Abstract
In 2018, China experienced the hottest summer since 1961. The maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures all reached the highest. Air temperatures in most regions were much higher than normal; in northern China especially, the temperature anomalies were above double of the standard deviations. Consistent variations of temperature anomalies appeared in the national mean and in northern China on different timescales from intraseasonal to annual, indicating that the above normal temperature in northern China contributed significantly to the record-breaking hot summer of entire China. Relationships among the high temperature in summer 2018, the tropospheric circulation, and the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are further analyzed. It is found that the intensified and more northward western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), weakened Northeast China cold vortex (NECV), and positive geopotential height anomaly from northern China to the Sea of Japan resulted in the abnormally high temperature in summer 2018. From late July to mid August, the WPSH was stronger than normal, with its ridge line jumping to north of 40°N; meanwhile, the NECV was much weaker and more northward than normal; both of the two systems led to the persistent high temperature in northern China during this period. In addition, the SSTs in Kuroshio and its extension area (K-KE) in summer 2018 were also the highest since 1961 and the greatest positive SST anomaly in K-KE was favorable for the above normal geopotential height over North China-Northeast China-Japan at 500 hPa, giving rise to the exceptionally high temperature in northern China.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, et al., 2011: The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 332, 220–224, doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/ccinnee.1201224.
Beniston, M., 2004: The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Gcophys. Rcs. Lett., 31, L02202, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018857.
Bian, T., G. Y. Ren, B. X. Zhang, et al., 2015: Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices at Shijiazhuang station, North China. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 119, 407–418, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1127-x.
Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and G. Hartfield, Eds., 2018: State of the climate in 2017. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Son., 99, S1–S310, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.
Ding, T., and W. H. Qian, 2012: Statistical characteristics of heat wave precursors in China and model prediction. Chinese J. Geophys., 55, 1472–1486. (in Chinese)
Ding, T., H. Gao, and W. J. Li, 2018: Extreme high-temperature event in southern China in 2016 and the possible role of cross-equatorial flows. Int. J. Climatol., 38, 3579–3594, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5518.
Ding, Y. H., 2013: Climate ie China. Science Press, Beijing, 467 pp. (in Chinese)
Dole, R., M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, et al., 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046582.
Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, et al., 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res., 19, 193–212, doi: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019193.
Gao, H., and J. Gao, 2014: Increased influences of the SST along the Kuroshio in previous winter on the summer precipitation in northeastern China. Acta Oceanol. Sinica, 36, 27–33, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.07.004. (in Chinese)
Gong, Z. Q., Y. J. Wang, Z. Y. Wang, et al., 2014: Brief analysis on climate anomalies and causations in summer 2013. Meteor. Mon., 40, 119–125. (in Chinese)
Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, R. Dole, et al., 2013: Anatomy of an extreme event. J. Climate, 26, 2811–2832, doi: 10.1175JJCLI-D-12-00270.1.
Hu, K. X., R. Y. Lu, and D. H. Wang, 2011: Cold vortex over Northeast China and its climate effect. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 179–191, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.15. (in Chinese)
Huang, J. Y., 2004: Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Prediction. Third Edition, China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 298 pp. (in Chinese)
Huang, R. H., and Y. F. Wu, 1989: The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 6, 21–32, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02656915.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, et al., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–472, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Ke, Z. J., Y. G. Wang, and Z. S. Gong, 2014: Review of the precursor and its application in summer climate prediction in 2013. Meteor. Mon., 40, 502–509. (in Chinese)
Kistler, R., E. Kalnay, W. Collins, et al., 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247–268, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2.
Li, J., T. Ding, X. L. Jia, et al., 2015: Analysis on the extreme heat wave over China around Yangtze River region in the summer of 2013 and its main contributing factors. Adv. Meteor., 2015, 706713, doi: https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/706713.
Li, Z. X., and Z. B. Sun, 2004: Relation between January Kuroshio SSTA and summer rainfall in China. J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor., 21, 374–380, doi: 10.3969jj.issn.l674-7097.2004.03.010. (in Chinese)
Nonaka, M., H. Nakamura, Y. Tanimoto, et al., 2006: Decadal variability in the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension simulated in an eddy-resolving OGCM. J. Climate, 19, 1970–1989, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3793.1.
Peng, J. B., G. Liu, and S. Q. Sun, 2016: An analysis on the formation of the heat wave in southern China and its relation to the anomalous western Pacific subtropical high in the summer of 2013. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 897–906, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.14334. (in Chinese)
Pezza, A. B., P. van Rensch, and W. J. Cai, 2012: Severe heat waves in southern Australia: Synoptic climatology and large scale connections. Climate Dyn., 38, 209–224, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1016-2.
Qian, W. H., and T. Ding, 2012: Atmospheric anomaly structures and stability associated with heat wave events in China. Chinese J. Geophys., 55, 1487–1500. (in Chinese)
Qin, D. H., J. Y. Zhang, C. C. Shan, et al., 2015: China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters. Science Press, Beijing, 400 pp.
Qiu, B., S. M. Chen, and N. Schneider, 2017: Dynamical links between the decadal variability of the Oyashio and Kuroshio extensions. J. Climate, 30, 9591–9605, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0397.1.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, et al., 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 108, 4407, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.
