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Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

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Abstract

The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

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Acknowledgments

This study was partially supported by project POCTI/BIA-BDE/55596/2004 from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT, Lisbon, Portugal), by Cooperation CNRST-FCT (2008–2009), and by project “Biodiversity, Ecology and Global Change” cofinanced by North Portugal Regional Operational Programme 2007/2013 (ON.2—O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF), through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). FMF is supported by FCT (SFRH/BPD/69857/2010). The authors acknowledge M. Barata, D.J. Harris, D. Salvi, S. Ferreira, C. Vale, Z. Boratyński, G. Velo-Antón, P. Sierra, and A. Pérez for helping with the fieldwork carried out during 2012 and the four anonymous referees for their comments in the early version of this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos da Universidade do Porto, Universidade do Porto, Instituto de Ciências Agrárias de Vairão, R. Padre Armando Quintas, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal

    Fernando Martínez-Freiría & José C. Brito

  2. Département de Biologie, Faculté des Sciences, Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi, Tétouan, Morocco

    Hamida Argaz & Soumía Fahd

  3. Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Rua Campo Alegre, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal

    José C. Brito

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  1. Fernando Martínez-Freiría
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  2. Hamida Argaz
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  3. Soumía Fahd
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  4. José C. Brito
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Correspondence to Fernando Martínez-Freiría.

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Communicated by: Sven Thatje

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Martínez-Freiría, F., Argaz, H., Fahd, S. et al. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas. Naturwissenschaften 100, 877–889 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-013-1088-4

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