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Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child

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Abstract

The present study addresses the issue of economic insecurity and its relationship with the reproductive plans of 5,358 Italian women in couples who have recently had their first child. Data were sourced from the ISTAT Sample Survey on Births, 2005 edition. This article’s originality lies in the conceptualization of economic insecurity and the investigation of its effects on fertility intentions. We propose to capture economic insecurity by considering both the insecurity associated to the two partners’ employment status and a variety of aspects that contribute to the household’s ability to cope with possible unpredictable future events. Then, we investigate whether and how economic insecurity shapes the fertility intentions of women over their entire reproductive life span. With specific respect to women who intend to have one additional child only, we also observe the effect of economic insecurity on their intention to give birth sooner (i.e., within the next 3 years) or later. Our data show the existence of a critical factor in the passage from the generic fertility intentions to the contingent plan to have a child in the next 3 years: only half of women with one child who intend to follow the two-child family model feel ready to plan to have a second child in the next 3 years. The study also reinforces an argument that is frequently made: fertility intentions over the entire lifetime are less conditioned upon contingent constraints, and are often more closely related to individual traits and/or preferences.

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Notes

  1. The survey, being directed at women only, does not collect information on partners’ fertility intentions. We are aware, however, of their relevance and of the complexity of the decision-making process within the couple (for a thorough review of studies dealing with the issue, e.g., Thomson et al. (1990); for a recent analysis on couples in Italy, see Cavalli and Rosina (2011). At the same time, several studies have shown a strong association between women’s and their partners’ fertility intentions, suggesting that the intentions women express at the time of interview have been influenced by previous daily interactions, the sharing of experiences, and negotiations between the partners, and they are thus already inclusive of men’s intentions (Berrington 2004; Fried et al. 1980; Miller and Pasta 1995; Morgan 1985; Thomson 1997; Thomson et al. 1990; Thomson and Hoem 1998; Udry 1983).

  2. The survey only distinguishes between positive and negative fertility intentions. Both respondents who answered “don’t know” and respondents who refuse to answer were coded as “no answer.” Therefore, our analysis could not take into account the degree of certainty attached to fertility intentions, and the category of women with uncertain fertility intentions could not be included in the models.

  3. The survey does not collect information on the male partner’s contract duration. Although the position in employment is more directly indicative of the quality of employment and of the associated earning levels, it also proves to be meaningful for the purposes of our study. ISTAT data for the period 2004–2011 show that men in medium–low occupational position have a risk of being unemployed after 1 year from two to five times higher than those in high occupational positions (personal elaboration on LFS Longitudinal microdata, various years. Downloadable from https://contact.istat.it/).

  4. We coded in the category “high positions” men working as managers, executives, entrepreneurs, and professionals. Owing to the specification of the variable in the questionnaire, it was not possible to distinguish between medium and low positions, which have therefore been grouped together.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Population Change, University of St Andrews, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh, EH12 7TF, UK

    Francesca Fiori

  2. Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Viale Liegi 13, 00198, Rome, Italy

    Francesca Rinesi & Sabrina Prati

  3. Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza, Università di Roma, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy

    Antonella Pinnelli

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  1. Francesca Fiori
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  2. Francesca Rinesi
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  3. Antonella Pinnelli
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  4. Sabrina Prati
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Correspondence to Francesca Fiori.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Table 4 Distribution of women with one child by quantum of their fertility intentions and main demographic and socioeconomic variables (%) (Weighted data)
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Table 5 Distribution of women with one child intending to have one additional child only, by timing of their fertility intentions and main demographic and socioeconomic variables (%) (Weighted data)
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Table 6 Heckman probit model on the timing of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child intending to have one additional child only (Main effects. Coefficients and their significance)
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Table 7 Multinomial logistic regression on the quantum of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child (Interaction between occupational insecurity and proportion of income spent. Relative risks and their significance)
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Table 8 Multinomial logistic regression on the quantum of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child (Interaction between occupational insecurity and tenure. Relative risks and their significance)
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Table 9 Multinomial logistic regression on the quantum of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child (Interaction between occupational insecurity and family-based welfare. Relative risks and their significance)
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Table 10 Logistic model on the timing of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child intending to have one additional child only (Interaction between occupational insecurity and % of income spent. Odds ratio and their significance)
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Table 11 Logistic model on the timing of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child intending to have one additional child only (Interaction between occupational insecurity and tenure. Odds ratio and their significance)
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Table 12 Logistic model on the timing of fertility intentions of Italian women with one child intending to have one additional child only (Interaction between occupational insecurity and family-based welfare. Odds ratio and their significance)
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Fiori, F., Rinesi, F., Pinnelli, A. et al. Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child. Popul Res Policy Rev 32, 373–413 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-013-9266-9

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