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Election closeness and voter turnout: Evidence from California ballot propositions

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Abstract

This paper uses a new data set of 885 California ballot propositions from 1912 through 1990 to test the hypothesis that voter turnout increases as an election becomes closer. Various measures of voter participation are regressed on various measures of election closeness. The main finding is that there is not a systematic relation between closeness and turnout. Two conclusions are drawn: (1) voters are not sensitive to the probability their votes are decisive, and (2) other studies which found higher turnout for close elections probably detected an increased mobilization of party elites in tight races.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Finance and Business Economics, School of Business Administration, University of Southern California, 90089-1421, Los Angeles, CA

    John G. Matsusaka

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  1. John G. Matsusaka
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I received helpful comments from Filip Palda, Ian Parry, Jeffrey Smith, members of the Economics Summer Workshop at The University of Chicago, and an anonymous referee. I am grateful to the Bradley Foundation and Olin Foundation (through grants to the Center for the Study of the Economy and the State) and The University of Chicago for financial support.

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Matsusaka, J.G. Election closeness and voter turnout: Evidence from California ballot propositions. Public Choice 76, 313–334 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01053302

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