Summary
It was shown mathematically that crop yields are affected by the climatic conditions of earlier periods. In a moderate humid climate, as is found in The Netherlands and in eastern England, an appreciable part of total variance cna be explained by the amounts of earlier rainfall. The effects are most pronounced with crops which received either no or only moderate amounts of nitrogen.
The correlations of yields with rainfall in the previous summer period (July–October) are negative. Yields of winter and spring cereals are also negatively affected by rainfall in the preceding winter period (November–February) and yields of industrial potatoes by rainfall in the period preceding crop emergence (1 March–20 May). Peas are characterized by a high sensitivity to rainfall which occurs in the growing season.
The negative correlation between amounts of earlier rainfall and crop yields is due to the effect of rainfall on the fertility status of the soil. Probably nitrogen plays an important role in carrying the effects of past weather over to the crop.
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van der Paauw, F. Quantification of the effects of weather conditions prior to the growing season on crop yields. Plant Soil 37, 375–388 (1972). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02139980
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02139980