Abstract
The empirical and theoretical justification of Gartner “hype curves” is a very relevant open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. The scope of the present paper is to introduce a simple model describing the growth of scientific/technological research impact, in the specific case where science is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading to “hype-type” evolution curves. The main idea of the model is that, in a first stage, the growth of the scientific interest of a new specific field (as can be measured by publication numbers) basically follows the classical “logistic” growth curve. At a second stage, starting at a later trigger time, the technological development based on that scientific idea (as can be measured by patent deposits) can be described as the integral (in a mathematical sense) of the first curve, since technology is based on the overall accumulated scientific knowledge. The model is preliminary tested through a bibliometric analysis of the publication and patent deposit rate for organic light emitting diodes scientific research and technology.
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Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank Maria Grazia Maglione (ENEA) for sharing data on OLED market forecast and useful suggestions and Fabrizio De Filippis (University of Roma Tre) for careful reading of the manuscript.
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Campani, M., Vaglio, R. A simple interpretation of the growth of scientific/technological research impact leading to hype-type evolution curves. Scientometrics 103, 75–83 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1533-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1533-6