Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The institutional context of science, models, and policy: The IIASA energy study

  • Published:
Policy Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This article is a complement to Keepin's technical analysis of the energy models and scenarios in the IIASA global energy study, Energy in a Finite World. It analyses the role of formal global energy models in the scenarios and policy conclusions as described in the IIASA Energy System Program's (ESP) own statements. It finds inconsistencies which have confused external audiences, including modelers, as to the importance of properties of formal models in generating authority for policy conclusions. The analysis finds two contradictory images of scientific authority pervading the ESP's published accounts. This article argues that models are more symbolic vehicles for gaining authority than objective technical frameworks. Whilst this is in principle legitimate, it means that the internal processes (and not just the products) of modeling projects are a legitimate subject of public evaluation. Due attention must therefore be paid to the quality and disclosure of such processes. The institutional process of analysis reflects a particular policy style itself and constrains what policies are even conceivable. Claims to scientific analysis and definition of policy problems are themselves symptomatic of a policy framework which is biased at a deeper level than that of specific prescriptions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Archibald, K. (1980). “The pitfalls of language or analysis through the looking glass,” in G. Majone and E. Quade (eds.), The Pitfalls of Analysis. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Atom, (1981). September, pp. 37–38.

  • Ausubel, J. H. and Nordhaus, W. D. (1983). “A review of estimates of future carbon dioxide emissions,” in Changing Climate. U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, pp. 153–191.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnes, S. B. and Edge, D. O. (eds.), (1982). Science in Context. London: Open University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Basile, P. (1980). “The IIASA Set of Energy Models: Its Design and Application.” RR-80–31. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Basile, P. (1982). “The IIASA set of energy models: Its design and application,” in Energy Modeling Studies and Conservation, UNECE Seminar, Washington, DC. New York: Pergamon Press, pp. 87–126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernal, J. D. (1968). The Social Functions of Science, Vols. I–IV. Harmondsworth: Pelican Reprint.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernstein, B. (1971). Class, Codes and Control Vol. 1, Theoretical Studies towards a Sociology of Language. London: Heinemann.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloor, D. (1976). Knowledge and Social Imagery. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonhoeffer, D. (1965). “What is meant by telling the truth,” Ethics, reprint from original translation of 1949. New York: MacMillan, pp. 363–372.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boulding, K. (1980). “Science, our common heritage,” Science 207(22): 831–836.

    Google Scholar 

  • Box, G. (1979). “Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building,” in R. L. Launer and G. N. Wilkinson (eds.), Robustness in Statistics. New York: Academic Press, pp. 201–235.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brewer, G. (1981). “Where the twain meet: reconciling science and politics in analysis,” Policy Sciences 13: 269–279.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brewer, G. (1983). “Some costs and consequences of large-scale social systems models,” Behavioral Science 28(2): 166–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown Jr., G. E. (1982). “Can systems analysis and operations research help Congress?” Interfaces 12(6): 119–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caputo, R. (1982). “Worlds in collision: Is a rational energy policy possible for Western Europe?” Futures 16(3): 233–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chadwick, M. J. and Lindman, H. (eds.) (1982). Environmental Implications of Expanded Coal Utilization. New York: Pergamon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Colombo, U. and Bernardini, O. (1981). “A low energy growth scenario for the year 2030,” Pontificae Academiae Scientarum Variae 46: 595–617.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dawn (1981). 19 August, p. 11.

  • DOGR, see IIASA ESP (1982).

  • Edelman, M. (1977). Political Language: Words that Succeed and Policies that Fail. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ezrahi, Y. (1974). “The authority of science in politics,” in A. Thackray and E. Mendelsohn (eds.), Science and Values. New York: Humanities Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleck, L. (1979). The Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, D. (1983). “On energy policy models,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 1(1): 24–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gass, S. I. (ed.) (1981). Validation and Assessment of Energy Models. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, p. 222.

  • Gilbert, G. N. and Mulkay, M. J. (1982). “Warranting scientific belief,” Social Studies of Science 12(3): 383–408.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldman, A. J. (1981). “Reflections on modeling and model assessment,” in S. I. Gass (ed.), Validation and Assessment of Energy Models. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards.

