Abstract
The performance of five stochastic models for generating annual streamflow sequences is evaluated based on applications to four Utah streams. Model performance is evaluated in terms of preservation of annual persistence statistics; cost and ease of model use; magnitude of the economic regret associated with drought-related agricultural losses; and comparison of reservoir capacity and critical drought design parameters. The ARMA-Markov and ARMA models are judged to be best overall in terms of preserving short- and long-term persistence. The broken line model is judged to be best in terms of minimizing economic regret. An initial model choice procedure is proposed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Gowon, D. T., Anderson, J. C., and Biswas, B., 1978, An economic interpretation of impact of phenologically timed irrigation on corn yield, Western J. Agric. Econ. 145–156.
Hanks, R. J., 1974, Model for predicting plant yield as influenced by water use, Argon. J. 65, 660–665.
Hoshi, K., Burges, S. J., and Yamaoka, I., 1978, Reservoir design capacities for various seasonal operational hydrology models, Proc. Japanese Soc. Div. Eng.. 273, 121–134.
James, W. R., Bowles, D. S., and Kottegoda, N. T., 1981, Model choice: An operational comparison of stochastic streamflow models for droughts, Report UWRL/P-81/03, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah.
Jettmar, R. V. and Young, G. K., 1975, Hydrologic estimation and economic regret. Water Resour. Res. 11, 648–656.
O'Connell, P. E., 1974, Stochastic modeling of long-term persistence in streamflow sequences, Doctoral thesis, Civil Engineering Department, Imperial College, London, England.
Salas, J. D., Delleur, J. W., Yevjevich, V., and Lane, W. L., 1980, Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series, Water Resources Publications.
Wallis, J. R. and Matalas, N. C., 1970, Small sample properties of H and K estimators of the Hurst coefficient h, Water Resour. Res. 6, 1583–1594.
Wallis, J. R. and Matalas, N. C., 1972, Sensitivity of reservoir design to the generating mechanisms of inflow. Water Resour. Res. 8, 634–641.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bowles, D.S., James, W.R. & Kottegoda, N.T. Initial model choice: An operational comparison of stochastic streamflow models for drought. Water Resour Manage 1, 3–15 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00421794
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00421794