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Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population

  • Colorectal Cancer
  • Published:
Annals of Surgical Oncology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

Colon cancer nomogram designed by Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) is an online prediction tool to predict overall survival for individual patient after curative resection. However, this model was never externally validated. We evaluated the accuracy of this nomogram in an independent external Chinese cohort.

Methods

Clinical data from 1005 patients who underwent primary curative-intent surgery at Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute between 1996 and 2008 were used for external validation. Clinicopathologic characteristics and the performance of the MSKCC nomogram for prediction of overall survival were evaluated for 985 patients with complete data by using concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot.

Results

The C-index for the MSKCC nomogram was 0.71 in the Chinese cohort, compared with 0.67 for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (P < .0001). This suggests that the nomogram discriminates overall survival better than AJCC staging system. Calibration plot showed a good calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the MSKCC nomogram prediction illustrated the heterogeneity for survival of Chinese patients within each AJCC stage.

Conclusions

The MSKCC nomogram for colon cancer provides more accurate survival predictions than the AJCC staging system when applied to an external Chinese cohort. The MSKCC nomogram improved individualized prediction of survival and may aid in more accurate patient counseling, selection of various treatment options, and follow-up scheduling.

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Acknowledgment

This study was supported by the grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81272766, No. 31171270, No. 81450028, No. 81470129, and No. 81402346), the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2014AA020603), Clinical Characteristics and Application Research of Capital (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z121107001012130), Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support (No. XM201309, No. ZY201410), Peking University (PKU) 985 Special Funding for Collaborative Research with PKU Hospitals (To Xiangqian Su and Fan Bai), Seeding Grant for Medicine and Life Sciences of Peking University(2014-MB-04), Beijing Natural Science Foundation (No. 7132054), the Beijing Nova Program (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z111102054511075, 2011060), Program for Excellent Talents in Beijing (No. 2013D003034000009), the Excellent Overseas-Returnee Scholar Program (Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, to Jiabo Di), Science Foundation of Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute (No. 2014-14).

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    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Minimally Invasive Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China

      Maoxing Liu MD, Beihai Jiang PhD, Ming Cui MD, Jiadi Xing MD, Hong Yang MD, Zaozao Wang PhD, Jiabo Di PhD, Lei Chen MD, Chenghai Zhang MD, Zhendan Yao MD, Nan Zhang MD, Fei Tan MD & Xiangqian Su MD

    2. Center for Bioinformatics, State Key Laboratory of Protein and Plant Gene Research, College of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

      Hong Qu PhD

    3. Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery II, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China

      Zhaode Bu MD

    4. Department of Statistics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA

      Donglai Chen BS

    5. Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Colorectal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China

      Jin Gu MD

    6. Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China

      Ziyu Li MD

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    1. Maoxing Liu MD
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    Corresponding authors

    Correspondence to Jin Gu MD, Ziyu Li MD or Xiangqian Su MD.

    Additional information

    Maoxing Liu, Hong Qu, and Zhaode Bu have contributed equally to this work.

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    Cite this article

    Liu, M., Qu, H., Bu, Z. et al. Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population. Ann Surg Oncol 22, 3881–3887 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-015-4495-2

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    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-015-4495-2

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