Abstract
In the 20th century, Eurasian warming was observed and was closely related to global oceanic warming (the first leading rotated empirical orthogonal function of annual mean sea surface temperature over the period 1901–2004). Here, large-scale patterns of covariability between global oceanic warming and circulation anomalies are investigated based on NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. In winter, certain dominant features are found, such as a positive pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), low-pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia, and a weakened East Asian trough. Numerical experiments with the CAM3.5, CCM3 and GFDL models are used to explore the contribution of global oceanic warming to the winter Eurasian climate. Results show that a positive NAO anomaly, low-pressure anomalies in northern Eurasia, and a weaker-than-normal East Asian trough are induced by global oceanic warming. Consequently, there are warmer winters in Europe and the northern part of East Asia. However, the Eurasian climate changes differ slightly among the three models. Eddy forcing and convective heating from those models may be the reason for the different responses of Eurasian climate.
摘 要
二十世纪, 欧亚大陆地表气温显示明显的升温, 其与全球海表温度升高表现出密切的相关(1901–2004年全球年平均海表温度旋转正交函数分解的第一主模态). 与此同时, NCEP-NCAR再分析数据表明大尺度环流异常与全球海表温度升高也呈现了明显的共变关系, 例如一个正位相的北大西洋涛动, 欧亚大陆北部低压异常以及东亚大槽减弱. 利用CAM3.5, CCM3和GFDL AM2.1三个大气模式进行一系列数值试验去探讨全球海表温度升高对欧亚冬季气候的影响, 结果显示全球海表温度升高会引发一个正位相的北大西洋涛动异常, 同时欧亚大陆北部出现低压异常以及东亚大槽减弱. 从而, 欧洲以及东亚北部地区出现暖冬. 但是, 这三个大气模式的试验结果略有不同, 三个模式中涡度强迫以及对流加热的模拟能力可能是导致这一结果略有不同的原因.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600703), the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41421004), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences–Peking University (CAS–PKU) partnership program. This research was also supported by “the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”. The work was partially supported by the U.S. CLIVAR drought working group activity for coordinating and comparing climate model simulations forced by a common set of idealized SST patterns. We thank the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for making their CCM3 runs available, NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for the AM2.1 (GFDL) runs, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research for the CAM3.5 runs.
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Hao, X., He, S., Han, T. et al. Impact of Global Oceanic Warming on Winter Eurasian Climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 35, 1254–1264 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7216-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7216-5