Abstract
Key Message
The principal components of tree-ring anatomical chronologies of Scots pine proved to be much better proxy than its tree-ring width for reconstruction of climate-driven component in the regional yield of cereals
Abstract
Tree-ring records are often used as a proxy not only for climate, but also for other related variables. One of such applications is the reconstruction of crop yield, since both are indicators of productivity in the respective ecosystems. Recently, finer parameters of wood structure were applied to enhance the sensitivity and temporal resolution of the registered climatic signal and thus to improve the quality of tree-ring based reconstructions. This pioneering study tests cell-scale quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) of conifer tree species as a proxy for crop yield in the moisture-limited plains of Khakassia (South Siberia). Spring wheat, oats, and barley yield series generalized for rain-fed (north of the region) and irrigated (central part) fields in the steppes were compared with long-term (1807–2018) QWA series of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from the forest-steppe in the foothills. Chronologies of the cell radial diameter and cell wall thickness, describing the tree ring separated into 15 sectors, were obtained and indexed to remove their common exponential dependence on the number of cells per radial row in the ring. The tree-ring width alone could explain only 16.0 and 5.3% of yield variation for rain-fed and irrigated crops, respectively. Whereas, the multifactor linear regressions with stepwise inclusion of QWA chronologies explained 48.4 and 16.1%. The implementation of principal components for QWA in the models further increased the fitness to 48.9 and 23.0%. These reconstructions have climatic responses during the vegetative season similar to ones of the respective actual yield series. The reconstructed history of the low-yield years is supported by documented evidence of crop failures, droughts, and other related events.
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Data Availability
The data presented in this study are available on reasonable request from the corresponding author.
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Acknowledgements
The author SKS is thankful to Director of BSIP (India) for the due encouragement to participate in this study.
Funding
This study was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant number 20-016-00049. The funder had no role in study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.
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Babushkina, E.A., Zhirnova, D.F., Belokopytova, L.V. et al. Conifer quantitative wood anatomy as proxy data: application in agricultural yield reconstruction. Trees (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-023-02437-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-023-02437-x