Advertisement

Journal of Mountain Science

, Volume 16, Issue 1, pp 16–29 | Cite as

Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

  • Peter NojarovEmail author
  • Emil Gachev
  • Karsten Grunewald
Article
  • 23 Downloads

Abstract

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret’s size in the period from the 1950s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal (u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions–rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind direction from west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.

Keywords

Climate warming Glacieret Pirin Mountains Statistical modeling Glacieret area Projection 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the research project “Current impacts of global changes on evolution of karst (based on the integrated monitoring of model karst geosystems in Bulgaria)”, Science Research Fund (Grant No. DN14/10/20.12.2017). Field studies were funded by the South-west University of Blagoevgrad (grants RP-A 10/15, RP-A 13/17) and SRF (SRF 02/70). The authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments/suggestions which have helped to substantially improve the manuscript. Also, the authors would like to thank Dr. Felix Pahl, Berlin, Germany for his help in improving the English language of the manuscript.

References

  1. Berrisford P, Dee D, Poli P, et al. (2011) The ERA–Interim archive Version 2.0, ERA Report Series 1, ECMWF, Shinfield Park. Reading, UK. p 13177.Google Scholar
  2. Colucci R (2016) Geomorphic influence on small glacier response to post Little Ice Age climate warming: Julian Alps, Europe. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 41(9): 1227–1240.  https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3908 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Colucci R, Žebre M (2016) Late Holocene evolution of glaciers in the southeastern Alps. Journal of Maps 12(sup. 1): 289–299.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2016.1203216 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, et al. (2011) The ERAInterim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137(656): 553–597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Del Gobbo C, Colucci R, Forte E, et al. (2016) The Triglav Glacier (South–Eastern Alps, Slovenia): Volume estimation, internal characterization and 2000–2013 temporal evolution by means of ground penetrating radar measurements. Pure and Applied Geophysics 173(8): 2753–2766.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1348-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Djurovic P (2012) The Debeli Namet glacier from the second half of the 20th century to the present. Acta Geographica Slovenica 52(2): 277–301.  https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS52201 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gabrovec M, Ortar J, Pavšek M, et al. (2013) The Triglav glacier between the years 1999 and 2012. Acta Geographica Slovenica 53(2): 257–293.  https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS53202 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Gabrovec M, Hrvatin M, Komac B, et al. (2014) Triglav glacier. Geography of Slovenia, 30. Ljubljana. GIAM ZRC SAZU. p252.Google Scholar
  9. Gachev E (2011) Inter–annual size variations of Snezhnika glacieret (the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria) in the last ten years. Studia Geomorphologica Carpatho–Balcanica, vol. XLV: 47–68.Google Scholar
  10. Gachev E (2017) The unknown southernmost glaciers of Europe. In: Godone D (ed), Glaciers’s evolution in a changing world. InTech Publishers, Zagreb: 77–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gachev E, Gikov A (2010) A description and a first measurement of the glacieret in Banski suhodol cirque. Problems of Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 3–4: 90–98. (In Bulgarian)Google Scholar
  12. Gachev E, Gikov A, Zlatinova C, et al. (2009) Present state of Bulgarian glacierets. Landform Analysis 11: 16–24.Google Scholar
  13. Gachev E, Stoyanov K, Gikov A (2016) Small glaciers on the Balkan Peninsula: state and changes in the last several years. Quaternary International 415: 32–54.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.10.042 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gadek B (2008) The problem of firn/ice patches in the Polish Tatras as an indicator of climatic fluctuations. Geographia Polonica 1: 10–25.Google Scholar
  15. Glossary of glacier mass balance and related terms (2011) IACS, UNESCO, Paris.Google Scholar
  16. Grunewald K, Weber C, Scheithauer J, et al. (2006) Microglacier in the Pirin Mountains (Bulgaria). Journal of Glacial Science and Glacial Morphology 39: 99–114. (In German)Google Scholar
  17. Grunewald K, Scheithauer J (2008) Drilling in a microglacier. Journal of Glacial Science and Glacial Geology 42(1): 3–18. (in German)Google Scholar
  18. Grunewald K, Scheithauer J, Monget JM, et al. (2009) Characterization of contemporary local climate change in the mountains of southwest Bulgaria. Climatic Change 95(3–4): 535–549.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9508-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Grunewald K, Scheithauer J (2010) Europe’s southernmost glaciers: response and adaptation to climate change. Journal of Glaciology 56(195): 129–142.  https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310791190947 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Grunewald K, Scheithauer J (2011) Landscape development and climate change in Southwest Bulgaria (Pirin Mountains). Springer. p161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Grunewald K, Gachev E, Kast G, et al. (2016) Meteorological observations in National Park “Pirin”. IÖR Dresden, Bansko, Sofia, Dresden. p10.  https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3805.4160 Google Scholar
