Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Past crops yield dynamics reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies in the forest-steppe zone based on low- and high-frequency components

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Interrelations of the yield variability of the main crops (wheat, barley, and oats) with hydrothermal regime and growth of conifer trees (Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica) in forest-steppes were investigated in Khakassia, South Siberia. An attempt has been made to understand the role and mechanisms of climatic impact on plants productivity. It was found that amongst variables describing moisture supply, wetness index had maximum impact. Strength of climatic response and correlations with tree growth are different for rain-fed and irrigated crops yield. Separated high-frequency variability components of yield and tree-ring width have more pronounced relationships between each other and with climatic variables than their chronologies per se. Corresponding low-frequency variability components are strongly correlated with maxima observed after 1- to 5-year time shift of tree-ring width. Results of analysis allowed us to develop original approach of crops yield dynamics reconstruction on the base of high-frequency variability component of the growth of pine and low-frequency one of larch.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alisov BP (1956) Climate of the USSR. Moscow State University, Moscow 128 p [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazhenova OI, Tyumentseva EM (2010) The structure of contemporary denudation in the steppes of the Minusinskaya depression. Geogr Nat Resour 31(4):362–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gnr.2010.11.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM, Angulo M (2010) A multi-scalar global drought data set: the SPEIbase: a new gridded product for the analysis of drought variability and impacts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(10):1351–1354. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2988.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindi M, Olesen JE (2011) The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change. Reg Environ Chang 11(1S):151–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0173-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butanaev VY (2002) The socio-economic history of Khongoray (Khakassia) in the XIX – early XX centuries. Khakass State University, Abakan p 212 [In Russian]

  • Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Clim Chang 4(1):287–291. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153

  • Chapin FS III, Schulze ED, Mooney HA (1990) The ecology and economics of storage in plants. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 21:423–447. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.21.110190.002231

  • Chlebovich IA, Bufal VV (1976) Natural conditions of the steppes of Minusinsk depression. Nauka press, Novosibirsk

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER (1985) A time series analysis approach to tree ring standardization. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, p 171

  • Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) (1990) Methods of dendrochronology. Kluwer, Dordrecht 394 р

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Krusic PJ (2005) Program ARSTAN: a tree-ring standardization program based on detrending and autoregressive time series modeling, with interactive graphics. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289(5487):2068–2074. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London, p 567

  • Helama S, Holopainen J, Macias-Fauria M, Timonen M, Mielikäinen K (2013) A chronology of climatic downturns through the mid- and late-Holocene: tracing the distant effects of explosive eruptions from palaeoclimatic and historical evidence in northern Europe. Polar Res 32(1):15866. https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v32i0.15866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hlavinka P, Trnka M, Semerádová D, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z, Možný M (2009) Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agric For Meteorol 149(3–4):431–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.09.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holman IP, Brown C, Janes V, Sandars D (2017) Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis. Agric Syst 151:126–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.001

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Huhtamaa H, Helama S, Holopainen J, Rethorn C, Rohr C (2015) Crop yield responses to temperature fluctuations in 19th century Finland: provincial variation in relation to climate and tree-rings. Boreal Environ Res 20:707–723. https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.70535

  • Huhtamaa H, Helama S (2017) Reconstructing crop yield variability in Finland: long-term perspective of the cultivation history on the agricultural periphery since AD 760. The Holocene 27(1):3–11. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616646188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iizumi T, Ramankutty N (2016) Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981–2010 explained by climate change. Environ Res Lett 11(3):34003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2015) Meeting report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change expert meeting on climate change, food, and agriculture. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, p 68

  • Kattsov VM, Semenov SM (eds) (2014) Second Roshydromet assessment report on climate change and its consequences in Russian Federation. Roshydromet, Moscow, p 54

  • Latkin NV (1890) Krasnoyarsk County of the Yenisei Gubernia: Feature story by N. V. Latkin. Typography and lithography of VA Tikhanov, St. Petersburg, p 74 [In Russian]