Ren, G. Y., Z. Y. Chu, Y. Q. Zhou, et al., 2005: Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China. Climatic Environ. Res., 10, 701–716, doi: 10.3969jj.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.001. (in Chinese)
Ren, Z. H., Y. Yu, F. L. Zou, et al., 2012: Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 23, 739–747, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2012.06.011. (in Chinese)
Robine, J. M., S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy, et al., 2008: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies, 331, 171–178, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001.
Sun, J. Q., 2014: Record-breaking SST over mid-North Atlantic and extreme high temperature over the Jianghuai-Jiangnan region of China in 2013. Chinese Sci. Bull., 59, 3465–3470, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0425-0.
Sun, Y., L. C. Song, H. Yin, et al., 2016: Human influence on the 2015 extreme high temperature events in western China. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S102–S106, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0158.1.
Trenberth, K. E., and J. T. Fasullo, 2012: Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D17103, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018020.
Wang, J., Z. W. Yan, X. W. Quan, et al., 2017: Urban warming in the 2013 summer heat wave in eastern China. Climate Dyn., 48, 3015–3033, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3248-7.
Wang, L., T. Li, and T. J. Zhou, 2012: Intraseasonal SST variability and air-sea interaction over the Kuroshio extension region during boreal summer. J. Climate, 25, 1619–1634, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00109.1.
Wang, Q., S. L. Li, and J. J. Fu, 2016: The impacts of SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China under the background of two different El Niño cases. J. Trop. Meteor., 32, 73–84, doi: https://doi.org/10.16032/j.issn.l004-4965.2016.01.008. (in Chinese)
Wang, X. D., Z. Zhong, Y. K. Tan, et al., 2011: Numerical experiment on the effect of the warmer SST in the Kuroshio extension in winter on the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Trop. Meteor., 27, 569–576, doi: 10.3969jj.issn.l004-4965.2011.04.014. (in Chinese)
Wei, F. Y., 2007: Modern Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology on Climate. Second Edition, China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 296 pp. (in Chinese)
Wen, M., and J. H. He, 2002: Ridge movement and potential mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high in summer. J. Naejieg lest. Meteor., 25, 289–297, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2002.03.001. (in Chinese)
Wu, B. Y., K. Yang, and R. H. Zhang, 2009: Eurasian snow cover variability and its association with summer rainfall in China. Adv. Atmos. Sni., 26, 31–14, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0031-2.
Wu, B. Y., R. H. Zhang, R. D’Arrigo, et al., 2013: On the relationship between winter sea ice and summer atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. J. Climate, 26, 5523–5536, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00524.1.
Yang, H. W., and G. L. Feng, 2016: Diagnostic analyses of characteristics and causes of regional and persistent high temperature event in China. Plateau Meteor., 35, 484–494. (in Chinese)
Yang, M. Z., L. J. Chen, and W. L. Song, 2013: Impact of Kuroshio SST on first frost dates in northern China. Meteor. Moe., 39, 1125–1132. (in Chinese)
Yasunari, T., A. Kitoh, and T. Tokioka, 1991: Local and remote responses to excessive snow mass over Eurasia appearing in the northern spring and summer climate: A study with the MRI-GCM. J. Meteor. Son. Japan, 69, 473–487, doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.69.4_473.
Yuan, Y., H. Gao, W. J. Li, et al., 2017: The 2016 summer floods in China and associated physical mechanisms: A comparison with 1998. J. Meteor. Res., 31, 261–277, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6192-5.
Zhai, P. M., and X. H. Pan, 2003: Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century. Anta Geogr. Sieina, 58, 1–10, doi: https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.z1.001. (in Chinese)
Zhang, L., L. J. Chen, Y. H. Zhou, et al., 2017: Dominant modes of summer temperature over China and its associated circulation anomalies. Meteor. Moe., 43, 1393–1401. (in Chinese)
Zhang, M., 2011: Variation features of summer high temperature and its influence process in China. Master dissertation, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China, 64 pp. (in Chinese)
Zhang, S. Y., H. D. Zhang, X. D. Xu, et al., 2005: Climatic character and cause analysis of summer high temperature in main cities of East China. Plateau Meteor., 24, 829–835, doi: https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2005.05.026. (in Chinese)
Zhang, X. D., and J. Sun, 2018: Analysis of the July 2018 atmospheric circulation and weather. Meteor. Moe., 44, 1370–1376. (in Chinese)
Zhang, Y., Y. H. Li, J. S. Wang, et al., 2014: Analysis on the cause of the abnormally persistent high temperature in southern China in July 2013. J. Trop. Meteor., 30, 1172–1180, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2014.06.018. (in Chinese)
Zheng, W. Z., and Y. Q. Ni, 1999: Diagnostic study on impact of sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical and mid latitude Pacific on summer low temperature cold damage in Northeast China. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 394–401, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.1999.04.002. (in Chinese)
Zhou, T. J., S. M. Ma, and L. W. Zou, 2014: Understanding a hot summer in central eastern China: Summer 2013 in context of multimodel trend analysis [in “Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Son., 95, S54–S57, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1.
Zou, H. B., S. S. Wu, J. S. Shan, et al., 2015: Diagnostic study of the severe high temperature event over mid-East China in summer 2013. Anta Meteor. Sieina, 73, 481–495, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2015.035. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1505603), National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2015BAC03B04), Youth Talent Development Program of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41205039 and 41776039), and Forecasters’ Project of CMA (CMAYBY2019-149).
Electronic supplementary material
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ding, T., Yuan, Y., Zhang, J. et al. 2018: The Hottest Summer in China and Possible Causes. J Meteorol Res 33, 577–592 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-8178-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-8178-y