal of Forecasting 1 (April–June): 111–154.

    Google Scholar 

  • —, and R.L. Winkler. 1983. “Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results.”Management Science 29: 987–996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mentzer, John T. 1988. “Forecasting with Adaptive Extended Exponential Smoothing.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.

  • — and J.E. Cox, Jr. 1984. “Familiarity, Application, and Performance of Sales Forecasting Techniques.”Journal of Forecasting 3 (January–March): 27–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, Don M. 1985. “The Anatomy of a Successful Forecasting Implementation.”International Journal of Forecasting 1: 69–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moriarty, Mark M. 1985. “Design Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments.”Journal of Marketing Research 12 (November): 353–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — and Arthur J. Adams. 1984. “Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (August): 239–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullick, Satindes K., Gregory S. Anderson, Robert E. Leach and Ward C. Smith. 1987. “Life-Cycle Forecasting.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naert, Philippe and M. Weverbergh. 1981. “On the Prediction Power of Market Share Attraction Models.”Journal of Marketing Research 18 (May): 146–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1985. “Market Share Specification, Estimation, and Validation: Toward Reconciling Seemingly Divergent Views.”Journal of Marketing Research 12 (November): 453–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Restall, Christine. 1987. “Leisure Futures: A Summary of a Recent Study Commissioned by McCann-Erickson Ltd. from the Naisbitt Group.”Journal of Marketing Management 3: 1–11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rice, Gillian and Essam Mahmoud. 1984. “Forecasting and Data Bases in International Business.”Management International Review 24(4): 59–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schnaars, Steven P. 1984. “Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (August): 290–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — and Martin T. Topol. 1987. “The Use of Multiple Scenarios in Sales Forecasting: An Empirical Test.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 405–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shipchandler, Zoher E. and James S. Moore. 1988. “Examining the Effects of Regression Procedures on the Temporal Stability of Parameter Estimates in Marketing Models.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.

  • Schultz, Randall L. 1984. “The Implementation of Forecasting Models.”Journal of Forecasting 3: 43–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sparkes, J.R. and A.K. McHugh. 1984. “Awareness and Use of Forecasting Techniques in British Industry.”Journal of Forecasting 3 (January–March): 37–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyebjee, Tyzoon T. 1987. “Behavioral Biases in New Product Forecasting.”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 393–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Umashankar, Sushila and Johannes Ledolter. 1983. “Forecasting with Diagonal Multiple Time Series Models: An Extension of Univariate Models.”Journal of Marketing Research 20 (February): 58–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weinstein, David 1987. “Forecasting for Industrial Products.” InThe Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager’s Guide Second Edition. Ed. Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Winkler, Robert L. 1984. “Combining Forecasts.” InThe Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods. ed. S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wittink, Dick R. 1987. “Causal Market Share Models in Marketing: Neither Forecasting nor Understanding?”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 445–448.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright, David J. 1988. “Decision Support Oriented Sales Forecasting Methods.”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, this issue.

  • —, G. Capon, R. Page, J. Quiroga, A.A. Taseen, and F. Tomasini. 1986. “Evaluation of Forecasting Methods for Decision Support,”International Journal of Forecasting 2: 139–152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yokum, J. Thomas, Jr. and Albert R. Wildt. 1987. “Forecasting Sales Response for Multiple Time Horizons and Temporally Aggregated Data A Comparison of Constant and Stochastic Coefficient Models,”International Journal of Forecasting 3: 479–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mahmoud, E., Rice, G. & Malhotra, N. Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems. JAMS 16, 47–61 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02723360

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02723360

Keywords

Navigation