  • Greenberger, M. (1981). “Humanizing policy analysis: Confronting the paradox in energy policy modeling,” in S. I. Gass (ed.) Validation and Assessment of Energy Models. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards.

  • Greenberger, M., Crenson, M. A. and Crissey, B. L. (1976). Models in the Policy Process. New York: Russell Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenberger, M. and Richels, R. (1979). “Assessing energy policy models: current state and future directions,” Annual Review of Energy 4: 467–550.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenberger M. et al. (1983). Caught Unawares: The Energy Decade in Retrospect. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, especially Chapters 10 and 11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenhalgh, G. (1980). The Necessity for Nuclear Power. London: Graham and Trotman.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1974). “Hypotheticality and the new challenges: The pathfinder role of nuclear energy,” Minerva XII(1): 303–323.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1980a). “A global and long range picture of energy developments,” Science 209: 174–182.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1980b). “IIASA's world regional energy modeling,” Futures 12(1): 18–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1981a). Energy in a Finite World, Vol. I - Paths to a Sustainable Future; Vol 2 - A Global Systems Analysis. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1981b). “Putting the results of the II AS A energy systems program to work,” IIASA Reports, 3(1). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 49–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (198lc). “Energy in a finite world - Expansio ad absurdum?” A Rebuttal. The Energy Journal 2(4): 35–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1982a). Letter to W. Keepin, 19 July.

  • Häfele, W. (1982b). “World Energy Productivity and Production: The Nature of the Problem,” Invited paper, International Energy Symposium Series, World Fair, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA, mimeo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. (1983a). Letter to W. Keepin, 7 April.

  • Häfele, W. (1983b). “Energy strategies and nuclear power,” in G. S. Bauer and A. McDonald (eds.), Nuclear Technologies in a Sustainable Energy System. New York: Springer Verlag, pp. 3–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Häfele, W. and Basile, P. (1979). “Modeling of long range energy strategies with a global perspective,” in K. B. Haley (ed.), Operations Research '78. Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 493–529.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. B. (1984). “The energy model muddle,” Policy Sciences 16: 227–243.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hesse, M. B. (1966). Models and Analogies in Science. South Bend, IL: Notre Dame University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hesse, M. B. (1980). Revolutions and Reconstructions in the Philosophy of Science. Hassocks, Sussex, U.K.: Harvester Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IIASA ESP (1978). “Third Energy Program Status Report.” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • IIASA ESP (1982) The IIASA Set of Energy Models: Documentation of the Global Runs. Republication Issue (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA). Abbreviated to DOGR in the test.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaeger, J. (1984). Climate and Energy Systems: A Review of their Interactions. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, M. et al. (1981). The Usborne Book of Science Fun. London: Usborne Books, p. 4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keepin, W. (1983). “A Critical Appraisal of the IIASA Energy Scenarios.” WP-83–104. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knorr-Cetina, K. (1981). The Manufacture of Knowledge. Oxford: Pergamon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Konno, H. and Srinivasan, T. N. (1974). “The Häfele-Manne Model of Reactor Strategies: Some Sensitivity Analysis.” RR-74–19. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koreisha, S. and Stobaugh, R. (1979). “Limits to models,” in R. Stobaugh and D. Yergin (eds.), Energy Futures. New York: Random House, pp. 234–265.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuhn, T. S. (1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2nd Edition.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuhn, T. S. (1974). The Essential Tension. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Latour, B. and Woolgar, S. (1979). Laboratory Life: The Social Construction of Scientific Facts. London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Law, J. and Williams, R. J. (1982). “Putting facts together: A study of scientific persuasion,” Social Studies of Science 12(4): 535–538.

    Google Scholar 

  • Long, T. (1981). “Comments on paper by G. S. Packer,” in F. S. Roberts (ed.), Energy Modeling: Dealing with Energy Uncertainty. Proceedings of Second Symposium, Institute of Gas Technology, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lovins, A. (1981). “Expansio ad absurdum,” in The Energy Journal 2(4): 25–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Majone, G. (1980). “Policies as theories,” OMEGA, The International Journal of Management Science 8: 151–162.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mayer, L. (1981). In Gass, S. I. (ed.), Validation and Assessment of Energy Models. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, p. 134.

