Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Solar origin of geomagnetic storms and prediction of storms with the use of neural networks

  • Published:
Surveys in Geophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This review deals with how the changes of the large-scale solar magnetic fields are related to the occurrence of solar phenomena, which are associated with geomagnetic storms. The review also describes how artificial neural networks have been used to forecast geomagnetic storms either from daily solar input data or from hourly solar wind data. With solar data as input predictions 1–3 days or a month in advance are possible, while using solar wind data as input predictions about an hour in advance are possible. The predictions one hour ahead of the geomagnetic storm indexD st from only solar wind input data have reached such high accuracy, that they are of practical use in combination with real-time solar wind observations at L1. However, the predictions days and a month ahead need to be much improved in order to be of real practical use.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baker, D. N.: 1986, ‘Statistical Analysis in the Study of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling’, in Y. Kamida and J. A. Slavin (eds.),Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, 17, Terra Scientific Publishing, pp. 17–38.

  • Baumjohann, W. and Haerendel, G.: 1987, ‘Entry and Dissipation of Energy in the Earth's Magnetosphere’,Space Astronomy and Solar System Exploration, Proceedings of summer school held at Alpach, Austria, July 29–August 8, 1986, ESA SP-268 May, pp. 121–130.

  • Dahlburg, R. B. and Antiochas, S. K.: 1995, ‘Reconnection of Antiparallel Magnetic Flux Tubes’,J. Geophys. Res. 100, 16,991–16,998.

    Google Scholar 

  • Detman, T.: 1994, ‘Ring Current Predictions and Physics from Neural Networks’,Eos Transactions, AGU, 1994 Fall Meeting,75, No. 44 November 1, 1994, Supplement.

  • Elman, J. L.: 1990, ‘Finding Structure in Time’,Cognitive Science 14, 179–211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farrugia, C. J., Freeman, M. P., Burlaga, R. P., Lepping, R. P., and Takahashi, K.: 1993, ‘The Earth's Magnetosphere Under Continued Forcing: Substorms Activity During the Passage of an Interplanetary Magnetic Cloud’,J. Geophys. Res. 98, 7657–7671.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freeman, J., Nagai, A., Reiff, P., Denig, W., Gussenhoven-Shea, S., Heinemann, M., Rich, F., and Hairston, M.: 1993, ‘The Use of Neural Networks to Predict Magnetospheric Parameters for Input to a Magnetospheric Forecast Model’, in J. A. Joselyn, H. Lundstedt and J. Trollinger (eds.),Proceedings of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics Workshop, Lund, Sweden, September 22–24, 1993, pp. 167–181.

  • Gleisner, H., Lundstedt, H., Wintoft, P., and Wu, J.-G.: 1995, ‘Dst Index Prediction from Solar Wind Data Using Time-Delay Feed-Forward Neural Networks’, presented at XXI General Assembly, IUGG, Boulder, Colorado, July 2–14, 1995,in IAGA Program and Abstract, p. B129.

  • Gosling, J. T., McComas, D. J., Phillips, J. L., and Bame, S. J.: 1991, ‘Geomagnetic Activity Associated with Earth Passage of Interplanetary Shock Disturbances and Coronal Mass Ejections’,J. Geophys. Res. 96, 7831–7839.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalez, W. D., Joselyn, J. A., Kamide, Y., Kroehl, H. W., Rostocker, G., Tsurutani, B. T., and Vasyliunas, V. M.: 1994, ‘What is a Geomagnetic Storm?’,J. Geophys. Res. 99, 5771–5792.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gothaskar, P. and Khobragade, S.: 1993, ‘Classification of Interplanetary Scintillation Power Spectra Using Artificial Neural Network’, in J. A. Joselyn, H. Lundstedt and J. Trollinger (eds.),Proceedings of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics Workshop in Lund, Sweden, September 22–24, 1993, pp. 109–114.

  • Hertz, J. K., Krogh, A., and Palmer, R. G.: 1991, ‘Introduction to the Theory of Neural Computation’,A Lecture Notes Volume in the Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Addison-Wesley.