  • Lei Y, Liu Y, Song H, Sun B (2014) A wetness index derived from tree-rings in the Mt. Yishan area of China since 1755 AD and its agricultural implications. Chin Sci Bull 59(27):3449–3456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0410-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipper L, Thornton P, Campbell BM, Baedeker T, Braimoh A, Bwalya M, Caron P, Cattaneo A, Garrity D, Henry K, Hottle R, Jackson L, Jarvis A, Kossam F, Mann W, McCarthy N, Meybeck A, Neufeldt H, Remington T, Sen PT, Sessa R, Shula R, Tibu A, Torquebiau EF (2014) Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nature Clim Chang 4(12):1068–1072. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Ortiz-Monasterio JI, Asner GP, Matson PA, Naylor RL, Falcon WP (2005) Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. Field Crop Res 94(2–3):250–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007

  • Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2(1):014002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Meng Z et al (2016) Effects of regulated deficit irrigation on grain yield and quality traits in winter wheat. Trans ASABE 59(3):897–907. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.59.11400

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller B, Seneviratne SI (2012) Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. PNAS 109(31):12398–12403. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204330109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myglan VS, Ovchinnikov DV, Vaganov EA, Zhirnova DF (2007) Influence of climatic changes on the economic activities of the population in Southern Siberia during the small period of glaciations. Geogr Nat Resour 1:90–96 [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Myglan VS (2010) The climate and society of Siberia in the small ice age. Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk 230 р [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N (1997) Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends. Nature 387(6632):484–485. https://doi.org/10.1038/387484a0

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nouri M, Homaee M, Bannayan M (2017) Climate variability impacts on rainfed cereal yields in west and northwest Iran. Int J Biometeorol 61(9):1571–1583. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1336-y

  • Ozturk A, Aydin F (2004) Effect of water stress at various growth stages on some quality characteristics of winter wheat. J Agron Crop Sci 190(2):93–99. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1439-037X.2003.00080.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Palosuo T, Hakala K, Ruosteenoja K (2016) Rainfed crop production challenges under European high-latitude conditions. Reg Environ Chang 16(5):1521–1533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0875-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pfister C (2010) The vulnerability of past societies to climatic variation: a new focus for historical climatology in the twenty-first century. Clim Chang 100(1):25–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9829-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K, Howden SM, Iqbal MM, Lobell DB, Travasso MI (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: IPCC. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. PartA: global and sectoral aspects. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 485–533

    Google Scholar 

  • Prasad PVV, Pisipati SR, Momčilović I, Ristic Z (2011) Independent and combined effects of high temperature and drought stress during grain filling on plant yield and chloroplast EF-Tu expression in spring wheat. J Agron Crop Sci 197(6):430–441. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-037X.2011.00477.x

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Qureshi ME, Hanjra MA, Ward J (2013) Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy 38:136–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.11.003

  • RF. Government of the Republic of Khakassia (2011) Territorial planning scheme of the Republic of Khakassia. Approved by Resolution No 763 from 14 Nov 2011. Retrieved from http://www.pravo.gov.ru/proxy/ips/?docbody=&nd=167019881 [In Russian]

  • Rosenzweig C, Tubiello FN, Goldberg R, Mills E, Bloomfield J (2002) Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Glob Environ Chang 12(3):197–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. PNAS 111(9):3268–3273. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rygalova NV, Bykov NI, Plutalova TG (2014) Retrospective study of crop yield dynamics in the Altai region by dendrochronology method. Bull Altai State Agrar Univ 10(120):43–49 [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Sauchyn D, Barrow E, Fang X, Henderson N, Johnston M, Pomeroy J, Thorpe J, Wheaton E, Williams B (2009) Saskatchewan’s natural capital in a changing climate: An assessment of impacts and adaptation. Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Saskatchewan, p 162. Retrieved from http://www.parc.ca/pdf/research_publications/pp2009-02_web.pdf

