Introduction: Energy Systems Modelling for a Sustainable World

Abstract

Since the first oil crisis more than forty years ago, concerns regarding energy security, economic impacts, air pollution, climate change, energy poverty, and societal well-being have been repeatedly calling for an energy revolution. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change are unambiguous: in order to identify the key technologies to achieve the energy revolution and the appropriate programs and policies that will bring them to the market, decision makers need robust policy analyses that encompass the relevant global, regional national and local factors, as well as increasing details and synergies across the complex issues which characterizes the energy system. Given their intrinsic nature, energy system models are particularly well suited to provide comprehensive, integrated and robust information on the short, medium and long term transformation of the energy systems under multiple constraints—economic, technology, environment and societal factors. This chapter introduces the development and use of energy system models by the members of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on energy systems modelling, namely the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP) to support the definition of energy and climate policies in an increasing number of countries. It also provides an overview of the 23 case studies presented in this book, all exploring the potential for feasible roadmaps at global, national or local scale compatible with a well below 2 ℃ future. They all show that those roadmaps are extremely challenging, and early action is essential.