  • Hoeksema, T. J.: 1984, ‘Structure and Evolution of the Large Scale Solar Heliospheric Magnetic Fields’, Ph.D dissertation, Stanford University.

  • Hoeksema, T. J.: 1991, ‘Large-Scale Solar and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields’,Adv. Space Res. 11(1), 15–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoeksema, T. J.: 1993, ‘Solar Inputs to Solar-Terrestrial Prediction from Wilcox Solar Observatory’, inProceedings of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics Workshop, in J. A. Joselyn, H. Lundstedt and J. Trollinger (eds.), Lund, Sweden, September 22–24, 1993, pp. 115–120.

  • Hundhausen, A. J.: 1993, ‘Sizes and Locations of Coronal Mass Ejections: SMM Observations from 1980 and 1984–1989’,J. Geophys. Res. 98, 13,177–13,200

    Google Scholar 

  • Joselyn, J.: 1995, ‘Geomagnetic Activity Forecasting: The State of the Art’,Reviews of Geophys. 33(3), 383–401.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein, L. W. and Burlaga, L. F.: 1982, ‘Magnetic Clouds at 1 AU’,J. Geophys. Res. 87, 613–624.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohonen, T.: 1984, ‘Self-Organization and Associative Memory’,Springer Series in Information Science, Springer-Verlag.

  • Lindsay, G. M., Russell, C. T., and Luhmann, J. G.: 1995, ‘Coronal Mass Ejections and Stream Interaction Region Characteristics and their Potential Geomagnetic Effectiveness’,J. Geophys. Res. 100, 16,999–17,013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorentz, G. G.: 1976, ‘The 13th Problem of Hilbert, inMathematical Developments Arising from Hilberts Problem, America Mathematical Society, Province, RL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundstedt, H.: 1990, ‘An Inductive Expert System for Solar Predictions, in R. J. Thompson, D. G. Cole, P. J. Wilkinson, M. A. Shea, D. Smart, and G. Heckman (eds.),Proceedings of Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop, in Leura Australia October 16–20, 1989, pp. 125–129.

  • Lundstedt, H.: 1991, ‘Neural Networks and Predictions’, inIAGA Programs and Abstract, XX General Assembly, IUGG, Vienna.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundstedt, H.: 1992a, ‘A Trained Neural Network, Geomagnetic Activity and Solar Wind Variation’, in M. A. Shea (ed.),Proceeding of Solar-Terrestrial Workshop in Ottawa May 18–22, NOAA, pp. 607–610.

  • Lundstedt, H.: 1992b, ‘Neural Networks and Predictions of Solar-Terrestrial Effects’,Planet. Space Sci. 40, 457–464.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundstedt, H. and Hoeksema, J. T.: 1992, ‘Neural Images of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Predictions of Geomagnetic Storms 27 Days Ahead’, inEos, October 27.

  • Lundstedt, H. and Wintoft, P.: 1994, ‘Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms from Solar Wind Data with the Use of a Neural Network’,Ann. Geophysicae 12, 19–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin, S. F.: 1993, ‘The Swelling and Destabilization of a Coronal Mass Ejection “bugle” by Newly Emerging Active Region’,Eos, Transactions, AGU, 1993 fall meeting,74, No. 43, October 26, supplement.

  • Martin, S. and Feynman, J.: 1994, ‘Precursors, Associations and After Effects to Coronal Mass Ejections’,Eos, Transactions, AGU, 1994 spring meeting,75, No. 16, April 19, supplement.

  • McAllister, A. H., Dryer, M., McIntosh, P., Singer, H. and Weiss, L.: 1994, inProceedings of 3rd SOHO Workshop Solar Dynamic Phenomena and Solar Wind Consequences, Estes Park, Colorado, USA, 26–29 Sept., 1994, ESA SP-373, pp. 315–318.