  22. Gunn J (ed.) (2004) Encyclopedia of Caves and Karst Science. Taylor and Francis, London, New York. p 1940.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hughes P (2007) Recent behaviour of the Debeli Namet glacier, Durmitor, Montenegro. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. The Journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group 32(10): 1593–1602.  https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1537 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hughes P (2008) Response of a Montenegro glacier to extreme summer heatwaves in 2003 and 2007. Geografiska Annaler 90(4): 259–267.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2008.00344.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hughes P (2009) Twenty–first century glaciers in the Prokletije Mountains, Albania. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 41: 455–459.  https://doi.org/10.1657/1938-4246-41.4.455 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hughes P (2014) Little Ice Age glaciers in the Mediterranean mountains. Journal of Mediterranean geography 122: 63–79.  https://doi.org/10.4000/mediterranee.7146 Google Scholar
  27. IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G–K, et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p1535.Google Scholar
  28. Ivanov Zh, Dimov D, Sarov S (2000) Tectonic position, structure and tectonic evolution of the Rhodopes massif. In: Ivanov Z (ed.): Structure, alpine evolution and mineralizations of the Central Rhodope area (South Bulgaria). ABCD–GEODE Workshop, Borovets, Sofia University, Bulgaria: 1–20.Google Scholar
  29. Kuhlemann J, Milivojevic M, Krumrei I, et al. (2009) Last glaciation of the Sara range (Balkan Peninsula): increasing dryness from the LGM to the Holocene. Austrian Journal of Earth Sciences 102: 146–158.Google Scholar
  30. Lilienberg D, Popov V (1966) New data about the glaciation of Pirin massif (Rhodopes). Doklady AN SSSR 167(5). (In Russian)Google Scholar
  31. Milivojevic M, Menkovic L, Calic J (2008) Pleistocene glacial relief of the central part of Mt. Prokletije (Albanian Alps). Quaternary International 190: 112–122.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2008.04.006 Google Scholar
  32. Nojarov P (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a factor for air temperatures in Bulgaria. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 125: 145–158.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0332-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Nojarov P (2017) Circulation factors affecting precipitation over Bulgaria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 127: 87–101.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1633-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Nojarov P (2017) The increase in September precipitation in the Mediterranean region as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 129: 145–156.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0463-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Oerlemans J (2005) Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308(5722): 675–677.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Pavšek M (2007) The Skuta glacier as an indicator of climate changes in Slovenian part of the Alps. Dela 28: 207–219.  https://doi.org/10.4312/dela.28.15.207-219 Google Scholar
  37. Pecci M, D’Agata C, Smiraglia C (2008) Ghiacciaio del Calderone (Apennines, Italy): the mass balance of a shrinking glacier. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 31(1): 55–62.Google Scholar
  38. Popov V (1962) Morphology of the cirque Golemiya Kazan–Pirin Mountains. Announcements of the Institute of Geography VI: 86–99. (In Bulgarian)Google Scholar
  39. Popov V (1964) Observations on the snow patch in the cirque Golemiya Kazan, the Pirin mountains. Announcements of the Institute of Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences V???: 198–207. (In Bulgarian)Google Scholar
  40. Ricou LE, Burg JP, Godfriaux I, et al. (1998) Rhodope and Vardar: the metamorphic and the olistostromic paired belts related to the Cretaceous subduction under Europe. Geodinamica Acta 11(6): 285–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Serrano E, González–Trueba JJ, Sanjosé JJ, et al. (2011) Ice patch origin, evolution and dynamics in a temperate high mountain environment: the Jou Negro, Picos de Europa (NW Spain). Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography 93: 57–70.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2011.00006.x Google Scholar
  42. Wilks DS (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 91, Second Edition (International Geophysics), Elsevier, Academic Press. p 627.Google Scholar
  43. Zasadni J (2007) The Little Ice Age in the Alps: its record in glacial deposits and rock glacier formation. Studia geomorphologica carpatho–balcanica XLI: 117–137.Google Scholar
  44. Zemp M, Paul F, Hoelzle M, et al. (2008) Glacier fluctuations in the European Alps, 1850–2000: an overview and spatiotemporal analysis of available data. In: Darkening Peaks: Glacier Retreat, Science, and Society. Orlove B, Wiegandt E, Luckman BH (eds.), Berkeley, US: University of California Press. pp 152–167.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and GeographyBulgarian Academy of SciencesSofiaBulgaria
  2. 2.South-West University “Neofit Rilski”BlagoevgradBulgaria
  3. 3.Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development01217Germany

Personalised recommendations