  • McDonald, A. (1981). Energy in a Finite World, Executive Summary. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meadows, D. (1981). “A Critique of the IIASA Energy Models,” The Energy Journal 2(3): 17–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meadows, D. (1983). Letter to W. Keepin, 26 April, and personal communications.

  • Meltsner, A. J. (1976). Policy Analysts in the Bureaucracy. Berkeley: University of California Press, p. 268.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mulkay, M. J. (1980). Science and the Sociology of Knowledge. London: George Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nehring, R. (1979). “Should there be a moratorium on the use of energy macro models?” in Proceedings of Symposium on Energy Modeling and Net Energy Analysis, Chicago, Institute of Gas Technology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelkin, D. (ed.) (1979). Controversy. Beverly Hills: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • New York Times, (1981). “The energy crisis century,” Editorial 25 March, p. A26.

  • Nuclear Energy, (1981). “Breeder reactors essential,” 20(4): 276–277.

  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). “World Modeling from the Bottom Up.” RM-75–10. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1979). The Efficient Use of Energy Resources. New Haven: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1980). “Thinking about Carbon Dioxide: Theoretical and Empirical Aspects of Optimum Control Strategies.” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 565, New Haven, Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D. and Yohe, G. W. (1983). “Future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels,” in Changing Climate, U.S. National Academy of Sciences Report, Washington, DC, pp. 87–152.

  • Parikh, K. (1983). IIASA Colloquium, May.

  • Parry, A. M., Fulkerson, W., Araj, K. J., Rose, D. J., Miller, M. M. and Rotty, R. M. (1982). “Energy supply and demand implications of CO2,” Energy 12: 991.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfeffer, J. (1982). “Management as symbolic action,” in B. Staw and L. Cummings (eds.), Research in Organizational Behavior. Volume 3. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 1–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinch, T. J. (1977). “What does a proof do if it does not prove?” in E. Mendelsohn et al. (eds.), The Social Production of Scientific Knowledge. Dordrecht, Holland: Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pilati, D. (1981). In S. I. Gass (ed.), Validation and Assessment of Energy Models. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, p. 137.

  • Polanyi, M. (1951). The Logic of Liberty. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.

    Google Scholar 

  • Polanyi, M. (1958). Personal Knowledge. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, especially chapters 9 and 10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ravetz, J. R. (1973). Scientific Knowledge and its Social Problems. London: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rip, A. (1984). “Legitimations of science in a changing world,” in T. Baumgarten (ed.), Wissenschaftssprache und Gesellschaft, (forthcoming).

  • Robinson, J. B. (1982). “Apples and horned toads: on the framework determined nature of the energy debate,” Policy Sciences 15: 23–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogner, H. -H. (1983). IIASA Colloquium, May.

  • Samouilidis, J. E. and Mitropoulos, C. S. (1982). “Energy-economy models: A survey,” European Journal of Operational Research 11: 222–232.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sassin, W. (1980). “Energy,” Scientific American 243(3): 107–117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sassin, W. (1982). Acting Energy Group Leader, Preface DOGR; see IIASA ESP (1982).

  • Sassin, W. et al. (1983). “Fuelling Europe in the Future, The Long-Term Energy Problem in the EC Countries: Alternative R&D Strategies.” RR-83–9/EUR 8421-En. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 18–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schrattenholzer, L. (1981). “The Energy Supply Model, MESSAGE.” RR-81–31. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, p. 5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, M. (1982). “Among the Energy Tribes: An Anthropological Analysis of the Current Energy Debate.” WP-82–59. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wynne, B. (1982). Rationality and Ritual: The Windscale Inquiry and Nuclear Decisions in Britain. Chalfont St. Giles: British Society for the History of Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wynne, B. (1983). “Redefining the issues of risk and social acceptance,” Futures 20 (Jan.–Feb.): 1–21.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Brian Wynne

Authors
  1. Brian Wynne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Brian Wynne is lecturer at the school of Independent Studies at the University of Lancaster, U.K. This work was carried out while he was leader of the project Institutional Settings and Environmental Policies at ILASA the from January 1983 to May 1984.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Wynne, B. The institutional context of science, models, and policy: The IIASA energy study. Policy Sci 17, 277–320 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138709

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138709

Keywords

Search

Navigation