  • Mikic, Z. and Linker, J. A.: 1994, ‘Photospheric Shear as a Cause of Coronal Mass Ejections’,Eos, transactions, AGU, 1994 spring meeting,75, No. 16, April 19, suppliment.

  • Sandahl, I., Koskinen, H., Glassmeier, K-H., and Lundstedt, H.: 1995, ‘On the Need for Solar Wind Monitoring Close to the Magnetosphere’, inProceedings of 16th NSO/Sacramento Peak International workshop, Solar Drivers of Interplanetary and Terrestrial Disturbances, October 16–22, 1995.

  • Scherrer, P. H., Wilcox, J. M., Svalgaard, L., Duvall, T. L., Dittmer, Jr. P. H., and Gustafson, E. K.: 1977, ‘The Mean Magnetic Field of the Sun: Observations at Stanford’,Solar Phys. 54, 353–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sime, D. G.: 1993, ‘The Organization and Evolution of the Large Scale Solar Magnetic Field,Eos, Transactions, AFGU, 1993 fall meeting,74, No. 43, October 26, supplement.

  • Snel, R. and Lundstedt, H.: 1993, ‘Selforganising Maps of Solar Wind Structures’, in J. A. Joselyn, H. Lundstedt and J. Trollinger (eds.),Proceedings of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics Workshop, Lund, Sweden, September 22–24, 1993, pp. 97–107.

  • Sturrock, P. A.: 1994,Plasma Physics — An Introduction to the Theory of Astrophysical, Geophysical & Laboratory Plasmas, Cambridge Univ. Press.

  • Tsuneta, S. and Leman, J. R.: 1993, ‘Dynamics of Solar Corona Observed with Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope’, in J. F. Linsky and S. Serio (eds.),Physics of Solar and Stellar Coronae, pp. 113–130.

  • Tsurutani, B. T. and Gonzalez, W. D.: 1992, ‘Tweaking the Magnetosphere’,Nature 358, 26.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tsurutani, B. T., Gonzalez, W. D., Tang, F., Akasofu, S. I., and Smith, E. J.: 1988, ‘Origin of Interplanetary Southward Magnetic Fields Responsible for Major Magnetic Storms Near Solar Maximum (1978–1979)’,J. Geophys. Res. 93, 8519–8531.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y.-M. and Sheeley, N. R. Jr.: 1994, ‘Global Evolution of Interplanetary Sector Structure, Coronal Holes, and Solar Wind Streams During 1976–1993: Stackplot-Displays Based on Solar Magnetic’,J. Geophys. Res. 99, 6597–6608.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wintoft, P. and Lundstedt, P.: 1995, ‘IMF Polarity Prediction from WSO Magnetograms using Radial Basis Neural Network’,IUGG XXI General Assembly Meeting, Boulder, July 2–14, 1995, p. B140.

  • Wu, J.-G., and Lundstedt, H.: 1995, ‘Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms From Solar Wind Data Using Elman Recurrent Neural Networks’, accepted for publication December 29, 1995,Geophys. Res. Letters.

  • Zhao, X. and Hoeksema, J. T.: 1992, ‘A Magnetostatic Coronal Model with Horizontal Electric Currents: Modeling the Coronal Streamer Belt’, inProceedings of the First SOHO Workshop, Annapolis, Maryland, USA, 25–28 August 1992, ESA SP-348, November, pp. 117–120.

  • Zhao, X. and Hoeksema, J. T.: 1994, ‘A Coronal Magnetic Field Model with Horizontal Volume and Sheet Curents’,Solar Physics 151, 91–105.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, X. and Hoeksema, J. T.: 1995, ‘Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength’,J. Geophys. Res. 100, 19–33.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lund Observatory, Box 43, S-221 00, Lund, Sweden

    H. Lundstedt

Authors
  1. H. Lundstedt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lundstedt, H. Solar origin of geomagnetic storms and prediction of storms with the use of neural networks. Surv Geophys 17, 561–573 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01888978

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01888978

Key words

Search

Navigation