  • van der Schrier G, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Jones PD (2013) A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(10):4025–4048. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schulze ED, Beck E, Müller-Hohenstein K (2005) Plant ecology. Springer, Berlin, p 702

  • Selyaniniov GT (1958) Principles of agroclimatic regional planning in USSR. In: Davitaya FF, Shulgina AI (eds) Questions of agroclimatic zoning of the USSR. Ministry of Agriculture of the USSR, Moscow, pp 18–26 [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Semenov YM, Lysanova GI, Maksyutova EV (2004) The modern state and prospects for the use of agrarian landscapes in the Minusinsk basin. Geogr Nat Resour 2:78–84 [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Litschi M, Schär C (2006) Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443(7108):205–209. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05095

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Speer JH (2010) Fundamentals of tree-ring research. University of Arizona, Tucson, p 368

  • Sun J, Liu Y (2014) Responses of tree-ring growth and crop yield to drought indices in the Shanxi province, North China. Int J Biometeorol 58(7):1521–1530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0757-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Surin NA, Lyakhova NE (1993) Breeding of barley in Siberia. SB RAAS, Novosibirsk 292 p [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Therrell MD, Stanle DW, Diaz JV, Cornelo Oviedo EH, Cleaveland MK (2006) Tree-ring reconstructed maize yield in central Mexico: 1474-2001. Clim Chang 74(4):493–504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6865-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Kherchouche D, Oudjehih B, Touchan H, Slimani S, Meko DM (2016) Dendroclimatology and wheat production in Algeria. J Arid Environ 124:102–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.07.016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USSR. Hydrometeorological Service (1974) Agroclimatic Resources of the Krasnoyarsk Krai and of the Tuva ASSR. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, p 211 [In Russian]

  • Vaganov EA (1989) Method of crops yield prediction using dendrochronological data. Russ J Ecol 3:15–23 [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Vatin VA (1922) Minusinsk town. State Typography, Minusinsk 394 p [In Russian]

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang R, Bowling LC, Cherkauer KA (2016) Estimation of the effects of climate variability on crop yield in the Midwest USA. Agric For Meteorol 216:141–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.10.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y, Liu Y (2016) Reconstruction of March–June precipitation from tree rings in central Liaoning, China. Clim Dyn 49(9–10):3111–3121. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3497-5

  • Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23(2):201–213. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023%3C0201:OTAVOC%3E2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Babst F, Ciais P, Frank D, Reichstein M, Wattenbach M, Zang C, Mahecha MD (2014) Climate-mediated spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial productivity across Europe. Biogeosciences 11:3057–3068. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014

  • Yadav RR, Misra KG, Yadav AK, Kotlia BS, Misra M (2015) Tree-ring footprints of drought variability in last ~300 years over Kumaun Himalaya, India and its relationship with crop productivity. Quat Sci Rev 117:113–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhirnova DF (2005) Patterns of the crops yield long-term variability in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Khakassia. Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, Krasnoyarsk 125 р [In Russian]

Download references

Acknowledgments

Author SKS thanks Prof. S. Bajpai, director of BSIP, for providing permission to participate in this research work (BSIP no. 28/2017-18).

Funding

The financial support for this study was provided by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Khakassia (project No. 16-44-190140), and by the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation and the Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund for Support of Scientific and Technical Activity (project No. 16-16-24015).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Khakass Technical Institute, Siberian Federal University, 27 Shchetinkina St., Abakan, Russia, 655017

    Elena A. Babushkina, Liliana V. Belokopytova & Dina F. Zhirnova

  2. Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, 53 University Road, Lucknow, 226007, India

    Santosh K. Shah

Authors
  1. Elena A. Babushkina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Liliana V. Belokopytova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Santosh K. Shah
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Dina F. Zhirnova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Elena A. Babushkina.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(PDF 674 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Babushkina, E.A., Belokopytova, L.V., Shah, S.K. et al. Past crops yield dynamics reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies in the forest-steppe zone based on low- and high-frequency components. Int J Biometeorol 62, 861–871 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1488-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1488-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation